THE LOADED BOX · SAFE-TO-GATE WEEKLY EDITION
Safe-to-Gate Weekly - Week of February 21, 2026
Vessel-level signals from the past seven days: where schedules moved, which ports warrant extra buffer, and what the week ahead likely holds.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly · 15-21 February 2026
Reader's narrative
Savannah ran the week. 32 vessels through the gateway. 75.0% classified High.
The largest single-voyage shift came from JANET MARIE 068W (PHH) at Oakland - ERD +28.5d and CY Cut +27.6d from the originally published window.
The cross-port pattern shows up in carrier-service clusters: CMDU/CBX recorded 3 of its 5 vessels High this week. MAEU/MECL recorded 4 of 6. The instability is service-shaped, not just port-shaped.
Savannah, Long Beach, and Tacoma are on the watch list. If the pattern holds another week, the ports carry into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate. the watch list is not a verdict - it is a flag that the next gate is being watched.
How to read the publication.
Section 3 (Port Summary) gives the network shape. Section 5 (Per-Port Vessel Tables) lists every vessel that departed - 169 rows total - with original-vs-actual CRW, shift magnitude, late-stage flag, and stability classification. The vessel tables are the unit of truth. Everything else is summary.
Sustained Churn - paired ERD and CY Cut activity persisting through the planning horizon - is the cross-month pattern these weeklies feed into. The mechanism is described in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly. The weekly tables show where it surfaced.
A noisy week is workload. A noisy week inside the planning horizon is failure.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly
Sunday 15 February 2026 through Saturday 21 February 2026
Published: Monday 23 February 2026 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2026-02-15/
1. Weekly Note
This week covers vessel-voyages that departed U.S. export gateways between Sunday 15 February 2026 and Saturday 21 February 2026. Savannah showed the highest share of High classification at 75.0%. Oakland held the largest single-voyage shift with JANET MARIE 068W at ERD +28.5d and CY Cut +27.6d. Full vessel tables below.
2. Signal, Not Verdict
Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.
3. Port Summary
| Port | Vessels this week | % High | % Late-stage | Dominant direction | Port stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USSAV Savannah | 32 | 75.0% | 75.0% | Mixed | High |
| USLGB Long Beach | 11 | 45.5% | 63.6% | Mixed | High |
| USOAK Oakland | 14 | 28.6% | 35.7% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USORF Norfolk | 40 | 25.0% | 37.5% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USEWR Newark | 15 | 20.0% | 26.7% | Late-biased | Elevated |
| USLAX Los Angeles | 18 | 16.7% | 33.3% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USHOU Houston | 24 | 8.3% | 16.7% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USTIW Tacoma | 3 | 0.0% | 66.7% | Mixed | High |
| USSEA Seattle | 6 | 0.0% | 33.3% | Late-biased | Moderate |
| USNYC New York | 6 | 0.0% | 16.7% | Mixed | Moderate |
Covered ports: 10 U.S. export gateways. Charleston (USCHS) had zero departures in the week window and is omitted per framework Section 6.
4. Quick Scan Layer
- Savannah: 75.0% late-stage movement across 32 vessels.
- Long Beach: 63.6% late-stage movement across 11 vessels.
- Oakland: 28.6% of vessels classified High across 14 total.
- Norfolk: 25.0% of vessels classified High across 40 total.
- Newark: 15 vessels, Elevated at the port level.
5. Per-Port Vessel Tables
Savannah · USSAV · 32 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC LUCY · MZ605 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Jan 28-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 14 |
ERD +17.0dCY +17.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| SEABOARD GEMINI · 00047 · SMLU/SMJS | ERD Jan 27 | CY Cut Feb 2-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +14.0dCY +15.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC GIOVANNA VII · IV551 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Jan 31 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +11.0dCY +11.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC KIM · UF606 · MSCU/MUSWASA | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 10-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE CRANE · 034W · ONEY/PEC3 | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 7-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 14 |
ERD +6.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC GHANA · MG603 · MSCU/MMEDGULF | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 10-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14 |
ERD +5.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| TUBUL · 2508W · HLCU/AA7 | ERD Jan 31 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| OOCL KAPOK · 002W · OOLU/OALP2 | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 7-> ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| ZIM MOUNT EVEREST · 12W · ZIMU/MZCP | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 9-> ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| BREMEN EXPRESS · 6201 · HLCU/INDAMEX | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD -3.0dCY -3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC BARCELONA · MG604 · MSCU/MMEDGULF | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +2.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC YAMUNA VI · UA606 · MSCU/MSCESA1 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| EVER MAGI · 011W · EGLV/OAAUE | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 10 |
ERD -2.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| FOS EXPRESS · 607E · HLCU/GTEX | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK SHAMS · 608W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 11-> ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| OOCL LAVENDER · 001W · OOLU/OALP2 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CYPRESS · INLLW · CMDU/CBX | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 14 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK SELETAR · 607E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| YANTIAN EXPRESS · 607E · HLCU/GTA2AL3 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| APL SENTOSA · TUHBN · CMDU/OAAWE3 | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK HARTFORD · 608E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK TAIKUNG · 608W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC JULIANA III · PH607 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ROME EXPRESS · 606W · HLCU/GTP16US4 | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| AL SAFAT · 606E · HLCU/GTA2AL3 | ERD Jan 31 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| TOLEDO TRIUMPH · 038W · EGLV/OAAWE4 | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 7-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +5.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| ONE MAGNIFICENCE · 0083W · ONEY/WIN | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 10-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 14 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CMA CGM GREEN · RPKON · CMDU/RTWNB | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Moderate |
| HENRIKA SCHULTE · NO606 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD -2.0dCY -2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM GANGES · XRA0W · CMDU/INDAMEX2 | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK NEWHAVEN · 608S · MAEU/SAE | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR MEXICO · 608S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Long Beach · USLGB · 11 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMM RUBY · 0011 · ONEY/011W | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 9-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +8.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| HMM RUBY · 0011W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 9-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +8.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| MSC DEILA · 606S · MSCU/SENTOSA | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 6 |
ERD +7.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| OOCL VIOLET · 007 · OOLU/PVCS | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD -4.0dCY +1.4d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Mixed | High |
| MSC KUMSAL · 607S · MSCU/SENTOSA | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 9-> ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 9 |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| MSC DEILA · 607S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Jan 30-> ERD Jan 23 | CY Cut Feb 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| XIN MEI ZHOU · 164 · OOLU/PSX | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD -0.4dCY -3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CSCL BOHAI SEA · 074W · CHN/UNKN | ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 11-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM SEATTLE · 606 · ANL/PANZ | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK SEQUOIA · 608S · MAEU/U8E | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC KUMSAL · 608S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 9-> ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Oakland · USOAK · 14 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JANET MARIE · 068W · PHH/UNKN | ERD Jan 15 | CY Cut Jan 21-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +28.5dCY +27.6d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM PANAMA · 1TUGD · CMDU/CJX | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +4.0dCY +7.6d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| EVER MODE · 1437-006W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +7.2d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| EVER MOST · 1438-007W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +1.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER LEGACY · 1204-074W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 10-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +4.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| HMM RUBY · 011W · HDMU/UNKN | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD -3.5dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC KUMSAL · 607S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD -2.5dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ONE SINGAPORE · 516W · ONEY/PS7 | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.6d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EVER MOST · 1438-007E · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD -3.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CONTI CONQUEST · 0034 · ONEY/034W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM RUBY · 0011 · ONEY/011W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK ALTAIR · 607W · MAEU/708 | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 11-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLYNESIA · 2604S · PLL/UNKN | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLYNESIA · 2604S · PLLU/UNKN | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Norfolk · USORF · 40 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDISON · 1TUH3N1 · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Jan 16 | CY Cut Feb 3-> ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +14.0dCY +9.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| CMA CGM INNOVATION · 0MRKCE1 · CMDU/AMERIGO | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +2.0dCY +12.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| AL MANAMAH · 605E · HLCU/AL3 | ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +9.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| OOCL FRANCE · 068W · COSU/LP1 | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +8.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK KANSAS · 607E · MAEU/801 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +4.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| MAERSK SENANG · 605E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 10-> ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CYPRESS · 0XRA0W1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| CYPRESS · 0INLLW1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK DENVER · 606E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC SINDY · NO606E · MSCU/NEUSEC2 | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC JUBILEE IX · GU606E · MSCU/AMERICA | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +7.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| AL SAFAT · 606E · HLCU/AL3 | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +6.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EVER MERCY · 1339W · EGLV/LP2 | ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| HMM VICTORY · 058W · HDMU/EC2 | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| HYUNDAI SATURN · 051W · ONEY/EC1 | ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +2.0dCY -3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| POLAR MEXICO · 608S · MAEU/NAE | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY -3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| APL SENTOSA · 1TUHBN1 · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD -2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| BELITA · 0INLPW1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM GANGES · 0XRA0W1 · CMDU/EIS | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| FOS EXPRESS · 603W · HLCU/TEX | ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC VERACRUZ V · IU607R · MSCU/INDX | ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ONE OWL · 032W · ONEY/EC2 | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| PUSAN C · GU607E · MSCU/AMERICA | ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CISNES · 607W · HLCU/US4 | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC ROCHELLE · UA607A · MSCU/MD | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MELCHIOR SCHULTE · 0USBIE1TK · TRKU/TURKON-USA | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| YANTIAN EXPRESS · 607E · HLCU/AL3 | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| BELITA · 0XRA2W1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26407N · CCBZ/BAL | ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| NILEDUTCH LION · 6202 · HLCU/TPI | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ATLANTIC SUN · ASU6826 · ACLU/ACL-A | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM GANGES · 0INLOE1 · CMDU/EIS | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLOMBO EXPRESS · 607W · HLCU/US2 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA ELIZABETH · 26407N · CCBZ/BAL | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA ELIZABETH · 26407N · COLUMBIA COASTAL/BARGE | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26108N · CCBZ/BAL | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26108N · COLUMBIA COASTAL/BARGE | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26407N · COLUMBIA COASTAL/BARGE | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE MAGNIFICENCE · 083W · ONEY/WIN | ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| PL GERMANY · 608E · MAEU/TA3 | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Newark · USEWR · 15 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC RACHELE · 608E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| FOS EXPRESS · 603W · MAEU/810 | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK NACALA · 608S · MAEU/U7J | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC NAGOYA V · 607A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ATLANTIC SAIL · 5926 · ACLU/UNKN | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| DORTMUND EXPRESS · 608W · MAEU/716 | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK FRANKFURT · 608S · MAEU/UHC | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK SINGAPORE · 606W · MAEU/711 | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC INGRID · 607R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC MEXICO V · 608R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC MUMBAI VIII · 607W · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ROCHELLE · 605A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ROME · 602E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 11-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC SOFIA · 607S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| VIENNA EXPRESS · 608W · MAEU/712 | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Los Angeles · USLAX · 18 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVER MOST · 1438-007W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +6.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| EVER FORWARD · 1205-028W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +5.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| NYK ROMULUS · 077E · ONEY/AL5 | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 9-> ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.4dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CONTI CONQUEST · 034W · ZIMU/PS3 | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD +1.7dCY +4.7d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EVER MOST · 1438-007E · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 10 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| NYK VIRGO · 0FJMWW1MA · CMDU/FUJI | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| YM UNANIMITY · 084W · ONEY/PS3 | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CONTI CONQUEST · 034W · ONEY/PS3 | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 3-> ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 5 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM FORT DIAMANT · 0TXMCW1MA · CMDU/LP1 | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM J ADAMS · 1TUGHW1MA · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 9-> ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM PANAMA · 1TUGDW1MA · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Jan 30 | CY Cut Feb 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM TARPON · 0GVLVW1MA · CMDU/EXX | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLORADO EXPRESS · 607W · MAEU/707 | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 9-> ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CONTI CONQUEST · 0034 · ONEY/034W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CORCOVADO · 604W · MAEU/712 | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK CANDOR · 608W · MAEU/708 | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 9-> ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| PRESIDENT BUSH · 0DBNIW1PL · APL/EX1 | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM UNANIMITY · 0084 · ONEY/084W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Houston · USHOU · 24 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC DUBAI VII · MG606E · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 3-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +12.0dCY +13.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC DUBAI VII · MG606E · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Jan 28 | CY Cut Feb 3-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +12.0dCY +13.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| EVER SALUTE · 126W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| EVER SALUTE · 126W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC ANAHITA · IV606R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC ANAHITA · IV606R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| GSL SOFIA · 607W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 9-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +5.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| GSL SOFIA · 607W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 9-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +5.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC EVEREST VIII · MG607E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 10-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC EVEREST VIII · MG607E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 10-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK COLUMBUS · 608E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK COLUMBUS · 608E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK DENVER · 606E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK DENVER · 606E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| AS CAMELLIA · 608S · MSCU/GOX | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 15-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| AS CAMELLIA · 608S · MSCU/GOX | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 15-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 15 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HANS SCHULTE · 0GBF0S1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HANS SCHULTE · 0GBF0S1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK COLUMBUS · 607E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK COLUMBUS · 607E · MAEU/AL2 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC BHAVYA V · NH607R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC BHAVYA V · NH607R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC MICHAELA · IV607R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 11-> ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC MICHAELA · IV607R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 11-> ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Tacoma · USTIW · 3 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVER SIGMA · 0147-139W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY -3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| HMM HOPE · 0059 · ONEY/059W | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EVER MACH · 1436-014W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 10-> ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Seattle · USSEA · 6 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC SENEGAL · 607R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC SENEGAL · UK607R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CAPE SOUNIO · 608R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| COSCO VENICE · 077S · COSU/UNKN | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 11-> ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| KOTA LUKIS · 2601W · SMC/UNKN | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 11-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MATE · 607S · SUD/UNKN | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
New York · USNYC · 6 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMA CGM ANDROMEDA · 1TUHJN1 · CMDU/COLUMBUS | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY -3.7d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM LAPIS · 607E/W · CMDU/TUX | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +3.3d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM SURABAYA · 607E/W · CMDU/CAGML | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| BELITA · 607E/W · CMDU/INDAMEX | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE FALCON · 031-2 · ONEY/EC3L | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE MILANO · 031-2 · ONEY/EC3L | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 8-> ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
6. Weekly Signal Flags
- CMDU/CBX: 3 of this carrier-service's 5 vessels this week classified High.
- MAEU/MECL: 4 of this carrier-service's 6 vessels this week classified High.
7. Ports to Watch
Savannah (USSAV) warrants extra buffer this week. 75.0% of vessels classified High, 75.0% showed late-stage movement across 32 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Long Beach (USLGB) warrants extra buffer this week. 45.5% of vessels classified High, 63.6% showed late-stage movement across 11 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Tacoma (USTIW) warrants extra buffer this week. 0.0% of vessels classified High, 66.7% showed late-stage movement across 3 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
8. Close
Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly, see the ladder below for how weekly detection feeds monthly diagnosis. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 22 February 2026. For monthly context, see the February 2026 VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.
Appendix A
Stability classification thresholds and late-stage flag definition carry forward each week from the Safe-to-Gate Weekly framework (v1.1). See the framework document for the full methodology reference.
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Bill Hewitt,
Frey Commodities
Frey Commodities
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