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DECISION TIMING BRIEF · WEEKLY SIGNAL LAYER

Week of February 14, 2026

Vessel-level signals from the past seven days. Where schedules moved, which ports crossed the late-stage threshold, and what the next week likely holds.

4Ports covered
47Vessels observed
12Late-stage flags
DETECTION LAYER - updated weekly

This Week's Signal

Late-stage instability concentrated on a single ECNA service this week. Three of the four flagged escalations trace back to the same carrier rotation, suggesting a rotation-level issue rather than a terminal-level one. Houston remained stable. Savannah showed its third consecutive week of elevated late-stage flags - now a pattern worth a monthly diagnosis.

47 Total ERD shifts
1.4d Avg magnitude
12 Late-stage flags

Escalation Watch

Four vessels crossed the escalation threshold this week. Each either registered multiple late-stage flags, shifted by more than 7 days, or compressed the CRW window below the usable-dispatch minimum.

Vessel Voyage Carrier Port Flag Reason Tier
MAERSK NEWARK 412S MAEU Savannah 3 late-stage ERD shifts High
ONE WREN 087E ONEY Oakland CRW window compressed to 28h High
MSC ANNA AV448R MSCU New York/NJ ERD shift +8.2d High
YM TRILLION 017W YML Los Angeles Multiple late-stage CY Cut shifts High

Port of Houston

Stable 6 vessels observed
Vessel Voyage Carrier Service ERD Shift CY Cut Shift Late-Stage Stability
CMA CGM THALASSA 0BX4WE1MA CMDU GGB 0.0d 0.0d No Stable
HYUNDAI SUPREME 0042N MAEU AE5 0.0d 0.0d No Stable
ONE HAMBURG 0084E ONEY EC5 +2.3d +1.8d Yes Elevated
SANTA CRUZ 1042N HLCU PEX3 +0.4d 0.0d No Moderate
MSC OSLO HT521A MSCU NJX 0.0d 0.0d No Stable

Port of Los Angeles

Moderate 12 vessels observed
VesselVoyageCarrierService ERD ShiftCY Cut ShiftLate-StageStability
YM TRILLION 017W YML CEN +5.1d +3.4d Yes High
COSCO SHIPPING ARIES 065E COSU AAC3 +1.5d +1.2d No Moderate
CMA CGM CALLAO CAIWS CMDU PEX1 −0.3d 0.0d No Stable

Port of Oakland

Moderate 10 vessels observed
VesselVoyageCarrierService ERD ShiftCY Cut ShiftLate-StageStability
ONE WREN 087E ONEY FP1 −0.8d 0.0d Yes High
MAERSK WOLFSBURG 452E MAEU TP6 0.0d 0.0d No Stable

Port of Savannah

Elevated 19 vessels observed
VesselVoyageCarrierService ERD ShiftCY Cut ShiftLate-StageStability
MAERSK NEWARK 412S MAEU TP6 +3.2d +2.1d Yes High
MOL PROFICIENCY 250E ONEY ECL +2.0d +1.5d Yes Elevated
CMA CGM CALLAO CAIWS CMDU PEX1 +1.1d 0.0d No Moderate

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Rob Prather
Bill Hewitt,
Frey Commodities
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