INDUSTRY INDEX · INAUGURAL REPORT

Terminal Volatility Index

North American Container Terminals · Q1 2026

28Terminals
11Ports
4,485Departures
17K+CRW Changes
Nov 1, 2025 - Mar 31, 2026 (150 days) Published by TradeLanes Vessel Schedule Insights

Executive Summary

The Terminal Volatility Index (TVI) is the first standardized quarterly measure of cargo receiving window stability at North American container terminals. It provides exporters, drayage operators, and freight forwarders with a comparable metric for how reliably a terminal's ERD and CY Cut dates hold between publication and execution.

In Q1 2026, the cross-terminal mean TVI stood at 40.1, with volatility ranging across a 46-point spread within the same port complex. Planning-horizon concentration - the share of CRW changes arriving within 14 days of ERD - averaged 69.3% across all measured terminals.

Terminal volatility is not noise. It is a structural feature of modern container logistics - measurable, comparable, and persistent.

Key Findings

Four structural patterns emerged from 17,000+ CRW change events across the measurement window.

Finding 01 69.3%

Window changes arrive inside the 14-day planning horizon

The period when drayage is being scheduled and exporter options are narrowing - not after execution has begun.

Finding 02 65.3

Seattle leads all regions with the highest TVI scores

West Coast terminals average 14% above the cross-terminal mean, driven by complex alliance rotation structures.

Finding 03 100%

New York/NJ shows planning-horizon concentration at the highest observed level

All CRW changes at Port Newark Container Terminal arrived within 14 days of ERD - no early-arriving changes observed.

Finding 04 28.4

Gulf Coast and Southeast anchor the stable tier

Houston and Norfolk terminals cluster at the low end - a structural planning advantage for agricultural exporters.

Q1 2026 Terminal Rankings

25 ranked terminals across 11 ports. Cross-terminal mean: 34.1.

# Terminal Port TVI Score Tier Schedules
1 Yusen Terminals (YTI) Los Angeles 76.8 High 44
2 Husky Terminal Tacoma 61.3 Elevated 30
3 Washington United Terminal Tacoma 55 Elevated 43
4 TraPac Los Angeles Los Angeles 52 Elevated 49
5 Garden City Terminal Savannah 48.7 Moderate 681
6 Long Beach Container Terminal (LBCT) Long Beach 37.3 Moderate 73
7 Port Liberty New York New York / New Jersey 36.4 Moderate 69
8 Barbours Cut Terminal Houston 35.9 Moderate 81
9 Bayport Container Terminal Houston 34.9 Moderate 169
10 APM Terminal Elizabeth Newark / Elizabeth 34.7 Moderate 93
11 TraPac Oakland Oakland 33.9 Moderate 37
12 Virginia International Gateway Norfolk 31.5 Moderate 340
13 Terminal 5 Seattle 30.2 Moderate 40
14 Pierce County Terminal Tacoma 29.9 Stable 31
15 Everport Terminal Services (Oakland) Oakland 29.4 Stable 58
16 Port Liberty Bayonne New York / New Jersey 29.3 Stable 35
17 Total Terminals International (TTLB) Long Beach 27.3 Stable 72
18 Norfolk International Terminals Norfolk 26.6 Stable 313
19 Pacific Container Terminal Long Beach 26.4 Stable 37
20 Everport Terminal Services (Los Angeles) Los Angeles 26.1 Stable 39
21 Ocean Terminal Savannah 25.3 Stable 66
22 T18 SSA Marine Seattle 20.8 Stable 77
23 Port Newark Container Terminal Newark / Elizabeth 18.3 Stable 168
24 Fenix Marine Services Los Angeles 18.1 Stable 93
25 Oakland International Container Terminal (OICT) Oakland 6.2 Stable 192

When Window Changes Arrive

69.3% of all window changes arrive within 14 days of the ERD. 19.6% arrive within 72 hours - after drayage is dispatched and containers are stuffed.

Beyond 30 days before ERD
2.1%
14-30 days before ERD
9.3%
Within 14 days before ERD
69.3%
Within 72 hours of ERD
19.6%

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Operational Implications

What the data means for how exporters and drayage teams plan execution.

Buffer planning should be terminal-specific

A uniform buffer applied across terminals wastes capacity at stable locations and underprepares for volatile ones. The 46-point within-port spread makes this concrete.

Gate appointment timing requires volatility adjustment

Booking a gate slot at an Elevated-tier terminal at T-3 days carries different execution risk than at a Stable-tier terminal. Current practice treats them the same.

Treat the planning horizon as active monitoring

The 14-day window is not pre-execution. It is where structural change arrives. Lock-in decisions made without monitoring through that window are fragile.

Roll risk planning should be volatility-informed

Terminal tier is a leading indicator of roll risk. Fleet-level roll rates flatten this signal; terminal-level rates reveal it.

Roadmap

What the TVI covers next. Release cadence is quarterly.

Next Up Q2 2026

Six additional ports

Baltimore, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Port Everglades, Miami, Mobile - expanding coverage across the Gulf and East Coasts.

On Deck Q3 2026

Port composites + seasonal profiles

Aggregate port-level volatility indices and a first pass at seasonal variance by commodity gateway.

In The Hole Q3-Q4 2026

Carrier service volatility layer

Service-string-level measurements to distinguish terminal effect from alliance rotation effect.

On the Horizon 2027

Freight rate integration + cost model

Tie TVI tiering to spot and contract rate exposure. A first attempt at a volatility-adjusted cost model for exporters.

Methodology

The Terminal Volatility Index summarizes two things across every vessel schedule at each measured terminal: how often the earliest receiving date (ERD) and the cargo yard cut-off (CY Cut) get revised, and how close to ERD those revisions arrive.

Scope

  • Fields measured: ERD and CY Cut revisions only. Other fields (ETA, ETD, documentation cut, and empty pickup) are excluded to keep the index focused on the cargo receiving window.
  • Trivial revisions excluded: Very small adjustments are filtered out so the index reflects operationally meaningful changes.
  • Outlier handling: Extreme single-vessel revisions are trimmed before scoring so tails do not pull a terminal's score around.

Scoring

Each terminal receives a single score on the published 0-100 scale, with higher scores indicating greater volatility. Stability tiers (Stable / Moderate / Elevated / High) and the score-to-tier assignment follow the internal methodology pack and are held consistent across publications.

Data source and cadence

The underlying data is sourced from terminal and carrier publication feeds, captured in near-real-time and reconciled against final terminal records. The index is published quarterly. The Q1 2026 edition covers the 150-day window from November 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026.

Run the TVI methodology on your own booking book and see where your volumes cluster in the tier distribution.

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Rob Prather
Bill Hewitt,
Frey Commodities
"TradeLanes gives us control over the entire load order process, in real time. I highly recommended signing up to try their new early access product."