Safe-to-Gate Weekly - Week of December 20, 2025
Vessel-level signals from the past seven days: where schedules moved, which ports warrant extra buffer, and what the week ahead likely holds.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly · 14-20 December 2025
Reader's narrative
Savannah ran the week. 38 vessels through the gateway. 78.9% classified High.
The largest single-voyage shift came from MSC VANESSA IV539 (MSCU) at Savannah - ERD +22.0d and CY Cut +22.0d from the originally published window.
The cross-port pattern shows up in carrier-service clusters: CMDU/CBX recorded 2 of its 4 vessels High this week. The instability is service-shaped, not just port-shaped.
On the other end of the spectrum, Oakland, Los Angeles, and Seattle held with zero late-stage movement. The contrast matters: instability is concentrated, not network-wide.
Savannah and Long Beach are on the watch list. If the pattern holds another week, the ports carry into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate. the watch list is not a verdict - it is a flag that the next gate is being watched.
How to read the publication.
Section 3 (Port Summary) gives the network shape. Section 5 (Per-Port Vessel Tables) lists every vessel that departed - 151 rows total - with original-vs-actual CRW, shift magnitude, late-stage flag, and stability classification. The vessel tables are the unit of truth. Everything else is summary.
Sustained Churn - paired ERD and CY Cut activity persisting through the planning horizon - is the cross-month pattern these weeklies feed into. The mechanism is described in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly. The weekly tables show where it surfaced.
A noisy week is workload. A noisy week inside the planning horizon is failure.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly
Sunday 14 December 2025 through Saturday 20 December 2025
Published: Monday 22 December 2025 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2025-12-14/
1. Weekly Note
This week covers vessel-voyages that departed U.S. export gateways between Sunday 14 December 2025 and Saturday 20 December 2025. Savannah showed the highest share of High classification at 78.9%. Savannah held the largest single-voyage shift with MSC VANESSA IV539 at ERD +22.0d and CY Cut +22.0d. Oakland, Los Angeles, and Seattle remained the stable baselines with zero late-stage movement. Full vessel tables below.
2. Signal, Not Verdict
Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.
3. Port Summary
| Port | Vessels this week | % High | % Late-stage | Dominant direction | Port stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USSAV Savannah | 38 | 78.9% | 81.6% | Mixed | High |
| USNYC New York | 3 | 33.3% | 33.3% | Late-biased | High |
| USLGB Long Beach | 9 | 22.2% | 77.8% | Late-biased | Elevated |
| USHOU Houston | 24 | 8.3% | 41.7% | Mixed | High |
| USORF Norfolk | 32 | 6.2% | 21.9% | Mixed | Moderate |
| USTIW Tacoma | 5 | 0.0% | 40.0% | Mixed | Moderate |
| USEWR Newark | 16 | 0.0% | 31.2% | Mixed | Moderate |
| USOAK Oakland | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Mixed | Moderate |
| USLAX Los Angeles | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Mixed | Stable |
| USSEA Seattle | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Stable | Stable |
Covered ports: 10 U.S. export gateways. Charleston (USCHS) had zero departures in the week window and is omitted per framework Section 6.
4. Quick Scan Layer
- Savannah: 81.6% late-stage movement across 38 vessels.
- New York: 33.3% of vessels classified High across 3 total.
- Long Beach: 77.8% late-stage movement across 9 vessels.
- Houston: 24 vessels, High at the port level.
- Norfolk: 32 vessels, Moderate at the port level.
5. Per-Port Vessel Tables
Savannah · USSAV · 38 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC VANESSA · IV539 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Nov 15 | CY Cut Nov 21-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 13 |
ERD +22.0dCY +22.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| ZIM CHINA · 49E · ZIMU/ZCA | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +8.0dCY +8.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| PORTO CHELI · 549E · MAEU/GTA12AL6 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM POINTE DU PITON · XR9IW · CMDU/CBX | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +6.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM INNOVATION · MRY1E · CMDU/TA1AL6 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 13 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE IBIS · 035W · ONEY/PEC2 | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM ARGENTINA · TUG3N · CMDU/OAAWE3 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| NEVZAT KALKAVAN · USB4E · TRKU/TURKON | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| ZIM THAILAND · 14W · ZIMU/MZCP | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC CAROLINA · IV544 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 13-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC ESTHI · MZ549 · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC LYON · UF550 · MSCU/MUSWASA | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE MADRID · 028W · ONEY/PEC3 | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| OOCL EGYPT · 071W · OOLU/OALP2 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 13-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| SAN FRANCISCO BRIDGE · 0083W · ONEY/WIN | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| POLAR COSTA RICA · 550S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CLEMENTINE MAERSK · 550E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 13 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM POINTE-NOIRE · XR9KW · CMDU/CBX | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 13-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| TANGIER EXPRESS · 549W · HLCU/GTP16US4 | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 13-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +1.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| TSINGTAO EXPRESS · 2516W · HLCU/AA7 | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| APL OREGON · INL6E · CMDU/INDAMEX2 | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| BERNHARD SCHULTE · 268E · COSU/EMA | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER FOCUS · 026W · EGLV/OAAWE4 | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER MAGNA · 002W · EGLV/OAAUE | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC BREMEN · UA550 · MSCU/MSCESA1 | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 13-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 13 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ZIM SCORPIO · 7W · ZIMU/MEMERALD | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER MAST · 008W · EGLV/OAAUE | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| LONDON EXPRESS · 550E · HLCU/GTEX | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC JULIANA III · PH550 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| POLAR MEXICO · 551S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC ZONDA III · PH550 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 13-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +3.0dCY +4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| NORDAMELIA · RPKPS · CMDU/RTWSB | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 13 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| HYUNDAI EARTH · 053W · ONEY/PEC1 | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| AL MANAMAH · 550E · HLCU/GTA2AL3 | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVRIDIKI G · 551S · MAEU/SAE | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ELA · NH548 · MSCU/ADHOC | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 13-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| RAPHAELA · USB0E · TRKU/TURKON | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SAN FELIX · 551W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
New York · USNYC · 3 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONTI ANNAPURNA · 020 · ONEY/EC1 | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 14-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM SURABAYA · 549E/W · CMDU/CAGML | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 14 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Moderate |
| CAPE HELLAS · 013E/W · ONEY/AMERXL | ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 20-> ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Long Beach · USLGB · 9 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMM RUBY · 0010 · ONEY/010W | ERD Nov 24 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 24 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +8.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| HMM RUBY · 0010W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Nov 24 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 24 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +8.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| OOCL POLAND · 055 · OOLU/PCC1 | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| OOCL BAUHINIA · 008 · OOLU/PVCS | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.4d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| AS PALINA · 551S · MAEU/U8E | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC ARIANE · 550S · MSCU/SENTOSA | ERD Nov 21 | CY Cut Dec 3-> ERD Nov 21 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC FRANCESCA · 549S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE | ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MATE · 549 · MAEU/PANZ | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| XIN YA ZHOU · 173 · COSU/PSX | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Houston · USHOU · 24 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC FAIRFIELD · GN549W · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +8.0dCY +8.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC FAIRFIELD · GN549W · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +8.0dCY +8.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| HANS SCHULTE · 0GBEKS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +7.0dCY +5.8d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| HANS SCHULTE · 0GBEKS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +7.0dCY +5.8d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC EXPRESS III · LE551A · MSCU/GOX | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD -6.0dCY -4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC EXPRESS III · LE551A · MSCU/GOX | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD -6.0dCY -4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC EVEREST VIII · MG550E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +4.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC EVEREST VIII · MG550E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +4.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM MOLIERE · 0VBL8E1MA · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +1.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM MOLIERE · 0VBL8E1MA · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +1.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK OHIO · 551E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK OHIO · 551E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK SANTANA · 550W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK SANTANA · 550W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 8 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK PITTSBURGH · 549E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK PITTSBURGH · 549E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ALESSIA · 0GBEES1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ALESSIA · 0GBEES1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HERMANN SCHULTE · NH549R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HERMANN SCHULTE · NH549R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC SUSANNA · MG551E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC SUSANNA · MG551E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OOCL TOKYO · 140W · OOLU/GME | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OOCL TOKYO · 140W · OOLU/GME | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Norfolk · USORF · 32 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC ESTHI · IU550R · MSCU/INDX | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MSC DAMLA · UA550A · MSCU/MD | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK KANSAS · 548W · MAEU/801 | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 16 |
ERD +6.0dCY +5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ATLANTIC STAR · AST6225 · ACLU/ACL-A | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| HYUNDAI EARTH · 053W · ONEY/EC1 | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD -3.0dCY -4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| APL FLORIDA · 0XR9MW1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM CALLISTO · 1TUGFN1 · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK PITTSBURGH · 549E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ONE IBIS · 035W · ONEY/EC2 | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD -1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Mixed | Elevated |
| POLAR MEXICO · 551S · MAEU/NAE | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| AL MANAMAH · 550E · HLCU/AL3 | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC INGRID · MZ549R · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EVER MASS · 1330W · EGLV/LP2 | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| WAN HAI A08 · W014 · WHLC/AA7 | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| NEVZAT KALKAVAN · 0USB4E1TK · TRKU/TURKON-USA | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| BERNHARD SCHULTE · 268E · COSU/AL8 | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CELTIC · 001E · UNKN/BB | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 25451N · CCBZ/BAL | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CONTI MAKALU · GU549E · MSCU/AMERICA | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| KIEL EXPRESS · 549E · HLCU/AL3 | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC DANIELA · FD545E · MSCU/DRAGON | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC ELENI · NO550E · MSCU/NEUSEC2 | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC MARIAGRAZIA · FD544E · MSCU/DRAGON | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| OSAKA EXPRESS · 550W · HLCU/US2 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ZIM CHINA · 049E · ZIMU/AL7 | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ZIM SAMMY OFER · 012W · ZIMU/ZCP | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| APL FLORIDA · 0XR9MW1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 25451N · COLUMBIA COASTAL/BARGE | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| FOS EXPRESS · 551E · HLCU/TEX | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK SEMBAWANG · 550E · MAEU/AL6 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK TENNESSEE · 550E · MAEU/801 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| TENO · 5245 · HLCU/TPI | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Tacoma · USTIW · 5 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVER SUMMIT · 0138-127W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| VIENNA EXPRESS · 551W · MAEU/WC4 | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.7d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| HYUNDAI SUPREME · 0154 · ONEY/154W | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD -1.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Mixed | Moderate |
| YM TUTORIAL · 0019 · ONEY/019W | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| EVER MODE · 1428-005W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Newark · USEWR · 16 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC VAISHNAVI R. · 547A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| C HAMBURG · 551E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC DAMLA · 550A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC ILLINOIS VII · 550W · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC SHAY · 550E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ATLANTIC STAR · 6225 · ACLU/UNKN | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CCNI ARAUCO · 549W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC CAROLINA · 544A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ELA · 548R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC MEXICO V · 550R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC PARIS · 446A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC PARIS · 550R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SFL HAWAII · 551E · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SHANGHAI EXPRESS · 550W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| UMM SALAL · 551W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| VANCOUVER STAR · 549E · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Nov 28-> ERD Nov 25 | CY Cut Nov 28 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Oakland · USOAK · 10 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVER LEADING · 1195-079W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +4.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| EVER MOST · 1429-006W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +3.0dCY +4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| ONE SINGAPORE · 515W · ONEY/PS7 | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| YM WELLBEING · 034W · YMLU/UNKN | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM ANDROMEDA · 1TUFH · CMDU/CJX | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM GAON · 0021 · ONEY/021W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM OPAL · 0008 · ONEY/008W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| LONG BEACH EXPRESS · 550S · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NYK VESTA · 0092 · ONEY/092W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM WELLBEING · 0034 · ONEY/034W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Los Angeles · USLAX · 8 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVER MOST · 1429-006W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Nov 28 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| EVER LEARNED · 1196W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| FRANKFURT EXPRESS · 548W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| COLOMBO EXPRESS · 547W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GERD MAERSK · 551W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HTW7 · 1430-021W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE HAMBURG · 0FJMCW1MA · CMDU/FUJI | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM MOBILITY · 0087 · ONEY/087W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Seattle · USSEA · 6 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSCO BOSTON · 201S · COSU/UNKN | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ESL SEATTLE · 2547W · ESL/UNKN | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| LAUTOKA CHIEF · 006W · WSL/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OOCL OAKLAND · 137W · OOLU/UNKN | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SM MUMBAI · 2508W · SMC/UNKN | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 10-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SM QINGDAO · 2508W · SMC/UNKN | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
6. Weekly Signal Flags
- CMDU/CBX: 2 of this carrier-service's 4 vessels this week classified High.
7. Ports to Watch
Savannah (USSAV) warrants extra buffer this week. 78.9% of vessels classified High, 81.6% showed late-stage movement across 38 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Long Beach (USLGB) warrants extra buffer this week. 22.2% of vessels classified High, 77.8% showed late-stage movement across 9 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
8. Close
Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly, see the ladder below for how weekly detection feeds monthly diagnosis. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 21 December 2025. For monthly context, see the December 2025 VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.
Appendix A
Stability classification thresholds and late-stage flag definition carry forward each week from the Safe-to-Gate Weekly framework (v1.1). See the framework document for the full methodology reference.
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