This analysis evaluates ocean carrier reliability through the receiving-window lens, focusing on ERD and CY cutoff behavior rather than vessel arrival times.
All metrics use absolute drift and calendar days.
Traditional ETA-based reliability metrics do not capture the operational reality exporters face inside terminal receiving windows.
This framework exists to measure predictability, not punctuality.
The time period during which export cargo can be accepted at the terminal for a given vessel. Defined in this series as the interval between the Earliest Return Date (ERD) and the CY Cutoff.
The first date on which a container may be gated into the terminal for a specific vessel. ERDs may change as vessel schedules or terminal conditions evolve.
The final date and time by which a container must be gated into the terminal to be eligible for loading on the intended vessel. CY cutoffs are frequently adjusted closer to execution.
Any change of one calendar day or more in either the ERD or CY Cutoff between the originally published value and the final observed value.
A receiving window where both ERD and CY Cutoff shift by less than one calendar day over the observation period.
The absolute change (in calendar days) between an originally published ERD or CY Cutoff and its final observed value.
The magnitude of change, in days, for ERD or CY Cutoff respectively. Reported as absolute values for comparability.
A change to ERD or CY Cutoff that occurs within the final 72 hours before the receiving window opens. Late-stage changes are associated with the highest operational impact.
The percentage of port-calls in which the receiving window moved at least once (≥1 day ERD or CY shift).
A composite, normalized score (0-10) representing the relative volatility of a port’s receiving windows. PVI incorporates:
Higher PVI indicates environments where static planning assumptions break more quickly.
A severity indicator used to identify high-impact events, calculated as:
|ERD drift| + |CY drift| + late-stage change flags
Drift Score is used to surface tail-risk scenarios and does not represent average or typical behavior.
A fixed planning allowance (e.g., “2 extra days”) applied uniformly, regardless of observed volatility or timing of changes.
An adaptive planning concept that adjusts buffer expectations based on observed drift behavior, timing, and terminal-specific conditions.
The aggregated, cross-carrier, cross-terminal view of receiving-window behavior used as the reference frame for all carrier-specific analyses in the series.