THE LOADED BOX · SAFE-TO-GATE WEEKLY EDITION
Safe-to-Gate Weekly - Week of March 14, 2026
Vessel-level signals from the past seven days: where schedules moved, which ports warrant extra buffer, and what the week ahead likely holds.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly · 8-14 March 2026
Reader's narrative
Savannah ran the week. 39 vessels through the gateway. 76.9% classified High.
The largest single-voyage shift came from NYK VEGA 0085 (ONEY) at Los Angeles - ERD +23.5d and CY Cut +26.4d from the originally published window.
The cross-port pattern shows up in carrier-service clusters: CMDU/CBX recorded 2 of its 3 vessels High this week. MAEU/712 recorded 2 of 3. The instability is service-shaped, not just port-shaped.
Savannah, Tacoma, Seattle, and Newark are on the watch list. If the pattern holds another week, the ports carry into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate. the watch list is not a verdict - it is a flag that the next gate is being watched.
How to read the publication.
Section 3 (Port Summary) gives the network shape. Section 5 (Per-Port Vessel Tables) lists every vessel that departed - 212 rows total - with original-vs-actual CRW, shift magnitude, late-stage flag, and stability classification. The vessel tables are the unit of truth. Everything else is summary.
Sustained Churn - paired ERD and CY Cut activity persisting through the planning horizon - is the cross-month pattern these weeklies feed into. The mechanism is described in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly. The weekly tables show where it surfaced.
A noisy week is workload. A noisy week inside the planning horizon is failure.
Safe-to-Gate Weekly
Sunday 8 March 2026 through Saturday 14 March 2026
Published: Monday 16 March 2026 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2026-03-08/
1. Weekly Note
This week covers vessel-voyages that departed U.S. export gateways between Sunday 8 March 2026 and Saturday 14 March 2026. Savannah showed the highest share of High classification at 76.9%. Los Angeles held the largest single-voyage shift with NYK VEGA 0085 at ERD +23.5d and CY Cut +26.4d. Full vessel tables below.
2. Signal, Not Verdict
Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.
3. Port Summary
| Port | Vessels this week | % High | % Late-stage | Dominant direction | Port stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USSAV Savannah | 39 | 76.9% | 76.9% | Mixed | High |
| USTIW Tacoma | 7 | 57.1% | 28.6% | Mixed | High |
| USSEA Seattle | 8 | 50.0% | 37.5% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USLAX Los Angeles | 20 | 45.0% | 55.0% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USEWR Newark | 25 | 32.0% | 60.0% | Mixed | High |
| USORF Norfolk | 38 | 28.9% | 47.4% | Mixed | High |
| USLGB Long Beach | 11 | 27.3% | 18.2% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USNYC New York | 9 | 22.2% | 33.3% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USHOU Houston | 32 | 12.5% | 25.0% | Mixed | Elevated |
| USOAK Oakland | 23 | 4.3% | 34.8% | Mixed | Elevated |
Covered ports: 10 U.S. export gateways. Charleston (USCHS) had zero departures in the week window and is omitted per framework Section 6.
4. Quick Scan Layer
- Savannah: 76.9% late-stage movement across 39 vessels.
- Tacoma: 57.1% of vessels classified High across 7 total.
- Seattle: 50.0% of vessels classified High across 8 total.
- Los Angeles: 55.0% late-stage movement across 20 vessels.
- Newark: 60.0% late-stage movement across 25 vessels.
5. Per-Port Vessel Tables
Savannah · USSAV · 39 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONE MANEUVER · 080E · ONEY/TA1AL6 | ERD Feb 10 | CY Cut Feb 16-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +22.0dCY +22.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| CAUTIN · 2516W · HLCU/AA7 | ERD Feb 11 | CY Cut Feb 17-> ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +15.0dCY +15.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| SAN FRANCISCO BRIDGE · 0084W · ONEY/WIN | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 7 |
ERD +13.0dCY +12.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| EMMA A · USBME · ARKU/TURKON | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 28-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 12 |
ERD +11.0dCY +12.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| ONE HAWK · 034W · ONEY/PEC3 | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 7 |
ERD +12.0dCY +11.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC UBERTY VIII · GE608 · MSCU/ADHOC | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut Feb 21-> ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +11.0dCY +11.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| OOCL TOKYO · 142E · OOLU/TA1AL6 | ERD Mar 7 | CY Cut Mar 13-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 3 |
ERD -10.0dCY -10.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM VERDI · INLSE · CMDU/INDAMEX2 | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +9.0dCY +9.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| ZIM VIRGINIA · 155E · ZIMU/ZCA | ERD Feb 21 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 7 |
ERD +9.0dCY +8.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| AMERICA · MZ609 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 28-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 7 |
ERD +6.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| SEASPAN EMISSARY · 609E · HLCU/GTEX | ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 7 | CY Cut Mar 12 |
ERD +7.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC BREMEN · UA609 · MSCU/MSCESA1 | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 28-> ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +5.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC YOKOHAMA · IU610 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 28-> ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +5.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC ANCHORAGE · NO609 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 7-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 12 |
ERD +4.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| ZIM MOUNT OLYMPUS · 9W · ZIMU/MZCP | ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 3 |
ERD +5.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC NERISSA V · NO609 · MSCU/MUSWASA | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 7-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MSC TAVVISHI VI · IU610 · MSCU/INDUS | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 7 |
ERD -4.0dCY -4.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| ZIM MOUNT ELBRUS · 9W · ZIMU/MZCP | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 7-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +3.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| APL OREGON · INLUE · CMDU/INDAMEX2 | ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 7 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM T. JEFFERSON · TUHRN · CMDU/OAAWE3 | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER MASS · 007W · EGLV/OAAUE | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 3 |
ERD -2.0dCY -2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC TIANJIN · MZ610 · MSCU/MMEDGULF | ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 7 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CCNI ARAUCO · 610W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 3-> ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| KIEL EXPRESS · 610E · HLCU/GTA2AL3 | ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 7 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC JULIANA III · PH610 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC TASMAN VI · NO608 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 | ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Feb 21 | CY Cut Feb 27 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM BLUE · RPLBS · CMDU/RTWSB | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 7-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 7 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK CHICAGO · 610E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| OOCL GUANGZHOU · 174E · OOLU/EMA | ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| SEROJA LIMA · 611W · MAEU/GTP11US1 | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER FOCUS · 027W · EGLV/OAAWE4 | ERD Feb 21 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 3 |
ERD +4.0dCY +4.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| HONG KONG EXPRESS · 609W · HLCU/GTP16US4 | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 7-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 7 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC LORENA · UF609 · MSCU/MUSWASA | ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 7 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| COSCO SHIPPING PANAMA · 002W · COSU/OALP2 | ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MARGARETE SCHULTE · 610S · MAEU/SAE | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 12-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ESTHI · IV604 · MSCU/INDUS2 | ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC WEST V · MZ611 · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 12-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NORDPACIFIC · RPKWN · CMDU/RTWNB | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 7-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 7 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| POLAR COSTA RICA · 610S · MAEU/NAE ACX | ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Tacoma · USTIW · 7 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKAGEN MAERSK · 614W · MAEU/WC4 | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 23 | CY Cut Mar 26 |
ERD +21.0dCY +20.3d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MAERSK SARNIA · 612W · MAEU/WC4 | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 10 | CY Cut Mar 15 |
ERD +8.0dCY +9.3d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| EVER ELITE · 0150-181W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +4.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| SANTA BARBARA · 611W · MAEU/WC4 | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +1.0dCY -0.7d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| ONE PREMIUM · 0089 · ONEY/089W | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +4.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| HMM DRIVE · 0057 · ONEY/057W | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 8-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 8 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE PREMIUM · 089 · ONEY/PN1 | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Seattle · USSEA · 8 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPE AKRITAS · UK610R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 12 | CY Cut Mar 18-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD -9.0dCY -9.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM POINTE DU PITON · 0TNHU · CMDU/CPNW | ERD Mar 9 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 10 | CY Cut Mar 13 |
ERD +1.0dCY +8.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CAPE AKRITAS · 610R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD -1.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| SM MUMBAI · 2601W · SMC/UNKN | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| CAPE AKRITAS · 611R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ESL SEATTLE · 2608W · ESL/UNKN | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OOCL OAKLAND · 139W · OOLU/UNKN | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| XIN DAN DONG · 560W · CHN/UNKN | ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 11-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Los Angeles · USLAX · 20 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYK VEGA · 0085 · ONEY/085W | ERD Feb 2 | CY Cut Feb 4-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 2 |
ERD +23.5dCY +26.4d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| PRESIDENT CARTER · 0DBNMW1PL · APL/EX1 | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +3.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| EMERALD TOWER · 002W · ONEY/PS3 | ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 3 |
ERD +2.0dCY +4.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM A. LINCOLN · 1TUH5W1MA · CMDU/CJX | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD -1.0dCY -3.5d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| HUDSON EXPRESS · 610W · MAEU/707 | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Mar 2 |
ERD -3.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM LITANI · 0TXMIW1MA · CMDU/PEARL | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| EVER LASTING · 1208W · CMDU/HBB | ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 4-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| NYK RIGEL · 081E · ONEY/AL5 | ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 11-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD -1.0dCY -0.5d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| COLOMBO EXPRESS · 607W · MAEU/712 | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| EVER MAGIC · 1441-006W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CMA CGM CALLISTO · 1TUGXW1MA · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ONE HANGZHOU BAY · 0FJN2W1MA · CMDU/FUJI | ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.4d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EMERALD TOWER · 0002 · ONEY/002W | ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER MEMO · 1442-010W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GJERTRUD MAERSK · 610W · MAEU/706 | ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| GUSTAV MAERSK · 611W · MAEU/708 | ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM AQUAMARINE · 0010 · ONEY/010W | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NYK VEGA · · HDMU/FP1 | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| WAN HAI A05 · 0014 · ONEY/W014 | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| YM UPSURGENCE · 0077 · ONEY/077W | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 19-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 19 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Newark · USEWR · 25 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSL NICOLETTA · 609E · MAEU/812 | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +5.0dCY +7.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | High |
| MAERSK IDAHO · 610E · MAEU/810 | ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 3-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +4.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| BSG BAHAMAS · 610S · MAEU/U7J | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 3-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +3.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | High |
| ONE MAXIM · 077W · ONEY/UNKN | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| OSAKA EXPRESS · 610W · MAEU/712 | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 3 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| MAERSK MEMPHIS · 608E · MAEU/812 | ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut Feb 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK TAURUS · 609W · MAEU/711 | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MSC ILLINOIS VII · 610W · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CONTI MAKALU · 605A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY -3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| SEASPAN EMISSARY · 609E · MAEU/810 | ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 23-> ERD Feb 18 | CY Cut Feb 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ATLANTIC SEA · 6526 · ACLU/UNKN | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK FREDERICIA · 611E · MAEU/803 | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +2.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| ATLANTIC SKY · 6626 · ACLU/UNKN | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 3-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC ODESSA V · 6011A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 11-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC UTMOST VIII · 610E · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 11-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| NAVIOS UNISON · 611W · MAEU/712 | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| SOUTHAMPTON EXPRESS · 611W · MAEU/716 | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| EMMA A · 0USBME1TK · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 24-> ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 24 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC DAMLA · 610A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ODESSA V · 611A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 12-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ORIANE · 610R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC ORNELLA · 612A · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC PRELUDE V · 611R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC SUAPE VII · 609W · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Feb 26 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| TSINGTAO EXPRESS · 2517W · HLCU/UNKN | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Norfolk · USORF · 38 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSCO SHANGHAI · 015E · COSU/AMERIGO | ERD Feb 15 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +15.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| GSL NICOLETTA · 609E · MAEU/AL6 | ERD Feb 22 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +7.0dCY +11.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| EMMA A · 0USBME1TK · TRKU/TURKON-USA | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +10.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | High |
| SFL MAUI · 610E · MAEU/TA3 | ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +3.0dCY +8.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| AMERICA · MZ609R · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +5.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM T. JEFFERSON · 1TUHRN1 · CMDU/LP3 | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD -4.0dCY -1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM PASSION · 0INLWE1 · CMDU/EIS | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 12 |
ERD -2.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Mixed | High |
| CMA CGM ELBE · 0XRA6W1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 4-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAERSK GARONNE · 609E · MAEU/801 | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 3-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +2.0dCY +2.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CMA CGM NILE · 0XRA8W1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 12 |
ERD -1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Mixed | High |
| MSC DAMLA · UA610A · MSCU/MD | ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| OOCL KOREA · 056W · COSU/LP1 | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +7.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| SEASPAN EMISSARY · 609E · HLCU/TEX | ERD Feb 20 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +7.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC JOSSELINE · FD604E · MSCU/DRAGON | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +5.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| OOCL CHONGQING · 065E · OOLU/TA2 | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +5.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC ORIANE · MZ610R · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC MEXICO V · MZ608R · MSCU/EMUSA | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ONE CONTINUITY · 076W · ONEY/EC1 | ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +1.0dCY +3.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| SUAPE EXPRESS · 609E · HLCU/AL3 | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +3.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| EVER MATCH · 1342W · EGLV/LP2 | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC YORK VII · IU609R · MSCU/INDX | ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| POLAR MEXICO · 611S · MAEU/NAE | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC ANCHORAGE · NO609E · MSCU/NEUSEC2 | ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ATLANTIC SKY · ATK6626 · ACLU/ACL-A | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM PHOENIX · 0LBLOE1 · CMDU/TA2 | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD -2.0dCY +2.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Mixed | Moderate |
| MSC INIYA V · IU610R · MSCU/INDX | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| WAN HAI A10 · W012 · WHLC/AA7 | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 22 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ANTWERPEN EXPRESS · 610W · HLCU/US4 | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM NILE · 0INLWE1 · CMDU/EIS | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 12-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM PASSION · 0XRA8W1 · CMDU/CBX | ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 12-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 12 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26410N · COLUMBIA COASTAL/BARGE | ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Feb 28 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26411N · CCBZ/BAL | ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26411N · COLUMBIA COASTAL/BARGE | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| KIEL EXPRESS · 610E · HLCU/AL3 | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK FREDERICIA · 608W · MAEU/TA3 | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK MONTANA · 610E · MAEU/801 | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK TENNESSEE · 608W · MAEU/801 | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OSAKA EXPRESS · 610W · HLCU/US2 | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Long Beach · USLGB · 11 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OOCL POLAND · 057 · OOLU/PCC1 | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +11.0dCY +14.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| HMM AQUAMARINE · 0010 · ONEY/011E | ERD Feb 16 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +11.0dCY +13.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MAERSK OLYMPIC · 611S · MAEU/U8E | ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 11-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| COSCO SHIPPING PEONY · 036W · COSU/UNKN | ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| COSCO THAILAND · 113W · COSU/UNKN | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +4.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC MUNDRA VIII · 609S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE | ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 3-> ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC SOLA · 610S · MSCU/SENTOSA | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 3-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 3 |
ERD -2.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| HMM AQUAMARINE · 0010W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| LONG BEACH EXPRESS · 609 · HLCU/PANZ | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| NPDL CALIFORNIA · 2605S · NPD/UNKN | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| OOCL WASHINGTON · 095W · OOLU/UNKN | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
New York · USNYC · 9 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONE EAGLE · 037-2 · ONEY/EC3L | ERD Mar 15 | CY Cut Mar 19-> ERD Mar 15 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY -8.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | High |
| CMA CGM ENDURANCE · 609E/W · CMDU/AMRGO | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD -1.0dCY -0.7d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| MAGDALENA SCHULTE · 611E/W · CMDU/RTWPAN | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +3.3d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM SURABAYA · 611E/W · CMDU/CAGML | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.7d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| CMA CGM PASSION · 610E/W · CMDU/INDAMEX | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CMA CGM PHOENIX · 0LBLOE1 · CMDU/LIBERTY BRIDGE | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE CONTINUITY · 076E/W · ONEY/ADHOC | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE EAGLE · 037-1 · ONEY/EC3 Single call (discharge and load) | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| ONE MINATO · 028-2 · ONEY/EC3L | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 4-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Houston · USHOU · 32 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORNEILLE · 011W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +8.0dCY +10.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| CORNEILLE · 011W · ONEY/EC4 | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +8.0dCY +10.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| CORNELIA MAERSK · 609E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 3-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| CORNELIA MAERSK · 609E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 3-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | High |
| GREENLAND · IV609R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +6.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| GREENLAND · IV609R · MSCU/INDUSA | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +6.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC EXPRESS III · LE611A · MSCU/GOX | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 27 |
ERD -6.0dCY -7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC EXPRESS III · LE611A · MSCU/GOX | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 27 |
ERD -6.0dCY -7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| MSC BARCELONA · MG609E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 3 |
ERD +5.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| MSC BARCELONA · MG609E · MSCU/MEDGULF | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 3 |
ERD +5.0dCY +6.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| ANTWERP · GN610W · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +2.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| ANTWERP · GN610W · MSCU/LONESTAR | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +2.0dCY +5.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK CHICAGO · MAERSK CHICAGO · MAEU/MECL | ERD Mar 8 | CY Cut Mar 13-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD -5.0dCY -3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MAERSK CHICAGO · MAERSK CHICAGO · MAEU/MECL | ERD Mar 8 | CY Cut Mar 13-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD -5.0dCY -3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC DOUALA VIII · NH610R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +2.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| MSC DOUALA VIII · NH610R · MSCU/MEX GULF | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +2.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM AMAZON · 0PGMYW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM AMAZON · 0PGMYW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM LAMARTINE · 0VBLYE1MA · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM LAMARTINE · 0VBLYE1MA · CMDU/VICTORY | ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| AIAS · 0YKCKS1MA · CMDU/YUKA | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| AIAS · 0YKCKS1MA · CMDU/YUKA | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CARDIFF · 0GBF8S1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| CARDIFF · 0GBF8S1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX | ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 1 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK CHICAGO · 610E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK CHICAGO · 610E · MAEU/MECL | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK NANSHA · 611S · MAEU/GOX | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK NANSHA · 611S · MAEU/GOX | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK SANTANA · 610W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MAERSK SANTANA · 610W · MAEU/TP15 | ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 2 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC TAVVISHI VI · IV610R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 4-> ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC TAVVISHI VI · IV610R · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 4-> ERD Feb 26 | CY Cut Mar 4 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
Oakland · USOAK · 23 vessels this week
| Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service | CRW (Original -> Actual) | Shift | Late? | Outcome | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEORGE III · 094W · PHH/UNKN | ERD Feb 19 | CY Cut Feb 25-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +14.0dCY +14.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | High |
| MGNA · 1440-003W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Feb 23 | CY Cut Feb 26-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +7.0dCY +7.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| PRESIDENT CARTER · 0DBNM · CMDU/EX1APL | ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +7.0dCY +6.6d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| PRESIDENT CARTER · 0DBNMW1MA · CMDU/EX1APL | ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Mar 2-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +7.0dCY +6.6d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| CMA CGM ARGENTINA · 1TUGP · CMDU/CJX | ERD Feb 27 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +3.0dCY +5.6d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Late expansion | Elevated |
| WAN HAI A05 · 014W · WHL/UNKN | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +2.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| NPDL CALIFORNIA · 2605S · NPD/UNKN | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| YM WISDOM · 025W · YMLU/UNKN | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 4 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
Yes (inside 72h) | Compressed | Elevated |
| GUSTAV MAERSK · 611W · MAEU/708 | ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 6 | CY Cut Mar 11 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.6d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| PRESIDENT JQ ADAMS · 0DBNO · CMDU/EX1APL | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY -0.4d |
Yes (inside 24h) | Moderate drift | Elevated |
| MSC Gayane · 608R · MSCU/CAX | ERD Feb 24 | CY Cut Feb 27-> ERD Feb 25 | CY Cut Mar 2 |
ERD +1.0dCY +3.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| CMA CGM CALLISTO · 1TUGT · CMDU/CJX | ERD Mar 11 | CY Cut Mar 13-> ERD Mar 10 | CY Cut Mar 13 |
ERD -1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| EVER MAGNA · 1440-003W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +1.0dCY +1.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| NPDL CALIFORNIA · 2607S · NPD/UNKN | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut n/a-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut n/a |
ERD +1.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Moderate drift | Moderate |
| ANL WARRNAMBOOL · 0Y1LD · ANL/UNKN | ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9-> ERD Mar 3 | CY Cut Mar 9 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER FINE · 1208-024W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER FINE · 1208-025W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER LADEN · 1208-073W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| EVER LASTING · 1208-091W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 10-> ERD Mar 5 | CY Cut Mar 10 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| HMM TOPAZ · 010W · HDM/UNKN | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 6 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MGNA · 1441-003W · EGLV/UNKN | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC LORENZA · 609S · MSCU/SENTOSA | ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5-> ERD Mar 2 | CY Cut Mar 5 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
| MSC MUNDRA VIII · GO609S · MSCU/UNKN | ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 20-> ERD Feb 17 | CY Cut Feb 20 |
ERD +0.0dCY +0.0d |
No (outside 72h) | Stable | Stable |
Every vessel measured, not just the outliers. Original vs actual CRW shown for each. Observed columns: vessel identity, Original and Actual CRW, shifts, late-stage flag. Derived: Outcome and Stability label. See Appendix A.
6. Weekly Signal Flags
- CMDU/CBX: 2 of this carrier-service's 3 vessels this week classified High.
- MAEU/712: 2 of this carrier-service's 3 vessels this week classified High.
- MAEU/WC4: 3 of this carrier-service's 3 vessels this week classified High.
7. Ports to Watch
Savannah (USSAV) warrants extra buffer this week. 76.9% of vessels classified High, 76.9% showed late-stage movement across 39 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Tacoma (USTIW) warrants extra buffer this week. 57.1% of vessels classified High, 28.6% showed late-stage movement across 7 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Seattle (USSEA) warrants extra buffer this week. 50.0% of vessels classified High, 37.5% showed late-stage movement across 8 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
Newark (USEWR) warrants extra buffer this week. 32.0% of vessels classified High, 60.0% showed late-stage movement across 25 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.
8. Close
Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly, see the ladder below for how weekly detection feeds monthly diagnosis. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 15 March 2026. For monthly context, see the March 2026 VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.
Appendix A
Stability classification thresholds and late-stage flag definition carry forward each week from the Safe-to-Gate Weekly framework (v1.1). See the framework document for the full methodology reference.
Explore Related Intelligence
MONTHLY · DIAGNOSIS
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MONTHLY · EVIDENCEVSSI Monthly
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Terminal-level structural measurement across the quarter.
Bill Hewitt,
Frey Commodities
Frey Commodities
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