THE LOADED BOX · SAFE-TO-GATE WEEKLY EDITION
Safe-to-Gate Weekly - Week of February 7, 2026
Vessel-level signals from the past seven days: where schedules moved, which ports warrant extra buffer, and what the week ahead likely holds.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly · 1-7 February 2026
Reader's narrative
Savannah ran the week. 34 vessels through the gateway. 70.6% classified High.
The largest single-voyage shift came from OOCL EUROPE 209E (OOLU) at Savannah - ERD +18.0d and CY Cut +18.0d from the originally published window.
The cross-port pattern shows up in carrier-service clusters: MAEU/BRAZEX recorded 2 of its 4 vessels High this week. MAEU/MECL recorded 2 of 4. The instability is service-shaped, not just port-shaped.
Savannah, Tacoma, Houston, Long Beach, and New York are on the watch list. If the pattern holds another week, the ports carry into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate. the watch list is not a verdict - it is a flag that the next gate is being watched.
How to read the publication.
Section 3 (Port Summary) gives the network shape. Section 5 (Per-Port Vessel Tables) lists every vessel that departed - 186 rows total - with original-vs-actual CRW, shift magnitude, late-stage flag, and stability classification. The vessel tables are the unit of truth. Everything else is summary.
Sustained Churn - paired ERD and CY Cut activity persisting through the planning horizon - is the cross-month pattern these weeklies feed into. The mechanism is described in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly. The weekly tables show where it surfaced.
A noisy week is workload. A noisy week inside the planning horizon is failure.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly
Sunday 1 February 2026 through Saturday 7 February 2026
Published: Monday 9 February 2026 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2026-02-01/
1. Weekly Note
This week covers vessel-voyages that departed U.S. export gateways between Sunday 1 February 2026 and Saturday 7 February 2026. Savannah showed the highest share of High classification at 70.6%. Savannah held the largest single-voyage shift with OOCL EUROPE 209E at ERD +18.0d and CY Cut +18.0d. Full vessel tables below.
2. Signal, Not Verdict
Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.
3. Port Summary
| Port | Vessels this week | % High | % Late-stage | Dominant direction | Port stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USSAV Savannah | 34 | 70.6% | 76.5% | Mixed | High |
| USTIW Tacoma | 6 | 66.7% | 66.7% | Mixed | High |
| USHOU Houston | 38 | 52.6% | 52.6% | Mixed | High |
| USLGB Long Beach | 10 | 50.0% | 80.0% | Mixed | High |
| USNYC New York | 6 | 33.3% | 66.7% | Mixed | High |
| USEWR Newark | 14 | 21.4% | 50.0% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USSEA Seattle | 10 | 20.0% | 10.0% | Late-biased | Elevated |
| USORF Norfolk | 33 | 18.2% | 33.3% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USLAX Los Angeles | 12 | 16.7% | 50.0% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USOAK Oakland | 23 | 8.7% | 30.4% | Mixed | Elevated |
Covered ports: 10 U.S. export gateways. Charleston (USCHS) had zero departures in the week window and is omitted per framework Section 6.
4. Quick Scan Layer
- Savannah: 76.5% late-stage movement across 34 vessels.
- Tacoma: 66.7% late-stage movement across 6 vessels.
- Houston: 52.6% late-stage movement across 38 vessels.
- Long Beach: 80.0% late-stage movement across 10 vessels.
- New York: 66.7% late-stage movement across 6 vessels.
5. Per-Port Vessel Tables
Savannah · USSAV · 34 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OOCL EUROPE · 209E · OOLU/TA1AL6 | ERD Jan 10 | CY Cut Jan 16-> ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +18.0dCY +18.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| X-PRESS ANTLIA · 14E · COSU/EMA | ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 21-> ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +9.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC DUBAI VII · MG601 · MSCU/MMEDGULF | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC LISA · UF604 · MSCU/MUSWASA | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 31 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC KRYSTAL · IV550 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE COLUMBA · 525W · ONEY/PEC2 | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| OOCL TULIP · 001W · OOLU/OALP2 | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 24-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| KINGSTON · 018E · ONEY/EMA | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 31 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| KOI · INLKE · CMDU/CBX | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD -4.0dCY -4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MOL PROFICIENCY · 251E · ONEY/OAONEAT2 | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC DORADO VIII · MZ604 · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC PASSION III · PH605 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 3-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 31 |
ERD -2.0dCY -3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC SHANELLE V · IU605 · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 31-> ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| WAN HAI A18 · W004 · WHLC/AA7 | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD -3.0dCY -3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| APL ESPLANADE · TUH3N · CMDU/OAAWE3 | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 31-> ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD -2.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM SYRACUSE · XR9WW · CMDU/INDAMEX2 | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 31-> ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD -2.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| NEVZAT KALKAVAN · USBGE · TRKU/TURKON | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ZIM OPAL · 9W · ZIMU/MEMERALD | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 31-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CAPE SKAGEN · RPKMN · CMDU/RTWNB | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 3-> ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK CALABAR · 604E · MAEU/GTA12AL6 | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK SENANG · 605E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| TOLTEN · 5251 · HLCU/INDAMEX | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK SINGAPORE · 606W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 4-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC MAGNUM VII · UA604 · MSCU/MSCESA1 | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 31-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 31 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER FOND · 021W · EGLV/OAAWE4 | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| TAURUS · 040W · EGLV/OAAUE | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 31 |
ERD +4.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| ONE MILANO · 031W · ONEY/PEC3 | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 31 |
ERD -1.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| BASLE EXPRESS · 602W · HLCU/GTP16US4 | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 31-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 31 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ONE MARVEL · 0082W · ONEY/WIN | ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 31 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| OOCL MAGNOLIA · 003W · OOLU/OALP2 | ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 4-> ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM BLUE · RPKKN · CMDU/RTWNB | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| LUCIE SCHULTE · 606S · MAEU/SAE | ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC BRIANNA V · IU605 · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 31-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 31 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR BRASIL · 606S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Tacoma · USTIW · 6 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YM MASCULINITY · 0103 · ONEY/103W | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +5.0dCY +11.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| FRANKFURT EXPRESS · 606W · MAEU/WC4 | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 5 |
ERD +6.0dCY +6.3d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| EVER SMILE · 0145-130W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +5.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| EVER MILD · 1435-008W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| SEATTLE BRIDGE · 0101 · ONEY/102E | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| SEATTLE BRIDGE · 101 · ONEY/PN1 | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Houston · USHOU · 38 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANZANILLO BRIDGE · GN604W · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 16-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +13.0dCY +13.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MANZANILLO BRIDGE · GN604W · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 16-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +13.0dCY +13.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| CONTI CORTESIA · 0011W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +11.0dCY +12.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| CONTI CORTESIA · 0011W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +11.0dCY +12.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC ARICA · IV602R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 15-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +9.0dCY +12.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC ARICA · IV602R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 15-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +9.0dCY +12.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC ARICA · MG603E · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 15-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +9.0dCY +12.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC ARICA · MG603E · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 15-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +9.0dCY +12.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MARIANNA I · IV604R · MSCU/XTRA | ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 20-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +11.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MARIANNA I · IV604R · MSCU/XTRA | ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 20-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +11.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MSC PETRA · 604S · MSCU/SCS | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +9.0dCY +8.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MSC PETRA · 604S · MSCU/SCS | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +9.0dCY +8.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MSC CADIZ · MG604E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 20-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +8.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC CADIZ · MG604E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 20-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +8.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM RABELAIS · 0GBESS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 16-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +8.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| CMA CGM RABELAIS · 0GBESS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 16-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD +8.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MSC EXPRESS III · LE607A · MSCU/GOX | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD -6.0dCY -8.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MSC EXPRESS III · LE607A · MSCU/GOX | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD -6.0dCY -8.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| HERMANN SCHULTE · NH605R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +5.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| HERMANN SCHULTE · NH605R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +5.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM MOLIERE · 0VBLOE1MA · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +4.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CMA CGM MOLIERE · 0VBLOE1MA · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +4.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC ELA · NH603R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 15-> ERD Jan 13 | CY Cut Jan 20 |
ERD +2.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC ELA · NH603R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut Jan 15-> ERD Jan 13 | CY Cut Jan 20 |
ERD +2.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| KOSTAS K · 606W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 31 |
ERD +1.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| KOSTAS K · 606W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 31 |
ERD +1.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK ATLANTA · 604E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK ATLANTA · 604E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ROTTERDAM · 84E84W · ZIMU/LONESTAR | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ROTTERDAM · 84E84W · ZIMU/LONESTAR | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ALESSIA · 037S · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ALESSIA · 037S · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CHENNAI EXPRESS · 605E · HLCU/MGX | ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 4-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CHENNAI EXPRESS · 605E · HLCU/MGX | ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 4-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM LA SCALA · 0PGMOW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM LA SCALA · 0PGMOW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ROTTERDAM · 84W · ZIMU/LONESTAR | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ROTTERDAM · 84W · ZIMU/LONESTAR | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Long Beach · USLGB · 10 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMM DIAMOND · 0008 · ONEY/009E | ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +2.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| HMM DIAMOND · 0008W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +2.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| OOCL SINGAPORE · 063 · OOLU/PCC1 | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +3.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| OOCL BAUHINIA · 009 · OOLU/PVCS | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD -1.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Mixed | High |
| MAERSK OLYMPIC · 606S · MAEU/U8E | ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 4-> ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.4d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| OOCL LONDON · 120 · OOLU/PSX | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD -2.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Mixed | Elevated |
| MSC ELISABETTA · 603R · MSCU/CALIFORNIA EXPRESS | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CSCL YELLOW SEA · 068W · CHN/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK YELLOWSTONE · 604 · MAEU/PANZ | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC MARTINA MARIA · 605S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 22 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
New York · USNYC · 6 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMA CGM LOUGA · 605E/W · CMDU/RTWPAN | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAGDALENA SCHULTE · 606E/W · CMDU/AMERXL | ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 4-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.3d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ONE MEISHAN · 029-2 · ONEY/EC3L | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +6.0dCY +6.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| ONE MONACO · 029-2 · ONEY/EC3L | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 1-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM HOMERE · 606E/W · CMDU/CAGML | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +1.0dCY -0.7d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ONE HONOLULU · 228E/W · ONEY/ADHOC | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Newark · USEWR · 14 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC VIGO · 605E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD +2.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ATLANTIC SKY · 6426 · ACLU/UNKN | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC FLORENTINA · 604E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut Jan 23 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK MEMPHIS · 608E · MAEU/812 | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +2.0dCY +6.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| BREMEN · 604B · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| KURE · 605W · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC ROSARIA · 605A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| PL GERMANY · 609E · MAEU/803 | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| SAN FRANCISCO BRIDGE · 084W · ONEY/UNKN | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Feb 27 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ATLANTIC SEA · 6326 · ACLU/UNKN | ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| LONDON EXPRESS · 614E · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Mar 24 | CY Cut Mar 27-> ERD Mar 24 | CY Cut Mar 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK TAIKUNG · 608W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ANAHITA · 551A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NHAVA SHEVA EXPRESS · 609W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Seattle · USSEA · 10 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAUTOKA CHIEF · 007W · WSL/UNKN | ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 21-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +8.0dCY +6.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MSC ATHOS · 605R · MSCU/CALIFORNIA EXPRESS | ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MH PERSEUS · 0TNHK · CMDU/CPNW | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM NINGBO · 0TNUE · CMDU/UNKN | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM PEGASUS · 0TNHM · CMDU/UNKN | ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18-> ERD Dec 15 | CY Cut Dec 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COSCO BOSTON · 202S · COSU/UNKN | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC RANIA VIII · 605S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OOCL NEW YORK · 116W · OOLU/UNKN | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SM SEOUL · 2601W · SMC/UNKN | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| VALOR · 606R · MSCU/CALIFORNIA EXPRESS | ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 3-> ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Norfolk · USORF · 33 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSCO PRIDE · 086W · COSU/LP1 | ERD Jan 11 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +13.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| X PRESS ANTLIA · 014E · COSU/AL8 | ERD Jan 10 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +11.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC URSULA VI · UA605A · MSCU/MD | ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +8.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| KINGSTON · 018E · ONEY/AL8 | ERD Jan 17 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +6.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| MAERSK SEBAROK · 603E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 21 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +1.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ZIM MOUNT DENALI · 011W · ZIMU/ZCP | ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| BERNHARD SCHULTE · 269E · COSU/AL8 | ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +5.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK KANSAS · 603W · MAEU/801 | ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD +3.0dCY +4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC FLORENTINA · NO604E · MSCU/NEUSEC2 | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| OOCL EUROPE · 209E · OOLU/AMERIGO | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ZIM ATLANTIC · 039E · ZIMU/AL7 | ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK TENNESSEE · 605E · MAEU/801 | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Feb 3-> ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ONE MONACO · 029W · ONEY/EC3 | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MH PEGASUS · 0XR9YW1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 4-> ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ONE COLUMBA · 525W · ONEY/EC2 | ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 4-> ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| WAN HAI A13 · W008 · WHLC/AA7 | ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ATLANTIC SKY · ATK6426 · ACLU/ACL-A | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MAERSK FREDERICIA · 605E · MAEU/TA3 | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Moderate |
| COSCO HOPE · 073E · OOLU/TA2 | ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ATLANTIC STAR · AST6426 · ACLU/ACL-A | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| BREMEN · GU604E · MSCU/AMERICA | ERD Jan 18 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 19 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| BBC GEORGIA · 001E · UNKN/BB | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CARMEL I · 033E · ZIMU/AL7 | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COCHRANE · 605W · HLCU/US2 | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA ELIZABETH · 26405N · CCBZ/BAL | ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26405N · COLUMBIA COASTAL/BARGE | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| LUDWIGSHAFEN EXPRESS · 605W · HLCU/US4 | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC FLORENTINA · NO611E · MSCU/NEUSEC2 | ERD Mar 15 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 15 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NAGOYA EXPRESS · 5252 · HLCU/TPI | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NEVZAT KALKAVAN · 0USBGE1TK · TRKU/TURKON-USA | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR BRASIL · 606S · MAEU/NAE | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| PORTO CHELI · 605E · MAEU/AL6 | ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 25 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| TITAN · 1337W · EGLV/LP2 | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Los Angeles · USLAX · 12 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONE HAMMERSMITH · 0FJMSW1MA · CMDU/FUJI | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +10.0dCY +8.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| HMM DIAMOND · 0008 · ONEY/009E | ERD Jan 12 | CY Cut Jan 22-> ERD Jan 14 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +2.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER MACH · 1436-014W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Jan 23-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +7.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MOL CELEBRATION · 103W · ONEY/PS3 | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 24 | CY Cut Jan 24 |
ERD -3.0dCY -3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EVER FOREVER · 1203W · EGLV/CPS | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.3d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ONE Arcadia · 075W · ONEY/PS4 | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ONE HANNOVER · 0FJMQW1MA · CMDU/FUJI | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.4d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC Giulia · MC604R · MSCU/CLX | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Feb 1-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD +0.3dCY +0.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| EVER MODE · 1437-006E · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GUNDE MAERSK · 606W · MAEU/708 | ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26-> ERD Jan 20 | CY Cut Jan 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MOL CELEBRATION · 0103 · ONEY/103W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE ARCADIA · 0075 · ONEY/075W | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 27-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Oakland · USOAK · 23 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JANET MARIE · 067W · PHH/UNKN | ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Jan 21-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +13.6d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC LUCIANA · GO603S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD -10.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Mixed | High |
| MSC Giulia · 604R · MSCU/CAX | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +3.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| EVER FOREVER · 1203-034W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut Feb 3-> ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 3 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| HMM AMETHYST · 008W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 28 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC LUCIANA · 603S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC MARTINA MARIA · 605S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| NPDL CALIFORNIA · 2603S · NPD/UNKN | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| GUNDE MAERSK · 606W · MAEU/708 | ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 4-> ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.4d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK YOSEMITE · 605S · MAEU/067 | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.4d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| PRESIDENT MONROE · 0DBNEW1MA · CMDU/EX1APL | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.4d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC FREYA · 606S · MSCU/SENTOSA | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM LIBRA · 1TUG9 · CMDU/UNKN | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 29 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GERNER MAERSK · 605W · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM AMETHYST · 008W · HDMU/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM DIAMOND · 0008 · ONEY/008W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC GAIA · 604S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NPDL CALIFORNIA · 2603S · PDLU/UNKN | ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 26 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NYK Meteor · 088E · ONEY/AL5 | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Jan 30 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE HANNOVER · 0099 · ONEY/099W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE SPRINTER · 003W · ONEY/UNKN | ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Jan 29 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE SWAN · 033W · ONEY/GS2 | ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| PRESIDENT MONROE · 0DBNE · CMDU/UNKN | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
6. Weekly Signal Flags
- MAEU/BRAZEX: 2 of this carrier-service's 4 vessels this week classified High.
- MAEU/MECL: 2 of this carrier-service's 4 vessels this week classified High.
- MSCU/INDUS: 2 of this carrier-service's 3 vessels this week classified High.
- MSCU/INDUSA: 4 of this carrier-service's 4 vessels this week classified High.
7. Ports to Watch
Savannah (USSAV) warrants extra buffer this week. 70.6% of vessels classified High, 76.5% showed late-stage movement across 34 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Tacoma (USTIW) warrants extra buffer this week. 66.7% of vessels classified High, 66.7% showed late-stage movement across 6 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Houston (USHOU) warrants extra buffer this week. 52.6% of vessels classified High, 52.6% showed late-stage movement across 38 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Long Beach (USLGB) warrants extra buffer this week. 50.0% of vessels classified High, 80.0% showed late-stage movement across 10 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
New York (USNYC) warrants extra buffer this week. 33.3% of vessels classified High, 66.7% showed late-stage movement across 6 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
8. Close
Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly, see the ladder below for how weekly detection feeds monthly diagnosis. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 8 February 2026. For monthly context, see the February 2026 VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.
Appendix A
Stability classification thresholds and late-stage flag definition carry forward each week from the Safe-to-Gate Weekly framework (v1.1). See the framework document for the full methodology reference.
Explore Related Intelligence
MONTHLY · DIAGNOSIS
Safe-to-Gate Monthly
The monthly structural diagnosis these weekly signals feed into.
MONTHLY · EVIDENCEVSSI Monthly
Port-level stability measurement underneath the weekly signals.
QUARTERLY · INDEXTerminal Volatility Index
Terminal-level structural measurement across the quarter.
Bill Hewitt,
Frey Commodities
Frey Commodities
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