VSSI Monthly - February 2026
Port-level vessel schedule stability, with timestamped snapshots retained for dispute defense. The measurement layer underneath the TVI quarterly index.
VSSI Monthly · February 2026
Reader's narrative
The window did not decay in February 2026. It kept moving. The median cargo receiving window measured 129 hours at T-4w across the U.S. export network. By the final snapshot, the median sat at 137 hours. On aggregate, the window expanded across the planning horizon.
Volume tells a different story. The month produced 4,197 CRW revision events across 670 voyages. 57.0% of those events landed beyond T-7 - outside the 72-hour zone where exporters, terminals, and carriers usually fight over the window. The window is still moving. Where in the horizon it moves is what changed.
The mechanism is paired ERD and CY Cut activity. 44.6% of voyages with movement showed both fields revising together. Only 5.2% showed the two fields moving in opposite directions. The failure mode is sustained mid-horizon revision activity, not divergence. In voyage-level terms, the gate window doesn't break - it keeps moving.
VSSI-P (port-level) carries 3 High bands, 5 Elevated, and the rest Moderate or Stable. The pattern is concentration, not network-wide volatility. A few terminals carry the mechanism. Most do not.
USSAV Savannah carries 5 of the month's top-activity voyages - Garden City is the terminal anchor across 23 carriers. The mechanism is cross-carrier but terminal-specific.
EVER FAVOR 022W (EGLV) at USSAV on Feb 12 recorded 34 CRW revisions - the single-voyage signature of February 2026's mid-horizon Sustained Churn pattern.
What this means for planning.
When late-stage volatility dominates, exporters can buffer. Commit at T-4w, recheck at T-3, absorb the last-72-hour shift through reserved equipment and pre-booked appointments. That sequence does not work when 57.0% of events arrive beyond T-7. The buffer moves inside the commit window. Rail commits, labor scheduling, and drayage reservations are placed against a window the schedule has not finished drawing.
The planning-horizon choice is no longer 'commit early at T-4w, recheck at T-3.' It becomes: wait for the voyage's trajectory to settle before committing, or accept that the commitment will be revised mid-flight.
Visibility improved. Decision quality did not - unless the commit horizon moves with the data.
THE LOADED BOX · VSSI MONTHLY
February 2026 · Vessel Schedule Stability Index
The window didn't decay. It kept moving.
Where in the planning horizon the window actually moved - and what that means for commitments still open.
Published May 05, 2026 · Framework TradeLanes VSSI Monthly v1.1 · Companion publication DTB Monthly February 2026
1. The Reading
The median cargo receiving window measured 129 hours at T-4w across the U.S. export network. By T-0d, the median measured 130 hours; the final value sat at 137 hours. On aggregate, the window expanded across the planning horizon.
Volume tells a different story. The month produced 4,197 CRW revision events across 670 voyages. 57.0% of those events landed beyond T-7 - outside the 72-hour zone where exporters, terminals, and carriers usually fight over the window.
The window is still moving. What matters is where in the horizon it moves. Volatility sat outside the compression zone for most of the activity - in the mid-horizon planning window where commitments are being priced. The window became more visible. Whether it became more actionable depends on when the operator's commit deadline lands.
2. The Mechanism
Sustained Churn pattern · Terminal anchor
The mechanism in February 2026 is paired ERD and CY Cut activity. 44.6% of voyages with movement showed both fields revising together (co-moving) - the largest class in the dual-signal breakdown. Only 5.2% showed the two fields moving in opposite directions. The failure mode is sustained mid-horizon revision activity, not synchronization breakdown between the two signals.
And the activity was not evenly distributed. 5 of the post-suppression top-activity voyages departed from USSAV Garden City, Savannah's primary container terminal. The mechanism is cross-carrier but terminal-specific.
The median at T-4w sat at 129 hours and finished at 137 hours. The shape on the chart is a plan that didn't settle - the window kept moving until the calendar caught up.
The three-element read
Contradiction. The median window widened - and 670 voyages produced 4,197 revision events. The aggregate hides where the mechanism operates.
Operator implication. Plans committed at T-4w faced revision activity arriving between T-14 and T-3, inside the same horizon where rail commits lock and dispatch chains warm. The information arrived before the plan closed, but not before the commit chain opened.
Failure mode. Plan committed at T-4w. Mid-horizon revisions arrive in paired cascades at the terminal. The window moves forward. By T-3, the window the operator committed against no longer exists. EVER FAVOR 022W at USSAV (departure February 12, 2026) recorded 34 revisions - 1,512 hours of total absolute motion.
3. Key Metrics
Two metrics reinforce the same finding. Revision events are concentrated mid-horizon. Late-stage share - events landing inside 72h of ERD - sits below the mid-horizon mass.
| Metric | Value (this month) |
|---|---|
| Total events | 4,197 |
| Voyages with movement | 670 |
| Mean events per voyage | 6.3 |
| Beyond T-7 share of events | 57.0% |
| Inside T-3 share of events | 24.3% |
| Co-moving (paired ERD+CY) voyages | 44.6% |
| Diverging (opposite direction) voyages | 5.2% |
| Median window at T-4w | 129h |
| Median window at T-0d | 130h |
| Median window at final | 137h |
The breakdown matters more than the aggregate. Beyond T-14: 31.4%. T-14 to T-7: 25.6%. T-7 to T-3: 18.6%. T-3 to T-1: 8.6%. Final 24h: 4.1%. Post-ERD: 11.6%. The mass sits between T-14 and T-7 - the zone where rail commits and drayage dispatch are being finalized.
4. VSSI-P - Port-Level Snapshot
Where the mechanism operated
| Port | Vessels | Events | Late-stage rate | >7d stability rate | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savannah (USSAV) | 128 | 1861 | 17.8% | 62.1% | High |
| Houston (USHOU) | 114 | 648 | 17.0% | 61.7% | High |
| Norfolk (USORF) | 105 | 514 | 23.4% | 55.8% | Elevated |
| Oakland (USOAK) | 79 | 219 | 47.5% | 32.4% | Elevated |
| Tacoma (USTIW) | 64 | 389 | 26.5% | 64.0% | High |
| Los Angeles (USLAX) | 59 | 240 | 44.2% | 42.9% | Elevated |
| Long Beach (USLGB) | 47 | 369 | 31.7% | 61.0% | Elevated |
| Newark (USEWR) | 38 | 78 | 57.7% | 7.7% | Moderate |
| New York (USNYC) | 28 | 67 | 50.8% | 25.4% | Moderate |
| Seattle (USSEA) | 15 | 29 | 51.7% | 31.0% | Elevated |
Per-port observed patterns:
- Savannah (USSAV) - High. 128 vessels, 1861 CRW revisions. Late-stage (inside 72h) on 17.8% of events; longer-horizon stability movement (>7d) on 62.1%.
- Houston (USHOU) - High. 114 vessels, 648 CRW revisions. Late-stage (inside 72h) on 17.0% of events; longer-horizon stability movement (>7d) on 61.7%.
- Norfolk (USORF) - Elevated. 105 vessels, 514 CRW revisions. Late-stage (inside 72h) on 23.4% of events; longer-horizon stability movement (>7d) on 55.8%.
- Oakland (USOAK) - Elevated. 79 vessels, 219 CRW revisions. Late-stage (inside 72h) on 47.5% of events; longer-horizon stability movement (>7d) on 32.4%.
- Tacoma (USTIW) - High. 64 vessels, 389 CRW revisions. Late-stage (inside 72h) on 26.5% of events; longer-horizon stability movement (>7d) on 64.0%.
- Los Angeles (USLAX) - Elevated. 59 vessels, 240 CRW revisions. Late-stage (inside 72h) on 44.2% of events; longer-horizon stability movement (>7d) on 42.9%.
- Long Beach (USLGB) - Elevated. 47 vessels, 369 CRW revisions. Late-stage (inside 72h) on 31.7% of events; longer-horizon stability movement (>7d) on 61.0%.
- Newark (USEWR) - Moderate. 38 vessels, 78 CRW revisions. Late-stage (inside 72h) on 57.7% of events; longer-horizon stability movement (>7d) on 7.7%. Below the eligibility threshold for primary ranking; observation provided for completeness.
- New York (USNYC) - Moderate. 28 vessels, 67 CRW revisions. Late-stage (inside 72h) on 50.8% of events; longer-horizon stability movement (>7d) on 25.4%. Below the eligibility threshold for primary ranking; observation provided for completeness.
- Seattle (USSEA) - Elevated. 15 vessels, 29 CRW revisions. Late-stage (inside 72h) on 51.7% of events; longer-horizon stability movement (>7d) on 31.0%. Below the eligibility threshold for primary ranking; observation provided for completeness.
Note on Norfolk. The Norfolk band reflects port-level voyage distribution. A subset of MAEU voyages at USORF shows a CY Cut revision pattern under data pipeline review (documented in DTB Monthly Dec 2025, Section 4 methodology note). If confirmed as a pipeline artifact, the corrected band will be reissued in a subsequent edition.
5. Representative Vessel-Level Movements
Supporting sample · curated by the month's pattern · not a ranking
The following vessels illustrate how receiving windows moved in practice. Each card shows the voyage's identification, departure, revision activity, and the dominant pattern in the dual-signal space. The mix reflects the month's distribution - Sustained Churn voyages predominate, with one less-active case included for reference.
EVER FAVOR · USSAV · EGLV / 022W Departure: Feb 12, 2026 CRW revisions: 34 (20 ERD + 14 CY Cut) Total absolute magnitude: 1,512 hours Pattern: Sustained Churn - paired ERD+CY revisions See this vessel in DTB Weekly →
MSC LUCY · USSAV · MSCU / MZ605 Departure: Feb 21, 2026 CRW revisions: 37 (20 ERD + 17 CY Cut) Total absolute magnitude: 1,440 hours Pattern: Sustained Churn - paired ERD+CY revisions See this vessel in DTB Weekly →
EDISON · USSAV · CMDU / TUGZN Departure: Feb 22, 2026 CRW revisions: 25 (13 ERD + 12 CY Cut) Total absolute magnitude: 1,392 hours Pattern: Sustained Churn - paired ERD+CY revisions See this vessel in DTB Weekly →
MSC SINDY · USSAV · MSCU / NO606 Departure: Feb 24, 2026 CRW revisions: 31 (16 ERD + 15 CY Cut) Total absolute magnitude: 1,320 hours Pattern: Sustained Churn - paired ERD+CY revisions See this vessel in DTB Weekly →
MSC GIOVANNA VII · USSAV · MSCU / IV551 Departure: Feb 20, 2026 CRW revisions: 25 (14 ERD + 11 CY Cut) Total absolute magnitude: 1,248 hours Pattern: Sustained Churn - paired ERD+CY revisions See this vessel in DTB Weekly →
6. What This Means for Planning
The decision horizon changes under this pattern.
When late-stage volatility dominates, exporters can buffer. Commit at T-4w, recheck at T-3, absorb the last-72-hour shift through reserved equipment and pre-booked appointments. The system is designed for that decision sequence.
When mid-horizon volatility dominates - and February 2026 sits at 57.0% of events arriving beyond T-7 - the buffer moves inside the commit window. The plan is moving while it is being committed. Rail commits, labor scheduling, and drayage reservations are placed against a window the schedule has not finished drawing.
The planning-horizon choice is no longer 'commit early at T-4w, recheck at T-3.' It becomes: wait for the voyage's trajectory to settle before committing, or accept that the commitment will be revised mid-flight. For a voyage already showing mid-horizon activity, the plan committed at T-4w will not be the plan that executes.
Cost is created when action is taken against a window that hasn't stopped moving. The window at T-4w is not a fiction. But if the same voyage is showing mid-horizon activity, every dollar priced against that T-4w window is priced against a plan that will be rewritten.
7. Bottom Line
February 2026 did not resolve the cargo receiving window. It relocated where the window's instability arrived. Volatility that the system is built to catch inside the 72-hour compression zone now lands between T-14 and T-3, before the commit chain closes.
The mechanism is paired mid-horizon revision activity, concentrated at USSAV Garden City. The window became more visible. Decision quality depends on when the operator's commit deadline lands.
Visibility improved. Decision quality did not - unless the commit horizon moves with the data.
TRADELANES · VSSI MONTHLY · FEBRUARY 2026
tradelanes.co
Appendix A - Measurement Layer
Band vocabulary. Stable - window held through execution. Moderate - window moved within planning tolerance. Elevated - window structure under stress. High - window not reliable for commitment. Used consistently across DTB Weekly, DTB Monthly, and VSSI Monthly.
Outcome classification. Compressed - final window narrower than original. Mixed - ERD and CY Cut moved in opposite directions. Late expansion - both shifts in the same direction past the planning tolerance. Moderate drift - small same-direction shift. Stable - window held within tolerance with no late-stage flag. Applied in strict precedence order; first match wins.
Sustained Churn. Voyage-level volatility pattern describing windows that keep moving through the planning horizon without settling. The classification thresholds live in the internal methodology appendix and are not published.
Late-stage qualifier. Inside 72h, inside 24h, or outside 72h, measured as the time between the latest revision event and ERD_final.
Methodology note. Analysis covers February 2026 U.S. departures with observable schedule revisions. 4,197 events across 670 voyages. VSSI-P bands computed from voyage-level distribution; classification thresholds live in the internal methodology appendix and are not published.
Carrier-terminal suppression carry-forward. A pipeline artifact in CY Cut revisions for Maersk vessels at Norfolk's primary container terminal - first identified in DTB Monthly Dec 2025 - remains active. 5 MAEU/USORF voyages appear in residual top-activity lists with CY Cut activity that does not reflect underlying terminal behavior. These voyages are excluded from concentration findings and Norfolk band assignments in this edition. A fuller treatment will appear once engineering review resolves the underlying data.
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