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INDUSTRY INDEX · INAUGURAL REPORT

Terminal Volatility Index

North American Container Terminals · Q1 2026

28Terminals
11Ports
4,485Departures
17K+CRW Changes
Nov 1, 2025 - Mar 31, 2026 (150 days) Published by TradeLanes Vessel Schedule Insights

Executive Summary

The Terminal Volatility Index (TVI) is the first standardized quarterly measure of cargo receiving window stability at North American container terminals. It provides exporters, drayage operators, and freight forwarders with a comparable metric for how reliably a terminal's ERD and CY Cut dates hold between publication and execution.

In Q1 2026, the cross-terminal mean TVI stood at 40.1, with volatility ranging across a 46-point spread within the same port complex. Planning-horizon concentration - the share of CRW changes arriving within 14 days of ERD - averaged 69.3% across all measured terminals.

Terminal volatility is not noise. It is a structural feature of modern container logistics - measurable, comparable, and persistent.

Key Findings

Four structural patterns emerged from 17,000+ CRW change events across the measurement window.

Finding 01 69.3%

Window changes arrive inside the 14-day planning horizon

The period when drayage is being scheduled and exporter options are narrowing - not after execution has begun.

Finding 02 65.3

Seattle leads all regions with the highest TVI scores

West Coast terminals average 14% above the cross-terminal mean, driven by complex alliance rotation structures.

Finding 03 100%

New York/NJ shows planning-horizon concentration at the highest observed level

All CRW changes at Port Newark Container Terminal arrived within 14 days of ERD - no early-arriving changes observed.

Finding 04 28.4

Gulf Coast and Southeast anchor the stable tier

Houston and Norfolk terminals cluster at the low end - a structural planning advantage for agricultural exporters.

Q1 2026 Terminal Rankings

28 terminals across 11 ports. Cross-terminal mean: 40.1. Volatility varies by 46 index points within the same port complex.

# Terminal Port TVI Score Tier Schedules
1 ITS Long Beach Long Beach 68.4 Elevated 11
2 T18 - SSA Marine Seattle 65.3 Elevated 69
3 Port Newark Container Terminal New York/NJ 60.4 Elevated 148
4 Yusen Terminals (YTI) Los Angeles 50.2 Elevated 142
5 Terminal 5 Seattle 49.9 Moderate 65
6 Fenix Marine Services Long Beach 49.7 Moderate 30
7 Total Terminals (TTLB) Long Beach 48.1 Moderate 96
8 West Basin Container Terminal Los Angeles 47.1 Moderate 18
9 Garden City Terminal Savannah 46.2 Moderate 611
10 APM Pier 400 Los Angeles 44.8 Moderate 66
11 APM Terminal Elizabeth New York/NJ 43.9 Moderate 82
12 TraPac Los Angeles Los Angeles 43.0 Moderate 140
13 Pierce County Terminal Tacoma 42.1 Moderate 33
14 Husky Terminal Tacoma 41.2 Moderate 142
15 TraPac Oakland Oakland 39.8 Moderate 557
16 Port Liberty New York New York/NJ 36.6 Moderate 85
17 LBCT Long Beach 34.5 Moderate 86
18 Washington United Terminal (WUT) Tacoma 33.5 Moderate 197
19 Oakland International (OICT) Oakland 33.3 Moderate 494
20 Everport Terminal Services Oakland 31.0 Moderate 50
21 Barbours Cut Houston 28.5 Stable 296
22 Norfolk International Terminals Norfolk 28.4 Stable 274
23 Bayport Container Terminal Houston 28.3 Stable 296
24 Ocean Terminal Savannah 27.3 Stable 62
25 Virginia Gateway Terminal Norfolk 27.3 Stable 299
26 Pacific Container Terminal Long Beach 27.2 Stable 42
27 Port Liberty Bayonne New York/NJ 24.4 Stable 49
28 Everport Los Angeles Los Angeles 22.5 Stable 35

When Window Changes Arrive

69.3% of all window changes arrive within 14 days of the ERD. 19.6% arrive within 72 hours - after drayage is dispatched and containers are stuffed.

Beyond 30 days before ERD
2.1%
14-30 days before ERD
9.3%
Within 14 days before ERD
69.3%
Within 72 hours of ERD
19.6%

Want to see the timing profile on your own vessels and bookings? Ava pulls the same signal on every shipment you track.

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Operational Implications

What the data means for how exporters and drayage teams plan execution.

Buffer planning should be terminal-specific

A uniform buffer applied across terminals wastes capacity at stable locations and underprepares for volatile ones. The 46-point within-port spread makes this concrete.

Gate appointment timing requires volatility adjustment

Booking a gate slot at an Elevated-tier terminal at T-3 days carries different execution risk than at a Stable-tier terminal. Current practice treats them the same.

Treat the planning horizon as active monitoring

The 14-day window is not pre-execution. It is where structural change arrives. Lock-in decisions made without monitoring through that window are fragile.

Roll risk planning should be volatility-informed

Terminal tier is a leading indicator of roll risk. Fleet-level roll rates flatten this signal; terminal-level rates reveal it.

Roadmap

What the TVI covers next. Release cadence is quarterly.

Next Up Q2 2026

Six additional ports

Baltimore, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Port Everglades, Miami, Mobile - expanding coverage across the Gulf and East Coasts.

On Deck Q3 2026

Port composites + seasonal profiles

Aggregate port-level volatility indices and a first pass at seasonal variance by commodity gateway.

In The Hole Q3-Q4 2026

Carrier service volatility layer

Service-string-level measurements to distinguish terminal effect from alliance rotation effect.

On the Horizon 2027

Freight rate integration + cost model

Tie TVI tiering to spot and contract rate exposure. A first attempt at a volatility-adjusted cost model for exporters.

Methodology

The Terminal Volatility Index aggregates two measurements across every vessel schedule at each measured terminal: the frequency of changes to the earliest receiving date (ERD) and the cargo yard cut-off (CY Cut), and the timing of those changes relative to ERD.

Scope

  • Fields measured: ERD and CY Cut revisions only. Other fields (ETA, ETD, documentation cut, and empty pickup) are excluded to keep the index focused on the cargo receiving window.
  • Magnitude filter: Revisions with absolute magnitude under a noise threshold are excluded.
  • Outlier trim: A 95th-percentile trim is applied within the measurement window to prevent single-vessel tails from driving the score.

Index construction

For each terminal, the raw change-event distribution is normalized against the cross-terminal baseline and composited into a 0-100 scale. Higher scores indicate greater volatility. Tier boundaries are set by standard deviation bands from the cross-terminal mean.

Data source and cadence

The underlying data is sourced from terminal and carrier publication feeds, captured in near-real-time and reconciled against final terminal records. The index is published quarterly. The Q1 2026 edition covers the 150-day window from November 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026.

Run the TVI methodology on your own booking book and see where your volumes cluster in the tier distribution.

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Rob Prather
Bill Hewitt,
Frey Commodities
"TradeLanes gives us control over the entire load order process, in real time. I highly recommended signing up to try their new early access product."