Safe-to-Gate Weekly - Week of December 27, 2025
Vessel-level signals from the past seven days: where schedules moved, which ports warrant extra buffer, and what the week ahead likely holds.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly · 21-27 December 2025
Reader's narrative
Savannah ran the week. 36 vessels through the gateway. 50.0% classified High.
The largest single-voyage shift came from MSC IVANA 523S (MSCU) at Long Beach - ERD +14.0d and CY Cut +13.0d from the originally published window.
Savannah, Houston, and Long Beach are on the watch list. If the pattern holds another week, the ports carry into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate. the watch list is not a verdict - it is a flag that the next gate is being watched.
How to read the publication.
Section 3 (Port Summary) gives the network shape. Section 5 (Per-Port Vessel Tables) lists every vessel that departed - 126 rows total - with original-vs-actual CRW, shift magnitude, late-stage flag, and stability classification. The vessel tables are the unit of truth. Everything else is summary.
Sustained Churn - paired ERD and CY Cut activity persisting through the planning horizon - is the cross-month pattern these weeklies feed into. The mechanism is described in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly. The weekly tables show where it surfaced.
A noisy week is workload. A noisy week inside the planning horizon is failure.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly
Sunday 21 December 2025 through Saturday 27 December 2025
Published: Monday 29 December 2025 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2025-12-21/
1. Weekly Note
This week covers vessel-voyages that departed U.S. export gateways between Sunday 21 December 2025 and Saturday 27 December 2025. Savannah showed the highest share of High classification at 50.0%. Long Beach held the largest single-voyage shift with MSC IVANA 523S at ERD +14.0d and CY Cut +13.0d. Full vessel tables below.
2. Signal, Not Verdict
Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.
3. Port Summary
| Port | Vessels this week | % High | % Late-stage | Dominant direction | Port stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USSAV Savannah | 36 | 50.0% | 50.0% | Mixed | High |
| USLAX Los Angeles | 3 | 33.3% | 33.3% | Late-biased | High |
| USHOU Houston | 14 | 28.6% | 57.1% | Late-biased | Elevated |
| USLGB Long Beach | 9 | 22.2% | 44.4% | Late-biased | Elevated |
| USOAK Oakland | 12 | 8.3% | 8.3% | Late-biased | Moderate |
| USORF Norfolk | 28 | 3.6% | 21.4% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USSEA Seattle | 7 | 0.0% | 57.1% | Late-biased | Elevated |
| USTIW Tacoma | 6 | 0.0% | 33.3% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USEWR Newark | 7 | 0.0% | 28.6% | Late-biased | Moderate |
| USNYC New York | 4 | 0.0% | 25.0% | Late-biased | Stable |
Covered ports: 10 U.S. export gateways. Charleston (USCHS) had zero departures in the week window and is omitted per framework Section 6.
4. Quick Scan Layer
- Savannah: 50.0% late-stage movement across 36 vessels.
- Los Angeles: 33.3% of vessels classified High across 3 total.
- Houston: 57.1% late-stage movement across 14 vessels.
- Long Beach: 9 vessels, Elevated at the port level.
- Norfolk: 28 vessels, Elevated at the port level.
5. Per-Port Vessel Tables
Savannah · USSAV · 36 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOL PROFICIENCY · 250E · ONEY/OAONEAT2 | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 20 |
ERD +12.0dCY +11.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| WAN HAI A08 · W014 · WHLC/AA7 | ERD Dec 3 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +11.0dCY +10.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC PASSION III · PH552 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Dec 29-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 20 |
ERD -9.0dCY -9.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC TASMAN VI · NO548 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 | ERD Nov 20 | CY Cut Nov 26-> ERD Nov 26 | CY Cut Dec 2 |
ERD +6.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| OOCL KOREA · 055W · COSU/OALP1 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 13-> ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +6.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC MEXICO V · IU551 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 13-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +4.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| FOS EXPRESS · 551E · HLCU/GTEX | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 20 |
ERD -3.0dCY -4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| APL FLORIDA · INL8E · CMDU/CBX | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 20-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD -3.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| TEXAS TRIUMPH · 036W · EGLV/OAAWE4 | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 20 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| ZIM MOUNT RAINIER · 10W · ZIMU/MZCP | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 20 |
ERD +3.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM CALLISTO · TUGFN · CMDU/OAAWE3 | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 20 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC DAMLA · UA551 · MSCU/MSCESA1 | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 25-> ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD -2.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC PINA · MG548 · MSCU/MMEDGULF | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 20-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +1.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| AL SAFAT · 551E · HLCU/GTA2AL3 | ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER MAX · 013W · EGLV/OAAUE | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC CORUNA · NH549 · MSCU/ADHOC | ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 20 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK KENSINGTON · 551E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ZIM CORAL · 9W · ZIMU/MEMERALD | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM CALLAO · CAJ0S · CMDU/CAGEMA | ERD Dec 6 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| ONE MAXIM · 0076W · ONEY/WIN | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 20 |
ERD +6.0dCY +5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MEDKON PEP · CAJ2S · CMDU/CAGEMA | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| ONE MANEUVER · 079E · ONEY/TA1AL6 | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 20 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MAERSK SEMBAWANG · 550E · MAEU/GTA12AL6 | ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD -4.0dCY -4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK NEWHAVEN · 552S · MAEU/SAE | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 25-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY -2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK SHIVLING · 552W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM NEVA · RPKRS · CMDU/RTWSB | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 20 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Moderate |
| MSC PARIS · MZ551 · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| SHANGHAI EXPRESS · 550W · HLCU/GTP16US4 | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 20-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 20 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| TENO · 5245 · HLCU/INDAMEX | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM BAALBECK · PGMAW · CMDU/ADHOC | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM ORANGE · RPKAN · CMDU/RTWNB | ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 23-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC MAUREEN · IV545 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC NAHARA · UF551 · MSCU/MUSWASA | ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC SARAH V · IU552 · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE MANCHESTER · 044W · ONEY/PEC3 | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR MEXICO · 551S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Los Angeles · USLAX · 3 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVER FORE · 1430-021W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +7.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| ONE OLYMPUS · 0079 · ONEY/079W | ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE OLYMPUS · 0FJMEW1MA · CMDU/FUJI | ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Houston · USHOU · 14 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONE MAESTRO · 083W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 5-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +9.0dCY +10.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE MAESTRO · 083W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +2.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK ATHABASCA · 551W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK ATHABASCA · 551W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC MARIANNA · IV550R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +1.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC MARIANNA · IV550R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +1.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| HUBERT SCHULTE · NH551R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| HUBERT SCHULTE · NH551R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| AMERICA · MG551E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +1.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| AMERICA · MG551E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +1.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| AS CAMELLIA · 552S · MSCU/GOX | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| AS CAMELLIA · 552S · MSCU/GOX | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| XIN MEI ZHOU · 162W · OOLU/GME | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| XIN MEI ZHOU · 162W · OOLU/GME | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Long Beach · USLGB · 9 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC IVANA · 523S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 31 |
ERD +14.0dCY +13.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MSC TRIESTE · 550S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE | ERD Nov 27 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +11.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| OOCL SINGAPORE · 062 · OOLU/PCC1 | ERD Dec 5 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| COSCO SHIPPING CARNATION · 003 · COSU/PVCS | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +1.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CSCL BOHAI SEA · 073W · CHN/UNKN | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| OOCL LONDON · 119 · OOLU/PSX | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| HMM DAON · 0020 · ONEY/020W | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM TURQUOISE · 0007W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| LONG BEACH EXPRESS · 550 · HLCU/PANZ | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Oakland · USOAK · 12 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVER FORE · 1430-021W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +2.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER LEARNED · 1196-072W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +4.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| EVER FORTUNE · 1197-025W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER LUCKY · 1197-080W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM DAON · 0020 · ONEY/020W | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM GAON · 021W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM RUBY · 0010 · ONEY/010W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM RUBY · 010W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HTW7 · 1430-021W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NPDL CALIFORNIA · 2601S · NPD/UNKN | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE OLYMPUS · 0079 · ONEY/079W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM MOBILITY · 0087 · ONEY/087W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Norfolk · USORF · 28 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSCO SHIPPING AZALEA · 033W · COSU/LP1 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +11.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| COSCO HOPE · 072E · OOLU/TA2 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +7.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ONE MANEUVER · 079E · ONEY/AMERIGO | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +2.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC SWEDEN VI · NO551E · MSCU/NEUSEC2 | ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +5.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| SFL HAWAII · 551E · MAEU/TA3 | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +5.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ZIM THAILAND · 014W · ZIMU/ZCP | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +5.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CONTI ANNAPURNA · 020W · ONEY/EC1 | ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY -3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| PORTO GERMENO · 552E · MAEU/TA3 | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY -3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ONE MADRID · 028W · ONEY/EC3 | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ONE MAXIM · 076W · ONEY/WIN | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| C HAMBURG · GU551E · MSCU/AMERICA | ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM PASSION · 0INL8E1 · CMDU/EIS | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK COLUMBUS · 549W · MAEU/801 | ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK OHIO · 551E · MAEU/801 | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MOL ENDOWMENT · 099E · ONEY/AL8 | ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| PRAGUE EXPRESS · 2532W · HLCU/AA7 | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| AL SAFAT · 551E · HLCU/AL3 | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 25452N · CCBZ/BAL | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MAERSK GATESHEAD · 552E · MAEU/TEX | ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC PANTERA · XA549A · MSCU/EXTRA | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM PASSION · 0INL8E1 · CMDU/EIS | ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 13 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 25452N · COLUMBIA COASTAL/BARGE | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| FELIXSTOWE · 526E · ZIMU/AL7 | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK SERANGOON · 551E · MAEU/AL6 | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NAVIOS UNISON · 551W · HLCU/US2 | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OOCL KOREA · 055W · COSU/LP1 | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR BRASIL · 552S · MAEU/NAE | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| UMM SALAL · 551W · HLCU/US4 | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Seattle · USSEA · 7 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC LE HAVRE · 551R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +5.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC RUBY · 550R · MSCU/CHINOOK | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +3.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC CANDICE · 551R · MSCU/CHINOOK | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +3.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC CANDICE · UK551R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM PEGASUS · 0TNH8 · CMDU/CPNW | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OOCL NEW YORK · 115W · OOLU/UNKN | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SM SEOUL · 2508W · SMC/UNKN | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Tacoma · USTIW · 6 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAERSK LEBU · 601W · MAEU/WC4 | ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 25 |
ERD +6.0dCY +6.3d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| HMM VANCOUVER · 0302 · ONEY/302W | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD -3.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Mixed | Elevated |
| VIENNA EXPRESS · 551W · undefined/WC4 | ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 9 | CY Cut Dec 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.7d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| SKAGEN MAERSK · 552W · MAEU/WC4 | ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| EVER MOST · 1429-006W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER SIGMA · 0140-138W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 23-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Newark · USEWR · 7 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC PANTERA · 549A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC LUDOVICA · 551A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EPAMINONDAS · 545A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HENRIKA SCHULTE · 552E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC LORENA · 551A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC NIOVI VIII · 551R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC SWEDEN VI · 551E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 17-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
New York · USNYC · 4 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMA CGM ARISTOTE · 551E/W · CMDU/CAGML | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 21-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM BEIRA · 552E/W · CMDU/AMERXL | ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CONTI ANNAPURNA · 020 · ONEY/EC1 | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 15-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| Mol Endowment · 099E · ONEY/EMA | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
6. Weekly Signal Flags
No cross-port or cross-carrier-service patterns this week beyond what is visible in the Port Summary.
7. Ports to Watch
Savannah (USSAV) warrants extra buffer this week. 50.0% of vessels classified High, 50.0% showed late-stage movement across 36 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Houston (USHOU) warrants extra buffer this week. 28.6% of vessels classified High, 57.1% showed late-stage movement across 14 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Long Beach (USLGB) warrants extra buffer this week. 22.2% of vessels classified High, 44.4% showed late-stage movement across 9 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
8. Close
Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly, see the ladder below for how weekly detection feeds monthly diagnosis. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 28 December 2025. For monthly context, see the December 2025 VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.
Appendix A
Stability classification thresholds and late-stage flag definition carry forward each week from the Safe-to-Gate Weekly framework (v1.1). See the framework document for the full methodology reference.
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