THE LOADED BOX · SAFE-TO-GATE WEEKLY EDITION
Safe-to-Gate Weekly - Week of January 17, 2026
Vessel-level signals from the past seven days: where schedules moved, which ports warrant extra buffer, and what the week ahead likely holds.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly · 11-17 January 2026
Reader's narrative
Savannah ran the week. 42 vessels through the gateway. 64.3% classified High.
The largest single-voyage shift came from HMM PERIDOT 0008 (ONEY) at Long Beach - ERD +17.3d and CY Cut +13.0d from the originally published window.
The cross-port pattern shows up in carrier-service clusters: MAEU/MECL recorded 2 of its 3 vessels High this week. MSCU/INDUSA recorded 2 of 4. The instability is service-shaped, not just port-shaped.
On the other end of the spectrum, New York and Seattle held with zero late-stage movement. The contrast matters: instability is concentrated, not network-wide.
Savannah and Long Beach are on the watch list. If the pattern holds another week, the ports carry into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate. the watch list is not a verdict - it is a flag that the next gate is being watched.
How to read the publication.
Section 3 (Port Summary) gives the network shape. Section 5 (Per-Port Vessel Tables) lists every vessel that departed - 163 rows total - with original-vs-actual CRW, shift magnitude, late-stage flag, and stability classification. The vessel tables are the unit of truth. Everything else is summary.
Sustained Churn - paired ERD and CY Cut activity persisting through the planning horizon - is the cross-month pattern these weeklies feed into. The mechanism is described in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly. The weekly tables show where it surfaced.
A noisy week is workload. A noisy week inside the planning horizon is failure.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly
Sunday 11 January 2026 through Saturday 17 January 2026
Published: Monday 19 January 2026 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2026-01-11/
1. Weekly Note
This week covers vessel-voyages that departed U.S. export gateways between Sunday 11 January 2026 and Saturday 17 January 2026. Savannah showed the highest share of High classification at 64.3%. Long Beach held the largest single-voyage shift with HMM PERIDOT 0008 at ERD +17.3d and CY Cut +13.0d. New York and Seattle remained the stable baselines with zero late-stage movement. Full vessel tables below.
2. Signal, Not Verdict
Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.
3. Port Summary
| Port | Vessels this week | % High | % Late-stage | Dominant direction | Port stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USSAV Savannah | 42 | 64.3% | 66.7% | Mixed | High |
| USLGB Long Beach | 11 | 36.4% | 36.4% | Late-biased | High |
| USHOU Houston | 38 | 26.3% | 26.3% | Mixed | High |
| USTIW Tacoma | 8 | 25.0% | 37.5% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USORF Norfolk | 33 | 15.2% | 33.3% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USLAX Los Angeles | 8 | 12.5% | 12.5% | Late-biased | Moderate |
| USEWR Newark | 7 | 0.0% | 14.3% | Early-biased | Stable |
| USOAK Oakland | 9 | 0.0% | 11.1% | Late-biased | Moderate |
| USNYC New York | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Late-biased | Stable |
| USSEA Seattle | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Late-biased | High |
Covered ports: 10 U.S. export gateways. Charleston (USCHS) had zero departures in the week window and is omitted per framework Section 6.
4. Quick Scan Layer
- Savannah: 66.7% late-stage movement across 42 vessels.
- Long Beach: 36.4% of vessels classified High across 11 total.
- Houston: 26.3% of vessels classified High across 38 total.
- Tacoma: 25.0% of vessels classified High across 8 total.
- Norfolk: 33 vessels, Elevated at the port level.
5. Per-Port Vessel Tables
Savannah · USSAV · 42 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC CARMEN · UF552 · MSCU/MUSWASA | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 27-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +16.0dCY +16.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC WEST V · UF601 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 27-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +11.0dCY +11.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE MILLAU · 045W · ONEY/PEC3 | ERD Dec 27 | CY Cut Jan 2-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +10.0dCY +10.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| TAMPA TRIUMPH · 041W · EGLV/OAAWE4 | ERD Dec 21 | CY Cut Dec 27-> ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut Jan 6 |
ERD +10.0dCY +10.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC PASSION III · PH603 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 17-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 10 |
ERD -8.0dCY -7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| WAN HAI A03 · W013 · WHLC/AA7 | ERD Dec 28 | CY Cut Jan 3-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 10 |
ERD +8.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| APL LE HAVRE · INLAE · CMDU/INDAMEX2 | ERD Dec 29 | CY Cut Jan 3-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 10 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE AQUILA · 030W · ONEY/PEC2 | ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Jan 1-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| COSCO DEVELOPMENT · 079W · COSU/OALP2 | ERD Dec 28 | CY Cut Jan 3-> ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +6.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC SHANGHAI V · NO602 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| SINE A · USB6E · ARKU/TURKON | ERD Dec 28 | CY Cut Jan 3-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM LEO · TUGNN · CMDU/OAAWE3 | ERD Dec 28 | CY Cut Jan 3-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| HYUNDAI SINGAPORE · IU602 · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 13-> ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD -4.0dCY -4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ZIM EMERALD · 10W · ZIMU/MEMERALD | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| COSCO HARMONY · 083W · COSU/OALP1 | ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 5-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| EMMA A · USSME · ARKU/TURKON | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 10-> ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 13 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| KARLSKRONA · IV548 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 13-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 10 |
ERD -2.0dCY -3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC CADIZ · MG551 · MSCU/MMEDGULF | ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 13-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 10 |
ERD -2.0dCY -3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC PRELUDE V · IV547 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Jan 10 | CY Cut Jan 16-> ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 13 |
ERD -3.0dCY -3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM MAUPASSANT · INLCE · CMDU/INDAMEX2 | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 10 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK IDAHO · 602E · MAEU/GTEX | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 14-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD -2.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ONE CONTRIBUTION · 063W · ONEY/PEC1 | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 14-> ERD Jan 10 | CY Cut Jan 15 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| OOCL DAFFODIL · 003W · OOLU/OALP2 | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 10-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| GSL ALEXANDRA · 602W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut Jan 6-> ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 5 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| GSL NICOLETTA · 601E · MAEU/GTA12AL6 | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 14-> ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 13 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC ARICA · MG550 · MSCU/MMEDGULF | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| TORRENTE · 5248 · HLCU/INDAMEX | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ONE TRITON · 119E · ONEY/OAONEAT2 | ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 5-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 10 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CMA CGM ENDURANCE · MRTUE · CMDU/TA1AL6 | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 10 |
ERD +3.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| HENRIKA SCHULTE · NO552 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 | ERD Dec 28 | CY Cut Jan 3-> ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut Jan 6 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Moderate |
| MSC NAMIBIA · IV547 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut Jan 6-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| TALOS · 040W · EGLV/OAAUE | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CAP ANDREAS · 023W · ONEY/WIN | ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut Jan 6-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM CASSIOPEIA · XR9QW · CMDU/CBX | ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 13-> ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK DETROIT · 602E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MARGARETE SCHULTE · 603S · MAEU/SAE | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 15-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MARIUS · 5547 · MARFRET USA INC/RTWNB | ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC FLORIANA VI · IU603 · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR BRASIL · 603S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 15-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR MEXICO · 602S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SUAPE EXPRESS · 602E · HLCU/GTA2AL3 | ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ULSAN EXPRESS · 601W · HLCU/GTP16US4 | ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 10-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Long Beach · USLGB · 11 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMM PERIDOT · 0008 · ONEY/008W | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +17.3dCY +13.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| COSCO PORTUGAL · 079 · OOLU/PCC1 | ERD Dec 19 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +11.0dCY +13.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| OOCL ROTTERDAM · 160 · OOLU/PSX | ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 5-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 13 |
ERD +7.0dCY +8.4d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| COSCO SPAIN · 076 · COSU/PVCS | ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 5-> ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM DUTCH HARBOR · 552 · ANL/PANZ | ERD Dec 29 | CY Cut Jan 2-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +7.0dCY +6.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| XIN MEI ZHOU · 163 · OOLU/PSX | ERD Dec 29 | CY Cut Jan 6-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +4.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| COSCO AFRICA · 098W · COSU/UNKN | ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC IVANA · 552S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 31-> ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Jan 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| HMM GARNET · 0008 · ONEY/008W | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC KATIE · 603S · MSCU/SENTOSA | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC MUNDRA VIII · 601S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Dec 14 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Houston · USHOU · 38 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPAMINONDAS · IV552R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +13.0dCY +13.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| EPAMINONDAS · IV552R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +13.0dCY +13.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC TIANSHAN · GN601W · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +13.0dCY +13.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC TIANSHAN · GN601W · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Dec 26-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +13.0dCY +13.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC PINA · MG601E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut Dec 31-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +10.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| MSC PINA · MG601E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Dec 25 | CY Cut Dec 31-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +10.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| MOL COURAGE · 065W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Dec 28 | CY Cut Jan 2-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +9.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MOL COURAGE · 065W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Dec 28 | CY Cut Jan 2-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +9.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| OOCL BREMERHAVEN · 013E · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 6-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| OOCL BREMERHAVEN · 013E · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 6-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MAERSK SANA · 602W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 5-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +6.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK SANA · 602W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 5-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +6.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC PILAR VI · NH601R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Dec 28 | CY Cut Dec 31-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 6 |
ERD +4.0dCY +6.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC PILAR VI · NH601R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Dec 28 | CY Cut Dec 31-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 6 |
ERD +4.0dCY +6.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CARDIFF · 0GBEOS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Dec 28 | CY Cut Jan 2-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +4.0dCY +5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CARDIFF · 0GBEOS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Dec 28 | CY Cut Jan 2-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +4.0dCY +5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CMA CGM ORFEO · 0PGMGW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 5-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +5.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM ORFEO · 0PGMGW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 5-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +5.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM TAORMINA · 0PGMIW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM TAORMINA · 0PGMIW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC SYDNEY VI · NH602R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD -2.0dCY -4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC SYDNEY VI · NH602R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD -2.0dCY -4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| COLOMBIA EXPRESS · 601E · HLCU/MGX | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| COLOMBIA EXPRESS · 601E · HLCU/MGX | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK MONTANA · 603E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY -3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK MONTANA · 603E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY -3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC EXPRESS III · LE603A · MSCU/GOX | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD -3.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC EXPRESS III · LE603A · MSCU/GOX | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD -3.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| AS CAMELLIA · 604S · MSCU/GOX | ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 16-> ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 15 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| AS CAMELLIA · 604S · MSCU/GOX | ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 16-> ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 15 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| SWANSEA · 0GBEQS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| SWANSEA · 0GBEQS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC EXPRESS III · LE602A · MSCU/GOX | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC EXPRESS III · LE602A · MSCU/GOX | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC NAMIBIA · IV602R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC NAMIBIA · IV602R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OOCL WASHINGTON · 094E · OOLU/GME | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OOCL WASHINGTON · 094E · OOLU/GME | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Tacoma · USTIW · 8 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YM TROPHY · 0021 · ONEY/021W | ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Jan 5-> ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 11 |
ERD +12.7dCY +6.3d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| EVER SHINE · 0142-155W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 29 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 13 |
ERD +8.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| YM WEALTH · 0188 · ONEY/188W | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut Jan 14 |
ERD +3.0dCY +5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| BUDAPEST EXPRESS · 603W · MAEU/WC4 | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.7d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ONE PREMIUM · 088 · ONEY/PN1 | ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD -2.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Mixed | Moderate |
| YM MUTUALITY · 0110 · ONEY/110W | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| EVER MAGUS · 1432-004W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE PREMIUM · 0088 · ONEY/088W | ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Norfolk · USORF · 33 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMA CGM LYRA · 1TUGVN1 · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MAERSK GARONNE · 602E · MAEU/801 | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK SENTOSA · 552E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CATHERINE C · UA602A · MSCU/MD | ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| W KITHIRA · 601E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 14-> ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 13 |
ERD +1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| GSL NINGBO · GU601E · MSCU/AMERICA | ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +6.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC BERANGERE · FD548E · MSCU/DRAGON | ERD Dec 29 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +6.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EVER META · 1334W · EGLV/LP2 | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| GSL ELENI · 602E · MAEU/AL6 | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC TASMAN VI · NO602E · MSCU/NEUSEC2 | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| OOCL CHONGQING · 064E · OOLU/TA2 | ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC QINGDAO · IU601R · MSCU/INDX | ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ATLANTIC SUN · ASU6626 · ACLU/ACL-A | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| TEMPANOS · 2520W · HLCU/AA7 | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ALTAMIRA EXPRESS · 603E · HLCU/TEX | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM SAMSON · 1XRSSW1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 14-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 14 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| JAMAICA · 123E · ZIMU/AL7 | ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC ROSE · GA602S · MSCU/EXTRA | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC SHANGHAI V · NO601E · MSCU/NEUSEC2 | ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| AIN SNAN EXPRESS · 602W · HLCU/US4 | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ONE APUS · 021W · ONEY/EC2 | ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| KUALA LUMPUR EXPRESS · 602W · HLCU/US2 | ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ONE MAJESTY · 023W · ONEY/WIN | ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 13-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 13 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| OOCL GUANGZHOU · 173E · OOLU/AL8 | ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 4 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26402N · COLUMBIA COASTAL/BARGE | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26403N · CCBZ/BAL | ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26403N · COLUMBIA COASTAL/BARGE | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COSCO FAITH · 074W · COSU/LP1 | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GSL C ELISABETH · 602E · MAEU/TA3 | ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| KAAN KALKAVAN · 0USBCE1TK · TRKU/TURKON-USA | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE CONTRIBUTION · 063W · ONEY/EC1 | ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR BRASIL · 603S · MAEU/NAE | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SUAPE EXPRESS · 602E · HLCU/AL3 | ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Los Angeles · USLAX · 8 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONE HUMEN · 0FJMKW1MA · CMDU/FUJI | ERD Dec 22 | CY Cut Jan 1-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +14.5dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| EVER MEMO · 1433-009W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Jan 2-> ERD Dec 31 | CY Cut Jan 6 |
ERD +5.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| EVER LASTING · 1200W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 7-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GRETE MAERSK · 603W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GUSTAV MAERSK · 603W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 5-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NAVIOS UNISON · 551W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE HUMEN · 0098 · ONEY/098W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| PELICAN I · 009W · ZIMU/UNKN | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 13-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Newark · USEWR · 7 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC MAPUTO · 602W · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ATLANTIC SAIL · 5726 · ACLU/UNKN | ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 12-> ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC NERISSA V · 603E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut Jan 14-> ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut Jan 14 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC NURIA · 603A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut Jan 14-> ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut Jan 14 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC PRELUDE V · 603R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ROSE · 602S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC TASMAN VI · 602E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Oakland · USOAK · 9 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVER LEADER · 1199-076W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 6-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +6.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| EVER MEMO · 1433-009W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 12 |
ERD +2.0dCY +4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| PRESIDENT CARTER · 0DBN8 · CMDU/EX1APL | ERD Nov 18 | CY Cut Nov 21-> ERD Nov 18 | CY Cut Nov 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EVER LASTING · 1200-090W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 13-> ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut Jan 14 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| GEORGE III · 090W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM PERIDOT · 0008 · ONEY/008W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MOL Creation · 099W · ONEY/UNKN | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 13-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE Humen · 098W · ONEY/UNKN | ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut Jan 14-> ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut Jan 14 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE HUMEN · 0098 · ONEY/098W | ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6-> ERD Nov 3 | CY Cut Nov 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
New York · USNYC · 4 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONE MANHATTAN · 043-2 · ONEY/EC3L | ERD Dec 30 | CY Cut Jan 5-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 6 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM ALIAGA · 603E/W · CMDU/AMERXL | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 14-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 14 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM HOMERE · 603E/W · CMDU/CAGML | ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 8-> ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM PHOENIX · 602E/W · CMDU/LIBERTY | ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 13-> ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut Jan 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Seattle · USSEA · 3 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC JASMINE X · 601R · MSCU/CHINOOK | ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Dec 31-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC JASMINE X · UK601R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Dec 26 | CY Cut Dec 31-> ERD Jan 2 | CY Cut Jan 7 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MAERSK MAMMOTH · 603W · MAEU/067 | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 13-> ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
6. Weekly Signal Flags
- MAEU/MECL: 2 of this carrier-service's 3 vessels this week classified High.
- MSCU/INDUSA: 2 of this carrier-service's 4 vessels this week classified High.
7. Ports to Watch
Savannah (USSAV) warrants extra buffer this week. 64.3% of vessels classified High, 66.7% showed late-stage movement across 42 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Long Beach (USLGB) warrants extra buffer this week. 36.4% of vessels classified High, 36.4% showed late-stage movement across 11 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
8. Close
Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly, see the ladder below for how weekly detection feeds monthly diagnosis. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 18 January 2026. For monthly context, see the January 2026 VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.
Appendix A
Stability classification thresholds and late-stage flag definition carry forward each week from the Safe-to-Gate Weekly framework (v1.1). See the framework document for the full methodology reference.
Explore Related Intelligence
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Bill Hewitt,
Frey Commodities
Frey Commodities
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