Safe-to-Gate Weekly - Week of January 3, 2026
Vessel-level signals from the past seven days: where schedules moved, which ports warrant extra buffer, and what the week ahead likely holds.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly · 28 December - 3 January 2026
Reader's narrative
Savannah ran the week. 34 vessels through the gateway. 58.8% classified High.
The largest single-voyage shift came from YM TRILLION 017W (YMLU) at Savannah - ERD +20.0d and CY Cut +20.0d from the originally published window.
The cross-port pattern shows up in carrier-service clusters: MSCU/EMUSA recorded 2 of its 4 vessels High this week. MSCU/INDUSA recorded 2 of 4. The instability is service-shaped, not just port-shaped.
Savannah and Tacoma are on the watch list. If the pattern holds another week, the ports carry into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate. the watch list is not a verdict - it is a flag that the next gate is being watched.
How to read the publication.
Section 3 (Port Summary) gives the network shape. Section 5 (Per-Port Vessel Tables) lists every vessel that departed - 127 rows total - with original-vs-actual CRW, shift magnitude, late-stage flag, and stability classification. The vessel tables are the unit of truth. Everything else is summary.
Sustained Churn - paired ERD and CY Cut activity persisting through the planning horizon - is the cross-month pattern these weeklies feed into. The mechanism is described in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly. The weekly tables show where it surfaced.
A noisy week is workload. A noisy week inside the planning horizon is failure.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly
Sunday 28 December 2025 through Saturday 3 January 2026
Published: Monday 5 January 2026 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2025-12-28/
1. Weekly Note
This week covers vessel-voyages that departed U.S. export gateways between Sunday 28 December 2025 and Saturday 3 January 2026. Savannah showed the highest share of High classification at 58.8%. Savannah held the largest single-voyage shift with YM TRILLION 017W at ERD +20.0d and CY Cut +20.0d. Full vessel tables below.
2. Signal, Not Verdict
Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.
3. Port Summary
| Port | Vessels this week | % High | % Late-stage | Dominant direction | Port stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USSAV Savannah | 34 | 58.8% | 73.5% | Mixed | High |
| USTIW Tacoma | 4 | 50.0% | 50.0% | Mixed | High |
| USHOU Houston | 28 | 35.7% | 28.6% | Mixed | High |
| USNYC New York | 4 | 25.0% | 25.0% | Early-biased | Elevated |
| USLAX Los Angeles | 5 | 20.0% | 40.0% | Late-biased | Elevated |
| USEWR Newark | 9 | 11.1% | 44.4% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USORF Norfolk | 27 | 3.7% | 7.4% | Mixed | Moderate |
| USLGB Long Beach | 6 | 0.0% | 50.0% | Late-biased | Elevated |
| USOAK Oakland | 5 | 0.0% | 20.0% | Late-biased | Stable |
| USSEA Seattle | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Stable | Stable |
Covered ports: 10 U.S. export gateways. Charleston (USCHS) had zero departures in the week window and is omitted per framework Section 6.
4. Quick Scan Layer
- Savannah: 73.5% late-stage movement across 34 vessels.
- Tacoma: 50.0% late-stage movement across 4 vessels.
- Houston: 35.7% of vessels classified High across 28 total.
- New York: 25.0% of vessels classified High across 4 total.
- Los Angeles: 5 vessels, Elevated at the port level.
5. Per-Port Vessel Tables
Savannah · USSAV · 34 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YM TRILLION · 017W · YMLU/PEC2 | ERD Nov 30 | CY Cut Dec 6-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +20.0dCY +20.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC LORENA · UF550 · MSCU/MUSWASA | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 13-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +13.0dCY +13.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| FELIXSTOWE · 526E · ZIMU/ZCA | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 27 |
ERD +11.0dCY +11.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC PANTERA · XA549 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 27 |
ERD +10.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| BRIGHTON · 022E · ONEY/OAONEAT2 | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 20-> ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Dec 29 |
ERD +8.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC BARCELONA · IU601 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Jan 1-> ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD -9.0dCY -9.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ARTEMIS · PH601 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Dec 28 | CY Cut Jan 3-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD -8.0dCY -8.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ZIM VIRGINIA · 154E · ZIMU/ZCA | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut Dec 31 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MAERSK GATESHEAD · 552E · MAEU/GTEX | ERD Dec 27 | CY Cut Jan 2-> ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Dec 29 |
ERD -4.0dCY -4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK SERANGOON · 551E · MAEU/GTA12AL6 | ERD Dec 27 | CY Cut Jan 2-> ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Dec 29 |
ERD -4.0dCY -4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC NIOVI VIII · MZ552 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 27 |
ERD +4.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC SWEDEN VI · NO551 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 27-> ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut Dec 31 |
ERD +3.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM PASSION · XR9MW · CMDU/INDAMEX2 | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 20 |
ERD +3.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| COLUMBINE MAERSK · 604W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Jan 1-> ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Dec 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| MOL ENDOWMENT · 099W · ONEY/EMA | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| YANTIAN EXPRESS · 552E · HLCU/GTA2AL3 | ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| CMA CGM NEVA · RPKRS · CMDU/RTWSB | ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 27 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CONTI ANNAPURNA · 020W · ONEY/PEC1 | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 25-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| PRAGUE EXPRESS · 2532W · HLCU/AA7 | ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ZIM PEARL · 8W · ZIMU/MEMERALD | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 27-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| TIRUA · 5246 · HLCU/INDAMEX | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 27 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CMA CGM PREGOLIA · RPKTS · CMDU/RTWSB | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 27 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC ODESSA V · UF602 · MSCU/MUSWASA | ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Dec 29-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 27 |
ERD -2.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| POLAR BRASIL · 552S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 25-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| POLAR COSTA RICA · 601S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut Jan 1-> ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut Dec 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| SEASPAN LIMA · 601S · MAEU/SAE | ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut Jan 1-> ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut Dec 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ZIM BANGKOK · 13W · ZIMU/MZCP | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 25-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 27 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM LOUGA · RPKCN · CMDU/RTWNB | ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Dec 30-> ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Jan 2 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Moderate |
| MSC MOMBASA · MZ551 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC ORNELLA · NO601 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 | ERD Dec 27 | CY Cut Jan 2-> ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Jan 1 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM HOMERE · UALWN · CMDU/ADHOC | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 25-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 25 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK SENTOSA · 552E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE MANHATTAN · 043W · ONEY/PEC3 | ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| UMM SALAL · 551W · HLCU/GTP16US4 | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 27-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Tacoma · USTIW · 4 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YM TOPMOST · 0023 · ONEY/023W | ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD -10.3dCY -7.7d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| HMM VANCOUVER · 0302 · ONEY/302W | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 28 |
ERD -3.0dCY +8.8d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Mixed | High |
| CORNEILLE · 0010 · ONEY/010W | ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 29 |
ERD -4.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Mixed | Elevated |
| MAERSK LEBU · 601W · MAEU/WC4 | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 25 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Houston · USHOU · 28 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC VANESSA · IV548R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24 |
ERD +16.0dCY +15.9d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC VANESSA · IV548R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Dec 2 | CY Cut Dec 8-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24 |
ERD +16.0dCY +15.9d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| CONTI CHIVALRY · GN551W · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +13.0dCY +14.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| CONTI CHIVALRY · GN551W · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Dec 8 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +13.0dCY +14.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE MODERN · 078W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +8.0dCY +10.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE MODERN · 078W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +8.0dCY +10.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| APL CALIFORNIA · 0VBLAE1MA · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +8.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| APL CALIFORNIA · 0VBLAE1MA · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 12-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +8.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| VALIANT · GN550W · HLCU/LONESTAR | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +7.0dCY +8.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| VALIANT · GN550W · HLCU/LONESTAR | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 19 |
ERD +7.0dCY +8.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM BAALBECK · 0PGMAW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CMA CGM BAALBECK · 0PGMAW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Dec 7 | CY Cut Dec 11-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC CAROLINA · IV551R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC CAROLINA · IV551R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| ENSENADA · 0GBEMSMA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +4.0dCY +5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| ENSENADA · 0GBEMSMA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +4.0dCY +5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CLEMENTINE MAERSK · 550E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +4.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CLEMENTINE MAERSK · 550E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +4.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK KENSINGTON · 551E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +4.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK KENSINGTON · 551E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +4.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK KANSAS · 552E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK KANSAS · 552E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK COLUMBUS · 549W · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.2d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK COLUMBUS · 549W · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.2d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GARDINER · 601S · MSCU/GOX | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GARDINER · 601S · MSCU/GOX | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC BHAVYA V · NH552R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC BHAVYA V · NH552R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
New York · USNYC · 4 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMA CGM PREGOLIA · 551E/W · CMDU/RTWPAN | ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM LEO · 522 · CMDU/COLUMBUS | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 28-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY -2.3d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| SC MONTREAL · 552E/W · CMDU/AMERXL | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 31-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM LAPIS · 552E/W · CMDU/TUX | ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 25-> ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 25 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Los Angeles · USLAX · 5 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISSOURI EXPRESS · 609W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER MAGIC · 1431-005W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| ONE HANGZHOU BAY · 0060 · ONEY/060W | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| DELAWARE EXPRESS · 614W · MAEU/707 | ERD Mar 20 | CY Cut Mar 30-> ERD Mar 20 | CY Cut Mar 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GJERTRUD MAERSK · 610W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Newark · USEWR · 9 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC BRIDGEPORT · 552E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD -3.0dCY -3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC STACEY · 546E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 16-> ERD Dec 11 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ATLANTIC SEA · 6126 · ACLU/UNKN | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC ORNELLA · 601A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Dec 29-> ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Dec 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ATLANTIC SKY · 6225 · ACLU/UNKN | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CAUTIN · 2516W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK TAIKUNG · 608W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ORNELLA · 601E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Dec 30-> ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Dec 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC QINGDAO · 551R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 23-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Norfolk · USORF · 27 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC PARIS · IU551R · MSCU/INDX | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 23-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| EVER MAST · 1331W · EGLV/LP2 | ERD Dec 12 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +6.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK KANSAS · 552E · MAEU/801 | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 25-> ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut Dec 31 |
ERD +4.0dCY +6.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| HENRIKA SCHULTE · NO552E · MSCU/NEUSEC2 | ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +5.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ZIM MOUNT RAINIER · 010W · ZIMU/ZCP | ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ZIM VIRGINIA · 154E · ZIMU/AL7 | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC MEXICO V · MZ550R · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Dec 16 | CY Cut Dec 23-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ONE COMMITMENT · 071W · ONEY/EC1 | ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY -3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK GARONNE · 550W · MAEU/801 | ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM MEDEA · 0XR9OW1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Jan 1-> ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Jan 1 |
ERD -3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| EVER MAGNA · 1332W · EGLV/LP2 | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC LUDOVICA · UA551A · MSCU/MD | ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| COSCO SHANGHAI · 014E · COSU/AMERIGO | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| LEVERKUSEN EXPRESS · 552W · HLCU/US4 | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MAERSK MEMPHIS · 552E · MAEU/AL6 | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 25-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MELCHIOR SCHULTE · 0USB8E1TK · TRKU/TURKON-USA | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 20 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| YANTIAN EXPRESS · 552E · HLCU/AL3 | ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| APL LE HAVRE · 0INLAE1 · CMDU/EIS | ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Jan 1-> ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Jan 1 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM LAPIS · 0UB86E1 · CMDU/AL8 | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 29-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26401N · COLUMBIA COASTAL/BARGE | ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COYHAIQUE · 552W · HLCU/US2 | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC SHAY · GU550E · MSCU/AMERICA | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 23-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MUNDRA EXPRESS · 5247 · HLCU/TPI | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE MANCHESTER · 044W · ONEY/EC3 | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR COSTA RICA · 601S · MAEU/NAE | ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Dec 29-> ERD Dec 23 | CY Cut Dec 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| RICHMOND EXPRESS II · 892W · JRBU/64EX | ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| TIRUA · 5246 · HLCU/TPI | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Long Beach · USLGB · 6 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSCO BELGIUM · 082 · OOLU/PCC1 | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 19-> ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 24 |
ERD +2.0dCY +4.9d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| OOCL VIOLET · 006 · OOLU/PVCS | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 23-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK GLACIER · 552S · MAEU/U8E | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.1d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ANL WARRNAMBOOL · 551 · ANL/PANZ | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 25-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CSCL SOUTH CHINA SEA · 079W · CHN/UNKN | ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 23-> ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CSCL SUMMER · 071W · CHN/UNKN | ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Oakland · USOAK · 5 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVER LEGACY · 1197-073W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 18 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| HMM DAON · 0020 · ONEY/020W | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC TRIESTE · 550S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE | ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 10 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| PRESIDENT BUSH · 0DBN4 · CMDU/EX1APL | ERD Nov 4 | CY Cut Dec 29-> ERD Nov 4 | CY Cut Dec 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM MATURITY · 0104 · ONEY/104W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Seattle · USSEA · 5 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMA CGM DUTCH HARBOR · 0Y1KT · ANL/UNKN | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 29-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COSCO VENICE · 076S · COSU/UNKN | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC SARA ELENA · 601R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 25-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 25 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SAMOA CHIEF · 009W · CHV/UNKN | ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22-> ERD Dec 17 | CY Cut Dec 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SM QINGDAO · 2508W · SMC/UNKN | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 23-> ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
6. Weekly Signal Flags
- MSCU/EMUSA: 2 of this carrier-service's 4 vessels this week classified High.
- MSCU/INDUSA: 2 of this carrier-service's 4 vessels this week classified High.
- MSCU/MNEUSEC2: 2 of this carrier-service's 3 vessels this week classified High.
7. Ports to Watch
Savannah (USSAV) warrants extra buffer this week. 58.8% of vessels classified High, 73.5% showed late-stage movement across 34 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Tacoma (USTIW) warrants extra buffer this week. 50.0% of vessels classified High, 50.0% showed late-stage movement across 4 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
8. Close
Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly, see the ladder below for how weekly detection feeds monthly diagnosis. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 4 January 2026. For monthly context, see the December 2025 VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.
Appendix A
Stability classification thresholds and late-stage flag definition carry forward each week from the Safe-to-Gate Weekly framework (v1.1). See the framework document for the full methodology reference.
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