Safe-to-Gate Weekly

Sunday 30 November 2025 through Saturday 6 December 2025

Published: Monday 8 December 2025 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2025-11-30/

1. Weekly Note

Curator fill: 2 to 4 factual sentences. At least one concrete anchor required (named vessel with magnitude, OR threshold-crossing port stat). Draw anchors from outputs/narrative_candidates.md. No interpretation, no mechanism, no verdict.

Draft starter (replace with curated version):

This week covers vessel-voyages that departed U.S. export gateways between Sunday 30 November and Saturday 6 December 2025. Savannah showed the highest share of High classification at 62.5%. Savannah held the largest outlier with ONE MAGNIFICENCE 0082W at ERD +10.0d and CY Cut +10.0d. Newark and Seattle remained the stable baselines with zero late-stage movement. Full vessel tables below.

2. Signal, Not Verdict

Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.

3. Port Summary

Covered ports: 11 U.S. export gateways. Charleston (USCHS) had zero departures in the week window and is omitted per framework Section 6.

4. Quick Scan Layer

Curator fill: 3 to 5 port-level lines, same order as Port Summary. Must restate a Port Summary metric. No vessel names, no cross-port synthesis.

Draft starter lines (replace or trim to 3-5):

• Savannah: 56.2% late-stage movement across 32 vessels.
• Tacoma: 33.3% of vessels classified High across 3 total.
• Long Beach: 54.5% late-stage movement across 11 vessels.
• Houston: Elevated at the port level, 22 vessels.
• Norfolk: High at the port level, 11 vessels.
• Los Angeles: Moderate at the port level, 17 vessels.
• Oakland: Stable at the port level, 16 vessels.

5. Per-Port Vessel Tables

Savannah · USSAV · 32 vessels this week

Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.

Tacoma · USTIW · 3 vessels this week

Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.

Long Beach · USLGB · 11 vessels this week

Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.

Houston · USHOU · 22 vessels this week

Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.

Norfolk · USORF · 11 vessels this week

Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.

Los Angeles · USLAX · 17 vessels this week

Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.

Oakland · USOAK · 16 vessels this week

Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.

Newark · USEWR · 22 vessels this week

Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.

New York · USNYC · 4 vessels this week

Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.

Seattle · USSEA · 7 vessels this week

Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.

6. Weekly Signal Flags

Curator fill: 3 to 5 bulleted flags. Cross-port or cross-carrier-service patterns only. Each flag must introduce an observation not already visible in Port Summary. Name specific vessels when an outlier cluster (>=2 vessels with shift >20d at one port) exists. Cite the stat. No interpretation.

Draft starter candidates (see outputs/narrative_candidates.md for full list):

• MAEU/MECL: 3 of this carrier-service's 4 vessels this week classified High.
• MSCU/EMUSA: 2 of this carrier-service's 3 vessels this week classified High.
• Newark baseline stability: zero late-stage movement observed across 22 vessels.

7. Ports to Watch

Curator fill: 1 to 3 short paragraphs naming what is being monitored into the Safe-to-Gate Monthly pipeline. Cite trigger stats. State next-tier gate reference. No interpretation of why.

Savannah (USSAV) warrants extra buffer this week. 62.5% of vessels classified High, 56.2% showed late-stage movement across 32 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.

8. Close

Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly, see the ladder below for how weekly detection feeds monthly diagnosis. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 7 December 2025. For monthly context, see the December 2025 VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.

Appendix A

Stability classification thresholds and late-stage flag definition carry forward each week from the Safe-to-Gate Weekly framework (v1.1). See the framework document for the full methodology reference.