THE LOADED BOX · SAFE-TO-GATE WEEKLY EDITION
Safe-to-Gate Weekly - Week of February 28, 2026
Vessel-level signals from the past seven days: where schedules moved, which ports warrant extra buffer, and what the week ahead likely holds.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly · 22-28 February 2026
Reader's narrative
Savannah ran the week. 37 vessels through the gateway. 67.6% classified High.
The largest single-voyage shift came from GEORGE III 093W (PHH) at Oakland - ERD +28.0d and CY Cut +15.0d from the originally published window.
The cross-port pattern shows up in carrier-service clusters: CMDU/EX1APL recorded 2 of its 3 vessels High this week. CMDU/PEXIII recorded 2 of 4. The instability is service-shaped, not just port-shaped.
Savannah, Long Beach, and Norfolk are on the watch list. If the pattern holds another week, the ports carry into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate. the watch list is not a verdict - it is a flag that the next gate is being watched.
How to read the publication.
Section 3 (Port Summary) gives the network shape. Section 5 (Per-Port Vessel Tables) lists every vessel that departed - 173 rows total - with original-vs-actual CRW, shift magnitude, late-stage flag, and stability classification. The vessel tables are the unit of truth. Everything else is summary.
Sustained Churn - paired ERD and CY Cut activity persisting through the planning horizon - is the cross-month pattern these weeklies feed into. The mechanism is described in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly. The weekly tables show where it surfaced.
A noisy week is workload. A noisy week inside the planning horizon is failure.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly
Sunday 22 February 2026 through Saturday 28 February 2026
Published: Monday 2 March 2026 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2026-02-22/
1. Weekly Note
This week covers vessel-voyages that departed U.S. export gateways between Sunday 22 February 2026 and Saturday 28 February 2026. Savannah showed the highest share of High classification at 67.6%. Oakland held the largest single-voyage shift with GEORGE III 093W at ERD +28.0d and CY Cut +15.0d. Full vessel tables below.
2. Signal, Not Verdict
Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.
3. Port Summary
| Port | Vessels this week | % High | % Late-stage | Dominant direction | Port stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USSAV Savannah | 37 | 67.6% | 62.2% | Mixed | High |
| USHOU Houston | 30 | 40.0% | 33.3% | Mixed | High |
| USOAK Oakland | 16 | 37.5% | 50.0% | Mixed | High |
| USLGB Long Beach | 14 | 35.7% | 78.6% | Mixed | High |
| USLAX Los Angeles | 21 | 33.3% | 33.3% | Mixed | High |
| USSEA Seattle | 8 | 25.0% | 25.0% | Late-biased | Elevated |
| USNYC New York | 7 | 14.3% | 28.6% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USORF Norfolk | 25 | 12.0% | 36.0% | Late-biased | Elevated |
| USEWR Newark | 12 | 0.0% | 25.0% | Mixed | Stable |
| USTIW Tacoma | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Early-biased | Stable |
Covered ports: 10 U.S. export gateways. Charleston (USCHS) had zero departures in the week window and is omitted per framework Section 6.
4. Quick Scan Layer
- Savannah: 62.2% late-stage movement across 37 vessels.
- Houston: 40.0% of vessels classified High across 30 total.
- Oakland: 50.0% late-stage movement across 16 vessels.
- Long Beach: 78.6% late-stage movement across 14 vessels.
- Los Angeles: 33.3% of vessels classified High across 21 total.
5. Per-Port Vessel Tables
Savannah · USSAV · 37 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDISON · TUGZN · CMDU/OAAWE3 | ERD Jan 31 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +14.0dCY +14.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| SEABOARD GARDENIA · 00042 · SMLU/SMJS | ERD Feb 3 | CY Cut Feb 10-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 24 |
ERD +14.0dCY +14.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE BLUE JAY · 040W · ONEY/PEC2 | ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 11-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 24 |
ERD +13.0dCY +13.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM INNOVATION · MRKCE · CMDU/TA1AL6 | ERD Feb 5 | CY Cut Feb 11-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 21 |
ERD +10.0dCY +10.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM LAPIS · UB8KE · CMDU/EMA | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 21 |
ERD +6.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC INGRID · MZ606 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC SINDY · NO606 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 21 |
ERD +6.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MELCHIOR SCHULTE · USBIE · TRKU/TURKON | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +6.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC RACHELE · IU608R · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD +5.5dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| ARGUS · 234E · ONEY/OAONEAT2 | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +4.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| EVER FULL · 018W · EGLV/OAAWE4 | ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| KLEVEN · IV601 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| ROTTERDAM · 84W · ZIMU/ADHOC | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 14-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +4.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| APL ANTWERP · XRA2W · CMDU/INDAMEX2 | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 21-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE MINATO · 028W · ONEY/PEC3 | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 21-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| OOCL FRANCE · 068W · COSU/OALP1 | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC NAGOYA V · UF607 · MSCU/MUSWASA | ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 21 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC PASSION III · PH608 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 21 |
ERD -2.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| HYUNDAI SATURN · 051W · ONEY/PEC1 | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC RACHELE · IU608 · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD -0.5dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| NILEDUTCH LION · 6202 · HLCU/INDAMEX | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CISNES · 607W · HLCU/GTP16US4 | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 21-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 21 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM ANDROMEDA · TUHNN · CMDU/OAAWE3 | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK TAURUS · 609W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| NINGBO EXPRESS · 608E · HLCU/GTA2AL3 | ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ZIM AMBER · 12W · ZIMU/MEMERALD | ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +6.0dCY +6.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| EVER MODEL · 002W · EGLV/OAAUE | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 21 |
ERD +5.0dCY +4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| NORDAMELIA · RPKQN · CMDU/RTWNB | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 21 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| SINE A · USBKE · ARKU/TURKON | ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 24 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MAERSK SEMBAWANG · 606E · MAEU/GTA12AL6 | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ZIM MOUNT VINSON · 8W · ZIMU/MZCP | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 21 |
ERD +3.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| BELITA · INLPW · CMDU/CBX | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 21-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC ANTIGUA · MG605 · MSCU/MMEDGULF | ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 21 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC VITTORIA · U609 · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| KLEVEN · IV601A · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR BRASIL · 609S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SEASPAN LIMA · 609S · MAEU/SAE | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Houston · USHOU · 30 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC GIOVANNA VII · IV606R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +14.0dCY +15.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC GIOVANNA VII · IV606R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +14.0dCY +15.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| APL CALIFORNIA · 0VBLQE1MA · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +14.0dCY +14.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| APL CALIFORNIA · 0VBLQE1MA · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +14.0dCY +14.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| HUBERT SCHULTE · NH606R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +14.0dCY +14.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| HUBERT SCHULTE · NH606R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Feb 1 | CY Cut Feb 5-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +14.0dCY +14.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC JASPER VIII · GN607W · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +9.0dCY +12.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC JASPER VIII · GN607W · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +9.0dCY +12.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MAERSK HARTFORD · 608E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.1d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK HARTFORD · 608E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.1d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM LEGACY · 0PGMSW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM LEGACY · 0PGMSW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| HENRIKA SCHULTE · NH607R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +6.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| HENRIKA SCHULTE · NH607R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +6.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| GARDINER · 608S · MSCU/GOX | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +3.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| GARDINER · 608S · MSCU/GOX | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +3.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| OOCL TOKYO · 141W · OOLU/GME | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +3.0dCY -0.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| OOCL TOKYO · 141W · OOLU/GME | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +3.0dCY -0.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MAERSK SELETAR · 607E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK SELETAR · 607E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM DALILA · 0PGMUW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM DALILA · 0PGMUW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM SAMBHAR · 0GBF4S1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM SAMBHAR · 0GBF4S1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GARDINER · 609S · MSCU/GOX | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GARDINER · 609S · MSCU/GOX | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK LAVRAS · 608W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK LAVRAS · 608W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MARFRET GUYANE · 0YKCGS1MA · CMDU/YUKA | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MARFRET GUYANE · 0YKCGS1MA · CMDU/YUKA | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Oakland · USOAK · 16 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEORGE III · 093W · PHH/UNKN | ERD Jan 22 | CY Cut Feb 10-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +28.0dCY +15.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| EVER FORWARD · 1205-028W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +1.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| Cape Sounio · 607R · MSCU/CAX | ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 24 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| PRESIDENT REAGAN · 0DBNK · CMDU/EX1APL | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 24 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.6d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| PRESIDENT REAGAN · 0DBNKW1MA · CMDU/EX1APL | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 24 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.6d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK CANDOR · 608W · MAEU/708 | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.6d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM J. ADAMS · 1TUGH · CMDU/CJX | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +6.0dCY +3.6d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| PRESIDENT BUSH · 0DBNI · CMDU/EX1APL | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.6d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| WAN HAI A01 · 016W · WHLC/UNKN | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| WAN HAI A11 · 015W · WHLC/UNKN | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.5dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EVER FRANK · 1206-030W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MATE · 607S · SUDU/UNKN | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC TRIESTE · 607S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC TRIESTE · GO607S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM UNANIMITY · 0084 · ONEY/084W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM WONDERLAND · 029W · YMLU/UNKN | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Long Beach · USLGB · 14 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSCO PORTUGAL · 080 · OOLU/PCC1 | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 6-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +9.0dCY +13.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| HMM TURQUOISE · 0008 · ONEY/008W | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +7.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| HMM TURQUOISE · 0008W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +7.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| COSCO SHIPPING DENALI · 051 · COSU/PVCS | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD -3.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Mixed | High |
| CSCL AUTUMN · 070W · CHN/UNKN | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| CSCL SOUTH CHINA SEA · 080W · CHN/UNKN | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +6.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC TRIESTE · 607S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE | ERD Feb 4 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +5.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC TOPAZ · 603A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC TANZANIA · 608S · MSCU/SENTOSA | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CSCL SUMMER · 072W · CHN/UNKN | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| OOCL ROTTERDAM · 161 · OOLU/PSX | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.4d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Mixed | Elevated |
| AS PALINA · 609S · MAEU/U8E | ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| SEATTLE EXPRESS · 607 · HLCU/PANZ | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SM YANTIAN · 2601W · SMC/UNKN | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Los Angeles · USLAX · 21 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYK VIRGO · 0088 · ONEY/088W | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 4-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +14.0dCY +14.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| EVER MAGUS · 1439-005W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +10.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| HMM TURQUOISE · 0008 · ONEY/008W | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +7.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| NYK VEGA · 0FJN0W1MA · CMDU/FUJI | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 2 |
ERD +6.5dCY +6.4d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM MEXICO · 1TUGLW1MA · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +3.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| EVER LEADER · 1206W · CMDU/HBB | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| NYK NEBULA · 091E · ONEY/AL5 | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 24 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| CONTI CRYSTAL · 144W · ONEY/PS3 | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| EVER MAGIC · 1440-006W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD -2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM MELISANDE · 0TXMEW1MA · CMDU/LP1 | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM SWORDFISH · 0GVLXW1MA · CMDU/EXX | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COCHRANE · 605W · MAEU/712 | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CONTI CRYSTAL · 0144 · HDMU/UNKN | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CONTI CRYSTAL · 0144 · ONEY/144W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| DELAWARE EXPRESS · 608W · MAEU/707 | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GANGES · 016W · ZIMU/ZX2 | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GEORG MAERSK · 609W · MAEU/708 | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK EUNAPOLIS · 609W · MAEU/706 | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NYK REMUS · 082E · ONEY/AL5 | ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| PELICAN I · 010W · ZIMU/ZX2 | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| PRESIDENT REAGAN · 0DBNKW1PL · APL/EX1 | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Seattle · USSEA · 8 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMA CGM ARKANSAS · 0TNHO · CMDU/CPNW | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +8.0dCY +8.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC AGAMEMNON · 608R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD +3.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| CMA CGM YUKON · 0TNHQ · CMDU/CPNW | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| OOCL SEATTLE · 040W · OOLU/UNKN | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CAPE SOUNIO · 607R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| LAUTOKA CHIEF · 008W · WSL/UNKN | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| SM TIANJIN · 2601W · SMC/UNKN | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| WESTWOOD OLYMPIA · 136W · WWS/UNKN | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
New York · USNYC · 7 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMA CGM BRAZIL · 1TUHNN1 · CMDU/COLUMBUS | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.3d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM HOMERE · 610E/W · CMDU/CAGML | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM ALIAGA · 610E/W · CMDU/AMERXL | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CONTI CONTESSA · 023E/W · ONEY/ADHOC | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MARIANNE SCHULTE · 606E/W · CMDU/RTWPAN | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM ABU DHABI · 607E/W · CMDU/RTWPAN | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE CRANE · 034-2 · ONEY/EC3L | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Norfolk · USORF · 25 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSC INGRID · MZ607R · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +8.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MAERSK GARONNE · 605W · MAEU/801 | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK SELETAR · 607E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 27 |
ERD +0.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK SERANGOON · 607E · MAEU/AL6 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut Feb 12-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +5.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MAERSK GATESHEAD · 608E · MAEU/TEX | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 24 |
ERD +1.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC ROME · 602E · MSCU/DRAGON | ERD Feb 6 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +6.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC RACHELE · GU608E · MSCU/INDX | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +5.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC SHANGHAI V · NO607E · MSCU/EXTRA | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +5.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| COSCO SHIPPING ORCHID · 032W · COSU/LP1 | ERD Feb 8 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| APL ANTWERP · 0INLQE1 · CMDU/EIS | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| APL ANTWERP · 0XRA2W1 · CMDU/EIS | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +3.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM LAPIS · 0UB8KE1 · CMDU/AL8 | ERD Feb 7 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +3.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM ANDROMEDA · 1TUHJN1 · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| CMA CGM PALMYRE · 0XRA4W1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| DORTMUND EXPRESS · 608W · HLCU/US4 | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ONE CRANE · 034W · ONEY/EC3 | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| VIENNA EXPRESS · 608W · HLCU/US2 | ERD Feb 14 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ATLANTIC SAIL · ATS5926 · ACLU/ACL-A | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26408N · CCBZ/BAL | ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK MONTANA · 606W · MAEU/801 | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC LUCY · MZ605R · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NINGBO EXPRESS · 608E · HLCU/AL3 | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR BRASIL · 609S · MAEU/NAE | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| STEPHANIE C · 6203 · HLCU/TPI | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ZIM MOUNT EVEREST · 012W · ZIMU/ZCP | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Newark · USEWR · 12 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GREENLAND · 602A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC BREMEN · 608A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| SEASPAN SAIGON · 609S · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 25 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK SERANGOON · 607E · MAEU/812 | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 11-> ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 13 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| LOUIS MAERSK · 605X · MAEU/UNKN | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| HONG KONG EXPRESS · 609W · MAEU/716 | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK SHAMS · 607W · MAEU/711 | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC AUDREY · 603E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC MEXICO V · 608R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC SHANGHAI V · 607E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC TASMAN VI · 608E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 17 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MUKADDES KALKAVAN · 0USSQE1TK · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 18-> ERD Feb 13 | CY Cut Feb 18 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Tacoma · USTIW · 3 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAERSK LEBU · 608W · MAEU/WC4 | ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 13-> ERD Feb 9 | CY Cut Feb 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.7d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| HMM HOPE · 0059 · ONEY/059W | ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Feb 12 | CY Cut Feb 16 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM VANCOUVER · 0303 · ONEY/303W | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 23 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
6. Weekly Signal Flags
- CMDU/EX1APL: 2 of this carrier-service's 3 vessels this week classified High.
- CMDU/PEXIII: 2 of this carrier-service's 4 vessels this week classified High.
- EGLV/UNKN: 2 of this carrier-service's 4 vessels this week classified High.
- MAEU/MECL: 3 of this carrier-service's 5 vessels this week classified High.
7. Ports to Watch
Savannah (USSAV) warrants extra buffer this week. 67.6% of vessels classified High, 62.2% showed late-stage movement across 37 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Long Beach (USLGB) warrants extra buffer this week. 35.7% of vessels classified High, 78.6% showed late-stage movement across 14 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Norfolk (USORF) warrants extra buffer this week. 12.0% of vessels classified High, 36.0% showed late-stage movement across 25 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
8. Close
Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly, see the ladder below for how weekly detection feeds monthly diagnosis. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 1 March 2026. For monthly context, see the February 2026 VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.
Appendix A
Stability classification thresholds and late-stage flag definition carry forward each week from the Safe-to-Gate Weekly framework (v1.1). See the framework document for the full methodology reference.
Explore Related Intelligence
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Bill Hewitt,
Frey Commodities
Frey Commodities
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