Terminal 5
Seattle (USSEA) - Q1 2026 cohort.
Terminal stability
Moderate stability -- production rank 13 for the Q1 2026 cohort. 3 carriers, 5 services, 40 voyages observed in the cohort window. Terminal cadence: Hybrid.
Rank should be read as a band, not a precise placement. Bootstrap rank-stability lands between the precise and illustrative thresholds.
What the data shows
Cohort window: November 1, 2025 through April 1, 2026 (5-month inaugural baseline).
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Events per schedule | 2.7 |
| Planning-horizon-correct rate | 63.5% |
| Late-stage rate | 9.3% |
| Median schedule shift magnitude | 48 hours (2.0 days) |
| Voyages observed | 40 |
| Voyages classified | 35 |
Where the volatility shows up
| Diagnostic | Share |
|---|---|
| ERD volatility share | 35.0% |
| CY Cut volatility share | 40.0% |
| CRW compression share | 17.5% |
| Late-stage shifts within 72 hours | 15.0% |
| Late-stage shifts within 24 hours | 0.0% |
| Sustained-churn share | 5.7% |
Dominant carriers (top 3)
MSC (MSCU), EGL, Maersk (MAEU)
Source composition
| Source | Share |
|---|---|
| Terminal-sourced | 100.0% |
| Carrier-sourced | 0.0% |
| Scraper-sourced | 0.0% |
Six-flag disclosure
| Disclosure | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample sufficiency | sufficient |
| Rank uncertain | Yes |
| Rank stability | 35.5% |
| Label stability | 47.3% |
| Event concentration flag | No |
| Zero-event voyages share | 30.0% |
| Display rank treatment | treat-as-band |
| Snapshot coverage gap | No |
The six-flag structure is the published per-terminal uncertainty disclosure. Together they answer: is the sample large enough to rank, is the rank stable across bootstrap iterations, does the tier label hold under resampling, are the events concentrated in too few voyages, and is the snapshot coverage adequate for the cohort window.
Methodology
This terminal's metrics derive from the Q1 2026 inaugural cohort, anchor-calibrated under Option 2.5 (5-mo p01/p99) - locked 2026-04-28. The cohort window is November 1, 2025 through April 1, 2026 (5-month inaugural baseline). Methodology version 1.0.
For the full methodology, terminal rankings, and per-tier interpretation, see Terminal Volatility Index, Q1 2026.
Related publications
Reader's note
Terminal 5 (Seattle) is a Moderate-stability terminal at production rank 13 for the Q1 2026 cohort. Below is the publishable per-terminal disclosure, including the six-flag uncertainty structure and dominant-carrier composition. The full methodology is documented at the Terminal Volatility Index Q1 2026 publication.
For the full quarterly index, methodology, and per-terminal narrative context, see the inaugural Terminal Volatility Index publication.
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