Safe-to-Gate Weekly - Week of January 31, 2026
Vessel-level signals from the past seven days: where schedules moved, which ports warrant extra buffer, and what the week ahead likely holds.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly · 25-31 January 2026
Reader's narrative
Savannah ran the week. 30 vessels through the gateway. 50.0% classified High.
The largest single-voyage shift came from OOCL POLAND 056 (OOLU) at Long Beach - ERD +17.9d and CY Cut +21.0d from the originally published window.
The cross-port pattern shows up in carrier-service clusters: MSCU/PHILLYEXP recorded 2 of its 3 vessels High this week. The instability is service-shaped, not just port-shaped.
Savannah, Newark, and Long Beach are on the watch list. If the pattern holds another week, the ports carry into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate. the watch list is not a verdict - it is a flag that the next gate is being watched.
How to read the publication.
Section 3 (Port Summary) gives the network shape. Section 5 (Per-Port Vessel Tables) lists every vessel that departed - 146 rows total - with original-vs-actual CRW, shift magnitude, late-stage flag, and stability classification. The vessel tables are the unit of truth. Everything else is summary.
Sustained Churn - paired ERD and CY Cut activity persisting through the planning horizon - is the cross-month pattern these weeklies feed into. The mechanism is described in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly. The weekly tables show where it surfaced.
A noisy week is workload. A noisy week inside the planning horizon is failure.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly
Sunday 25 January 2026 through Saturday 31 January 2026
Published: Monday 2 February 2026 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2026-01-25/
1. Weekly Note
This week covers vessel-voyages that departed U.S. export gateways between Sunday 25 January 2026 and Saturday 31 January 2026. Savannah showed the highest share of High classification at 50.0%. Long Beach held the largest single-voyage shift with OOCL POLAND 056 at ERD +17.9d and CY Cut +21.0d. Full vessel tables below.
2. Signal, Not Verdict
Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.
3. Port Summary
| Port | Vessels this week | % High | % Late-stage | Dominant direction | Port stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USSAV Savannah | 30 | 50.0% | 40.0% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USEWR Newark | 5 | 40.0% | 80.0% | Mixed | High |
| USLGB Long Beach | 8 | 37.5% | 62.5% | Late-biased | High |
| USOAK Oakland | 27 | 25.9% | 29.6% | Mixed | High |
| USTIW Tacoma | 4 | 25.0% | 25.0% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USLAX Los Angeles | 12 | 25.0% | 16.7% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USHOU Houston | 22 | 18.2% | 45.5% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USNYC New York | 6 | 16.7% | 33.3% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USORF Norfolk | 24 | 12.5% | 25.0% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USSEA Seattle | 8 | 12.5% | 12.5% | Late-biased | Moderate |
Covered ports: 10 U.S. export gateways. Charleston (USCHS) had zero departures in the week window and is omitted per framework Section 6.
4. Quick Scan Layer
- Savannah: 50.0% of vessels classified High across 30 total.
- Newark: 80.0% late-stage movement across 5 vessels.
- Long Beach: 62.5% late-stage movement across 8 vessels.
- Oakland: 25.9% of vessels classified High across 27 total.
- Tacoma: 25.0% of vessels classified High across 4 total.
5. Per-Port Vessel Tables
Savannah · USSAV · 30 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEABOARD GARDENIA · 00040 · SMLU/SMJS | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +14.0dCY +15.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC DARIEN · MZ602 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +14.0dCY +14.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC JULIANA III · PH602 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 12-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +14.0dCY +14.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| EVER EXCEL · 189E · EGLV/OAONEAT2 | ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 10-> ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +12.0dCY +13.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MARIANNA I · IV547 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Jan 3 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 21 |
ERD +12.0dCY +12.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC JULIANA III · PH605 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24 |
ERD -9.0dCY -9.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| YM TRUST · 103W · YMLU/PEC2 | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 14-> ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +8.0dCY +8.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| ZIM MOUNT DENALI · 11W · ZIMU/MZCP | ERD Jan 10 | CY Cut Jan 16-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24 |
ERD +8.0dCY +8.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM ORANGE · RPL1S · CMDU/RTWSB | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| TOKYO TRIUMPH · 039W · EGLV/OAAWE4 | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| JADE I · 6W · ZIMU/MEMERALD | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| TUCAPEL · 5249 · HLCU/INDAMEX | ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 21 |
ERD -2.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK ATLANTA · 604E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM RIMBAUD · XR9UW · CMDU/INDAMEX2 | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| WAN HAI A15 · W007 · WHLC/AA7 | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| OOCL BERLIN · 056W · OOLU/OALP2 | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 17-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CMA CGM AMBITION · MRK8E · CMDU/TA1AL6 | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 31-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD -5.0dCY -5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MADRID EXPRESS · 604W · HLCU/GTP16US4 | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 24-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM INNOVATION · 0MRKEE1MA · CMDU/AMERIGO | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD -3.0dCY -3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| KOBE EXPRESS · 604E · HLCU/GTEX | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD -2.0dCY -2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MOL CHARISMA · 234W · ONEY/PEC1 | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ONE MONACO · 029W · ONEY/PEC3 | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM TITAN · TUGZN · CMDU/OAAWE3 | ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| KIEL EXPRESS · 604E · HLCU/GTA2AL3 | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24-> ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC SWEDEN VI · NO605 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM ABU DHABI · RPKIN · CMDU/RTWNB | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK LUZ · 605W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ZONDA III · PH604 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR MEXICO · 605S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SEASPAN LIMA · 605S · MAEU/SAE | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Newark · USEWR · 5 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC KRYSTAL · 550A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC LISA · 604A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC URSULA VI · 605A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC OLIVIA · 604S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC DORADO VIII · 551A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Long Beach · USLGB · 8 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OOCL POLAND · 056 · OOLU/PCC1 | ERD Dec 29 | CY Cut Jan 3-> ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 24 |
ERD +17.9dCY +21.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| HMM PEARL · 0010W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 15-> ERD Jan 1 | CY Cut Jan 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +4.8d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK GLACIER · 605S · MAEU/U8E | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| COSCO SHIPPING YANGPU · 004 · COSU/PVCS | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 21-> ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC LUCIANA · 603S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE | ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut Jan 21-> ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| HMM AMETHYST · 0008 · ONEY/008W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM AMETHYST · 0008 · ONEY/008W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK MAMMOTH · 603 · MAEU/PANZ | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Oakland · USOAK · 27 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRESIDENT GRANT · 0DBNCW1MA · CMDU/EX1APL | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY -7.4d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| EVER MILD · 1435-008W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD -3.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Mixed | High |
| MAERSK YELLOWSTONE · 604S · MAEU/067 | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC ROSA M · 604S · MSCU/SENTOSA | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| PRESIDENT GRANT · 0DBNC · CMDU/UNKN | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| WAN HAI A06 · 012W · WHL/UNKN | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| YM WORTH · 050W · YMLU/UNKN | ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER FAR · 1201-029W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 20-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +4.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| HMM PEARL · 010W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| NYK Oceanus · 080W · ONEY/FP1 | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EVER LEADING · 1202-080W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER MILD · 1435-008E · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GEORGE III · 091W · PHH/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GEORGE III · 091W · PSHI/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GERNER MAERSK · 605W · MAEU/708 | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GUTHORM MAERSK · 604W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 21-> ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 21 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM AMETHYST · 0008 · ONEY/008W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM AMETHYST · 008W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM PEARL · 0010 · ONEY/010W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC Elisabetta · 603R · MSCU/CAX | ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 21-> ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 21 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC LUCIANA · 603S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NPDL CALIFORNIA · 2603S · NPD/UNKN | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NYK OCEANUS · 0080 · ONEY/080W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| WAN HAI A06 · 012W · WHLC/UNKN | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM Unicorn · 078W · YMLU/PS3 | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM UNICORN · 0078 · ONEY/078W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM Uniformity · 081W · YMLU/PS4 | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Tacoma · USTIW · 4 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVER EAGLE · 0144-193W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 21-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +6.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MAERSK SARNIA · 605W · MAEU/WC4 | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| EVER MACRO · 1434-006W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE MATRIX · 101 · ONEY/PN3 | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Los Angeles · USLAX · 12 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYK OCEANUS · 0FJMMW1MA · CMDU/FUJI | ERD Jan 6 | CY Cut Jan 18-> ERD Jan 13 | CY Cut Jan 16 |
ERD +7.5dCY -2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| NYK METEOR · 088E · ONEY/AL5 | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ZIM ALBATROSS · 011W · ZIMU/ZX2 | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER LEADING · 1202W · EGLV/CPS | ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 21-> ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 21 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER MACH · 1436-014E · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM AMETHYST · 0008 · ONEY/008W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HUDSON EXPRESS · 604W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 19-> ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK ALFIRK · 605W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NAVIOS CONSTELLATION · 601W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POTOMAC EXPRESS · 605W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM UNICORN · 0078 · ONEY/078W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM UNICORN · 078W · YMLU/UNKN | ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 19-> ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Houston · USHOU · 22 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC UNITED VIII · GN603W · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +13.0dCY +13.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC UNITED VIII · GN603W · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Jan 5 | CY Cut Jan 9-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +13.0dCY +13.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| NORTHERN JUVENILE · 0PGMMW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +2.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| NORTHERN JUVENILE · 0PGMMW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +2.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| OOCL VERACRUZ · 015E · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 16-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| OOCL VERACRUZ · 015E · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 16-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| YM MODERATION · 081W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 15-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 21 |
ERD +7.0dCY +6.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| YM MODERATION · 081W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 15-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 21 |
ERD +7.0dCY +6.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| NORTHERN JAGUAR · 605W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD -1.0dCY -4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| NORTHERN JAGUAR · 605W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD -1.0dCY -4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC NAMIBIA · MG603E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Jan 13 | CY Cut Jan 19-> ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 19 |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC NAMIBIA · MG603E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Jan 13 | CY Cut Jan 19-> ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 19 |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC CORUNA · NH604R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC CORUNA · NH604R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK SEBAROK · 603E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 20-> ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 21 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK SEBAROK · 603E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 20-> ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 21 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK TENNESSEE · 604E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Moderate |
| MAERSK TENNESSEE · 604E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Moderate |
| CMA CGM BERLIOZ · 0GBEWS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM BERLIOZ · 0GBEWS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK TENNESSEE · 605E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK TENNESSEE · 605E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
New York · USNYC · 6 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMA CGM ORANGE · 604E/W · CMDU/RTWPAN | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 16-> ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 19 |
ERD +1.0dCY +3.3d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| APL ESPLANADE · 1TUH3N1 · CMDU/COLUMBUS | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 24-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM AMBITION · 602E/W · CMDU/AMRGO | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 21 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM SURABAYA · 604E/W · CMDU/CAGML | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| KOI · 604E/W · CMDU/INDAMEX | ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE GRUS · 029-2 · ONEY/EC3L | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Norfolk · USORF · 24 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APL ESPLANADE · 1TUGZN1 · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Jan 9 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +11.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| ZIM MOUNT BLANC · 011W · ZIMU/ZCP | ERD Jan 7 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +9.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| YM TRUST · 103W · YMLU/EC2 | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +7.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC CHIARA X · GU603E · MSCU/AMERICA | ERD Jan 8 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +7.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK OHIO · 602W · MAEU/801 | ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ONE MEISHAN · 029W · ONEY/EC3 | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| WAN HAI A18 · W004 · WHLC/AA7 | ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| KOI · 0INLJW1 · CMDU/EIS | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| TAIPEI TRIUMPH · 1336W · EGLV/LP2 | ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK CALABAR · 604E · MAEU/AL6 | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 21 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| KOI · 0XR9WW1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| AGIOS DIMITRIOS · IU604R · MSCU/INDX | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM SYRACUSE · 0INLKE1 · CMDU/EIS | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM SYRACUSE · 0XR9WW1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CORCOVADO · 604W · HLCU/US2 | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC PRATITI · MZ604R · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM AMBITION · 0MRK8E1 · CMDU/AMERIGO | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26405N · CCBZ/BAL | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| KIEL EXPRESS · 604E · HLCU/AL3 | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| KOBE EXPRESS · 604E · HLCU/TEX | ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC MAGNUM VII · UA604A · MSCU/MD | ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE MARVEL · 082W · ONEY/WIN | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR MEXICO · 605S · MAEU/NAE | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| TOLTEN · 5251 · HLCU/TPI | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Seattle · USSEA · 8 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC GAIA · 604S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM NINGBO · 0TNHI · CMDU/CPNW | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +6.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CMA CGM GANGES · 0TNHI · CMDU/UNKN | ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4-> ERD Dec 1 | CY Cut Dec 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ESL SEATTLE · 2601W · ESL/UNKN | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK YOSEMITE · 605S · MAEU/067 | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OOCL OAKLAND · 138W · OOLU/UNKN | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SM MUMBAI · 2509W · SMC/UNKN | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| WESTWOOD COLUMBIA · 152W · WWS/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
6. Weekly Signal Flags
- MSCU/PHILLYEXP: 2 of this carrier-service's 3 vessels this week classified High.
7. Ports to Watch
Savannah (USSAV) warrants extra buffer this week. 50.0% of vessels classified High, 40.0% showed late-stage movement across 30 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Newark (USEWR) warrants extra buffer this week. 40.0% of vessels classified High, 80.0% showed late-stage movement across 5 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Long Beach (USLGB) warrants extra buffer this week. 37.5% of vessels classified High, 62.5% showed late-stage movement across 8 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
8. Close
Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly, see the ladder below for how weekly detection feeds monthly diagnosis. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 1 February 2026. For monthly context, see the January 2026 VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.
Appendix A
Stability classification thresholds and late-stage flag definition carry forward each week from the Safe-to-Gate Weekly framework (v1.1). See the framework document for the full methodology reference.
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