THE LOADED BOX · SAFE-TO-GATE WEEKLY EDITION
Safe-to-Gate Weekly - Week of December 13, 2025
Vessel-level signals from the past seven days: where schedules moved, which ports warrant extra buffer, and what the week ahead likely holds.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly · 7-13 December 2025
Reader's narrative
Savannah ran the week. 46 vessels through the gateway. 67.4% classified High.
The largest single-voyage shift came from CMA CGM CALLAO CAIWS (CMDU) at Savannah - ERD +14.0d and CY Cut +14.0d from the originally published window.
The cross-port pattern shows up in carrier-service clusters: MSCU/CHINOOK recorded 3 of its 4 vessels High this week. MSCU/EMUSA recorded 2 of 3. The instability is service-shaped, not just port-shaped.
Savannah and Long Beach are on the watch list. If the pattern holds another week, the ports carry into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate. the watch list is not a verdict - it is a flag that the next gate is being watched.
How to read the publication.
Section 3 (Port Summary) gives the network shape. Section 5 (Per-Port Vessel Tables) lists every vessel that departed - 191 rows total - with original-vs-actual CRW, shift magnitude, late-stage flag, and stability classification. The vessel tables are the unit of truth. Everything else is summary.
Sustained Churn - paired ERD and CY Cut activity persisting through the planning horizon - is the cross-month pattern these weeklies feed into. The mechanism is described in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly. The weekly tables show where it surfaced.
A noisy week is workload. A noisy week inside the planning horizon is failure.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly
Sunday 7 December 2025 through Saturday 13 December 2025
Published: Monday 15 December 2025 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2025-12-07/
1. Weekly Note
This week covers vessel-voyages that departed U.S. export gateways between Sunday 7 December 2025 and Saturday 13 December 2025. Savannah showed the highest share of High classification at 67.4%. Savannah held the largest single-voyage shift with CMA CGM CALLAO CAIWS at ERD +14.0d and CY Cut +14.0d. Full vessel tables below.
2. Signal, Not Verdict
Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.
3. Port Summary
| Port | Vessels this week | % High | % Late-stage | Dominant direction | Port stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USSAV Savannah | 46 | 67.4% | 67.4% | Mixed | High |
| USSEA Seattle | 9 | 33.3% | 22.2% | Late-biased | Elevated |
| USLAX Los Angeles | 14 | 28.6% | 14.3% | Mixed | High |
| USLGB Long Beach | 9 | 22.2% | 44.4% | Late-biased | Elevated |
| USTIW Tacoma | 9 | 11.1% | 11.1% | Early-biased | Moderate |
| USORF Norfolk | 37 | 10.8% | 32.4% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USHOU Houston | 22 | 9.1% | 18.2% | Mixed | Moderate |
| USEWR Newark | 21 | 4.8% | 9.5% | Mixed | Stable |
| USOAK Oakland | 21 | 0.0% | 4.8% | Mixed | Stable |
| USNYC New York | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Stable | Stable |
Covered ports: 10 U.S. export gateways. Charleston (USCHS) had zero departures in the week window and is omitted per framework Section 6.
4. Quick Scan Layer
- Savannah: 67.4% late-stage movement across 46 vessels.
- Seattle: 33.3% of vessels classified High across 9 total.
- Los Angeles: 28.6% of vessels classified High across 14 total.
- Long Beach: 9 vessels, Elevated at the port level.
- Norfolk: 37 vessels, Elevated at the port level.
5. Per-Port Vessel Tables
Savannah · USSAV · 46 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMA CGM CALLAO · CAIWS · CMDU/CAGEMA | ERD Nov 12 | CY Cut Nov 18-> ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD +14.0dCY +14.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MEDKON PEP · CAIYS · CMDU/CAGEMA | ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 1-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +9.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| WAN HAI A10 · W011 · WHLC/AA7 | ERD Nov 21 | CY Cut Nov 27-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 6 |
ERD +9.0dCY +9.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| YM TRAVEL · 024W · YMLU/PEC2 | ERD Nov 20 | CY Cut Nov 26-> ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +9.0dCY +8.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| X-PRESS ANTLIA · 13E · COSU/EMA | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +8.0dCY +8.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| EVER FULL · 017W · EGLV/OAAWE4 | ERD Nov 20 | CY Cut Nov 26-> ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| OOCL FRANCE · 067W · COSU/OALP1 | ERD Nov 23 | CY Cut Nov 29-> ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| KINGSTON · 017E · ONEY/EMA | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC TEXAS · MZ548 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC YOKOHAMA · IU549 · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 6 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MUKADDES KALKAVAN · USAWE · TRKU/TURKON | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 6-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +2.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| THESEUS · 041W · EGLV/OAAWE4 | ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| VANCOUVER STAR · 549E · HLCU/GTEX | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| ZIM SAMMY OFER · 12W · ZIMU/MZCP | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 6 |
ERD +3.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ARTEMIS · UF549 · MSCU/ADHOC | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 6-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC KIM · UF549 · MSCU/MUSWASA | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 6-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +1.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC MARIANNA · IV543 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 6 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC PASSION III · PH549 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 6 |
ERD -1.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ZIM PACIFIC · 357E · ZIMU/ZCA | ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CCNI ARAUCO · 549W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 6-> ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER MASS · 006W · EGLV/OAAUE | ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| KIEL EXPRESS · 549E · HLCU/GTA2AL3 | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 6-> ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC ELENI · NO550 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC INGRID · IU546 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| OOCL BANGKOK · 066W · OOLU/OALP2 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| SOUTHAMPTON EXPRESS · 548W · HLCU/GTP16US4 | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 6-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 6 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| STEPHANIE C · 5243 · HLCU/INDAMEX | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ZIM XIAMEN · 19W · ZIMU/MEMERALD | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| LUCIE SCHULTE · 550S · MAEU/SAE | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK PITTSBURGH · 549E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| NILEDUTCH LION · 5244 · HLCU/INDAMEX | ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER EXCEL · 188E · EGLV/OAONEAT2 | ERD Nov 24 | CY Cut Nov 29-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 6 |
ERD +6.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CONTI CONTESSA · 022W · ONEY/PEC1 | ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 6 |
ERD +4.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| APL SOUTHAMPTON · TUG7N · CMDU/OAAWE3 | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 6 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| COSCO SHIPPING ORCHID · 031W · COSU/OALP1 | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Moderate |
| MSC ROCHELLE · UA548 · MSCU/MSCESA1 | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 6-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +1.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MAERSK CALABAR · 548E · MAEU/GTA12AL6 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| SEROJA LIMA · 550W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM BIANCA · INL4E · CMDU/INDAMEX2 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM GREEN · RPKNS · CMDU/RTWSB | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM RED · RPK6N · CMDU/RTWNB | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM RED · RPK6N · CMDU/RTWNB | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| LUCIE SCHULTE · 550S · MAEU/SAE | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC KUMSAL · IV543 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 6-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC SYDNEY VI · NH547 · MSCU/ADHOC | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR COSTA RICA · 550S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Seattle · USSEA · 9 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC RIDA VIII · 547R · MSCU/CHINOOK | ERD Nov 14 | CY Cut Nov 20-> ERD Nov 14 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +13.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC RANIA · 549R · MSCU/CHINOOK | ERD Nov 21 | CY Cut Nov 27-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +10.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MSC EMANUELA · 548R · MSCU/CHINOOK | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +5.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC RANIA VIII · 549R · MSCU/CHINOOK | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +3.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CAPE KORTIA · 550R · EGL/UNKN | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM GANGES · 0TNH4 · CMDU/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| LONG BEACH EXPRESS · 550S · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SM PORTLAND · 2507W · SMC/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SM SEOUL · 2508W · SMC/UNKN | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Los Angeles · USLAX · 14 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYK VESTA · 092W · ONEY/PS3 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY -6.4d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| EVER MODE · 1428-005W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Nov 21 | CY Cut Nov 28-> ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +5.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE ORPHEUS · 0FJMAW1MA · CMDU/FUJI | ERD Nov 24 | CY Cut Nov 26-> ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD +2.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| NYK NEBULA · 090E · ONEY/AL5 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY -3.4d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| EVER LEADING · 1195W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +3.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| HUDSON EXPRESS · 550W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.3d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| EVER MAX · 1429-013W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HUDSON EXPRESS · 550W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| KANDLA EXPRESS · 546W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK ALTAIR · 551W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK ANTARES · 550W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE HAMBURG · · CMDU/FP1 | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE ORPHEUS · 0075 · ONEY/075W | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE ORPHEUS · · CMDU/FP1 | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Long Beach · USLGB · 9 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OOCL UTAH · 080 · COSU/PSX | ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Nov 28-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +6.0dCY +10.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC DEILA · 549S · MSCU/SENTOSA | ERD Nov 19 | CY Cut Nov 28-> ERD Nov 19 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CSCL YELLOW SEA · 067W · CHN/UNKN | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +5.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| HMM OPAL · 0008W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Nov 19 | CY Cut Dec 1-> ERD Nov 19 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.2d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| COSCO SHIPPING YANGPU · 003 · COSU/PVCS | ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK SEQUOIA · 550S · MAEU/U8E | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| COSCO EUROPE · 109W · COSU/UNKN | ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE ORPHEUS · 0075 · ONEY/075W | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SEATTLE EXPRESS · 548 · HLCU/PANZ | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Tacoma · USTIW · 9 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONE MATRIX · 0100 · ONEY/100W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD -8.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| SEATTLE BRIDGE · 100 · ONEY/PN1 | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD -3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MAERSK SARNIA · 550W · MAEU/WC4 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CONTI CRYSTAL · 0142 · ONEY/142W | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ETSTIW · EVER MACH · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ETSTIW · EVER SMILE · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER MACH · 1427-013W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER SMILE · 0137-129W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE MATRIX · 100 · ONEY/PN3 | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Norfolk · USORF · 37 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEPHANIE C · 5243A · HLCU/TPI | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -8.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC BREMEN · UA549A · MSCU/MD | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| SAN FRANCISCO BRIDGE · 083W · ONEY/WIN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| OOCL SEOUL · 116E · COSU/TA2 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| TSINGTAO EXPRESS · 2516W · HLCU/AA7 | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -6.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM POINTE DU PITON · 0XR9IW1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| HYUNDAI PLUTO · 043W · ONEY/EC2 | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK FREDERICIA · 550E · MAEU/TA3 | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD -3.0dCY -3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM ARGENTINA · 1TUGBN1 · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM INNOVATION · 0MRJUE1 · CMDU/AMERIGO | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| SANTA CATARINA · 550E · MAEU/TA3 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +1.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ATLANTIC SAIL · ATS5525 · ACLU/ACL-A | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 25450N · CCBZ/BAL | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK CHICAGO · 548E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| POLAR COSTA RICA · 550S · MAEU/NAE | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| KINGSTON · 017E · ONEY/AL8 | ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +1.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ZIM MOUNT ELBRUS · 008W · ZIMU/ZCP | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| EVER MATCH · 1329W · EGLV/LP2 | ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| APL OREGON · 0INL6E1 · CMDU/EIS | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| APL SOUTHAMPTON · 1TUG7N1 · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| LONDON EXPRESS · 550E · HLCU/TEX | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC MONICA CRISTINA · FD543E · MSCU/DRAGON | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ONE MUNCHEN · 042W · ONEY/EC3 | ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| STEPHANIE C · 5243 · HLCU/TPI | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| VANCOUVER STAR · 549E · HLCU/TEX | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM MISSOURI · 0XR9SW1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM POINTE NOIRE · 0XR9IW1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK MONTANA · 549E · MAEU/801 | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK OHIO · 547W · MAEU/801 | ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 29 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC TASMAN VI · NO549E · MSCU/NEUSEC2 | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC TEXAS · MZ548R · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NHAVA SHEVA EXPRESS · 549W · HLCU/US2 | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| PORTO CHELI · 549E · MAEU/AL6 | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SHANGHAI EXPRESS · 550W · HLCU/US4 | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| TANGIER EXPRESS · 549W · HLCU/US4 | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| X PRESS ANTLIA · 013E · COSU/AL8 | ERD Nov 23 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Nov 23 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM TRAVEL · 024W · YMLU/EC2 | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Houston · USHOU · 22 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC PETRA · 548S · MSCU/SCS | ERD Nov 24 | CY Cut Nov 28-> ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 1 |
ERD +1.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC PETRA · 548S · MSCU/SCS | ERD Nov 24 | CY Cut Nov 28-> ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 1 |
ERD +1.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC DUBAI VII · MG549E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 1-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +5.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC DUBAI VII · MG549E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 1-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +5.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM BERLIOZ · 1GB1BS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Nov 24 | CY Cut Nov 28-> ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 1 |
ERD +1.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM BERLIOZ · 1GB1BS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Nov 24 | CY Cut Nov 28-> ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 1 |
ERD +1.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK TENNESSEE · 550E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK TENNESSEE · 550E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK CHICAGO · 548E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MAERSK CHICAGO · 548E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MAERSK SAIGON · 549W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MAERSK SAIGON · 549W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| YM MOVEMENT · 083W · YMLU/EC4 | ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| YM MOVEMENT · 083W · YMLU/EC4 | ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CHENNAI EXPRESS · 548E · HLCU/MGX | ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CHENNAI EXPRESS · 548E · HLCU/MGX | ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM ALMAVIVA · 0PGM8W1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM ALMAVIVA · 0PGM8W1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC CORUNA · NH549R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC CORUNA · NH549R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC TAVVISHI VI · IV549R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC TAVVISHI VI · IV549R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Newark · USEWR · 21 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC SUAPE VII · 549W · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC DANIELA · 545E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CONTI MAKALU · 549E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| LICA MAERSK · 548W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| LONDON EXPRESS · 550E · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK FREDERICIA · 550E · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK NACALA · 550S · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK SEMBAWANG · 550E · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK TAURUS · 548W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC BREMEN · 549A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC CAROLINA · 544A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ESTHI · 545R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC LYON · 550A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ORION · 547E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC VANESSA · 541A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NEVZAT KALKAVAN · 0USB4E1TK · TRKU/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OSAKA EXPRESS · 550W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| RDO FORTUNE · 550S · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SANTA CATARINA · 550E · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| TANGIER EXPRESS · 549W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Nov 24 | CY Cut Nov 26-> ERD Nov 24 | CY Cut Nov 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| WAN HAI A08 · W014 · WHLC/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Oakland · USOAK · 21 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMM OPAL · 008W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +6.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EVER MODE · 1428-005W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +4.0dCY +6.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| EVER FRANK · 1194-028W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +5.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| HMM DIAMOND · 007W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| HMM GARAM · 017W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| PRESIDENT GRANT · 0DBMY · CMDU/EX1APL | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| APL DUBLIN · 1TUFD · APL/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER FORE · 1195-021W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER LOGIC · 1195-081W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER MOST · 1428-006W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GUNDE MAERSK · 550W · MAEU/708 | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM DIAMOND · 0007 · ONEY/007W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| JANET MARIE · 063W · PHH/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MATE · 549S · SUD/UNKN | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ARIANE · 550S · MSCU/SENTOSA | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC FRANCESCA · 549S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC VANDYA · 547S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE ARCADIA · 0074 · ONEY/074W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE ORPHEUS · 0075 · ONEY/075W | ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2-> ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE SPRINTER · 002W · ONEY/UNKN | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM UNIFORMITY · 0080 · ONEY/080W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
New York · USNYC · 3 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYUNDAI EARTH · 053 · ONEY/EC1 | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE MUNCHEN · 042-2 · ONEY/EC3L | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 7-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 7 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE WREN · 028-2 · ONEY/EC3L | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
6. Weekly Signal Flags
- MSCU/CHINOOK: 3 of this carrier-service's 4 vessels this week classified High.
- MSCU/EMUSA: 2 of this carrier-service's 3 vessels this week classified High.
7. Ports to Watch
Savannah (USSAV) warrants extra buffer this week. 67.4% of vessels classified High, 67.4% showed late-stage movement across 46 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Long Beach (USLGB) warrants extra buffer this week. 22.2% of vessels classified High, 44.4% showed late-stage movement across 9 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
8. Close
Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly, see the ladder below for how weekly detection feeds monthly diagnosis. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 14 December 2025. For monthly context, see the December 2025 VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.
Appendix A
Stability classification thresholds and late-stage flag definition carry forward each week from the Safe-to-Gate Weekly framework (v1.1). See the framework document for the full methodology reference.
Explore Related Intelligence
MONTHLY · DIAGNOSIS
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Terminal-level structural measurement across the quarter.
Bill Hewitt,
Frey Commodities
Frey Commodities
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