THE LOADED BOX · SAFE-TO-GATE WEEKLY EDITION

Safe-to-Gate Weekly - Week of May 16, 2026

Vessel-level signals from the past seven days: where schedules moved, which ports warrant extra buffer, and what the week ahead likely holds.

Published May 18, 2026 · Safe-to-Gate Weekly v1.1

Safe-to-Gate Weekly

Sunday 10 May 2026 through Saturday 16 May 2026

Published: Monday 18 May 2026 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2026-05-10/ Framework TradeLanes Safe-to-Gate Weekly v1.1 · Data baseline 2026-07-08 (100%-coverage mart) · Status Operator-facing


1. Weekly Note

Between Sunday 10 May 2026 and Saturday 16 May 2026, 179 vessel-voyages left U.S. export gateways. Most held their shape through the week; a share did not. Savannah ran the least settled - 68.6% of its vessels sat in the High band, and 60.0% were still moving inside the late-stage window. The single widest move was PRESIDENT REAGAN 0DBOEW1MA at Los Angeles: ERD +0.0d and CY Cut +27.0d, the whole cargo receiving window shifting as a unit. Every vessel that departed is listed below with its observed ERD and CY Cut shift.


2. Signal, Not Verdict

Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.


3. Port Summary

Port Vessels this week % High % Late-stage Dominant direction Port stability
USSAV Savannah 35 68.6% 60.0% Mixed High
USLGB Long Beach 11 36.4% 45.5% Late-biased High
USHOU Houston 32 31.2% 50.0% Mixed High
USNYC New York 8 25.0% 25.0% Mixed Elevated
USORF Norfolk 33 24.2% 36.4% Mixed Elevated
USSEA Seattle 5 20.0% 20.0% Late-biased Elevated
USLAX Los Angeles 18 16.7% 27.8% Mixed Elevated
USOAK Oakland 14 14.3% 35.7% Mixed Moderate
USEWR Newark 20 5.0% 10.0% Mixed Stable
USTIW Tacoma 3 0.0% 0.0% Mixed Moderate

Covered ports: 10 U.S. export gateways. Ports with zero departures in the week window are omitted per framework Section 6.


4. Quick Scan Layer

  • Savannah: 60.0% late-stage movement across 35 vessels.
  • Houston: 50.0% late-stage movement across 32 vessels.
  • Long Beach: 45.5% late-stage movement across 11 vessels.
  • Norfolk: 36.4% late-stage movement across 33 vessels.
  • Oakland: 35.7% late-stage movement across 14 vessels.

5. Per-Port Vessel Tables

Savannah · USSAV · 35 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
SEABOARD GEMINI · 00053 · SMLU/SMJS ERD Apr 21 | CY Cut Apr 28
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 12
ERD +14.0d
CY +14.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion High
MSC MIRELLA R · FE618 · MSCU/EMUSA ERD Apr 28 | CY Cut May 4
-> ERD May 8 | CY Cut May 14
ERD +10.0d
CY +10.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion High
ZIM CHINA · 51E · ZIMU/ZCA ERD Apr 22 | CY Cut Apr 28
-> ERD May 2 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +10.0d
CY +10.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion High
HMM AMETHYST · 010W · HDMU/PEC2 ERD Apr 23 | CY Cut Apr 29
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +8.0d
CY +8.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion High
MAERSK SENANG · 617E · MAEU/MECL ERD Apr 25 | CY Cut May 1
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 9
ERD +8.0d
CY +8.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Late expansion High
NEVZAT KALKAVAN · USC8E · TRKU/TURKON ERD May 2 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 10 | CY Cut May 15
ERD +8.0d
CY +7.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion High
YM TRUST · 104W · YMLU/PEC1 ERD Apr 26 | CY Cut May 2
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 9
ERD +8.0d
CY +7.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Late expansion High
MIEKE SCHULTE · RPLSS · CMDU/RTWSB ERD Apr 26 | CY Cut May 2
-> ERD May 2 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +6.0d
CY +6.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion High
ZIM MOUNT FUJI · 10W · ZIMU/MZCP ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 13
ERD +6.0d
CY +6.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Late expansion High
CMA CGM J. ADAMS · TUINN · CMDU/OAAWE3 ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 13
-> ERD May 2 | CY Cut May 8
ERD -5.0d
CY -5.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
AMERICA · MZ618 · MSCU/AMERICA ERD May 2 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 13
ERD +5.0d
CY +5.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion Elevated
MSC KRYSTAL · IV612 · MSCU/INDUS ERD Apr 27 | CY Cut May 2
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +4.0d
CY +5.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion Elevated
EVER MERCY · 006W · EGLV/OAAUE ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 6
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 9
ERD +4.0d
CY +3.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion High
EVER FOND · 022W · EGLV/OAAWE4 ERD May 2 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +3.0d
CY +3.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Late expansion High
ONE GRUS · 030W · ONEY/PEC3 ERD Apr 28 | CY Cut May 4
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +3.0d
CY +3.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Late expansion High
OOCL FRANCE · 069W · COSU/OALP1 ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 5
-> ERD May 2 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +3.0d
CY +3.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion High
WAN HAI A15 · W008 · WHLC/AA7 ERD Apr 26 | CY Cut May 2
-> ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 5
ERD +3.0d
CY +3.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion Moderate
MAERSK CHILKA · 618E · MAEU/GTA12AL6 ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 12
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 9
ERD -2.0d
CY -3.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MAERSK DENVER · 618E · MAEU/MECL ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 9
ERD +3.0d
CY +2.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MSC FLORENTINA · NO617 · MSCU/MNEUSEC2 ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 9
ERD +2.0d
CY +2.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
OOCL KAPOK · 003W · OOLU/OALP2 ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 9
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +2.0d
CY +2.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
CMA CGM TANCREDI · XRAOW · CMDU/CBX ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 9
ERD -1.0d
CY -2.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift High
MADRID EXPRESS · 618W · HLCU/GTP16US4 ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 9
ERD -1.0d
CY -2.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
MSC JULIANA III · PH619 · MSCU/PHILLYEXP ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 9
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +1.0d
CY +2.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MAERSK SHAMS · 620W · MAEU/GTP11US1 ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 13
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 12
ERD -1.0d
CY -1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MSC NAHARA · FE619 · MSCU/MEAGLE ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 13
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 12
ERD -1.0d
CY -1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
ZIM OPAL · 10W · ZIMU/MEMERALD ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 9
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 9
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift High
MSC SHANELLE V · MZ619 · MSCU/EMUSA ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 13
-> ERD May 8 | CY Cut May 14
ERD +1.0d
CY +1.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MSC SHANGHAI V · UF618 · MSCU/MUSWASA ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 9
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 9
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
AL SAFAT · 619E · HLCU/GTA2AL3 ERD May 2 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 2 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift High
ALTAMIRA EXPRESS · 619E · HLCU/GTEX ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 12
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 12
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift High
MSC BASEL V · UA618 · MSCU/MSCESA1 ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 9
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 9
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift High
OOCL TOKYO · 143E · OOLU/TA1AL6 ERD May 8 | CY Cut May 14
-> ERD May 8 | CY Cut May 14
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MAERSK NANSHA · 620S · MAEU/SAE ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 14
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 14
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
POLAR MEXICO · 620S · MAEU/NAE ACX ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 14
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 14
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Long Beach · USLGB · 11 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
OOCL SINGAPORE · 065 · OOLU/PCC1 ERD Apr 27 | CY Cut May 1
-> ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 5
ERD +2.0d
CY +4.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift High
COSCO AFRICA · 101W · COSU/ ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +2.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
CSCL INDIAN OCEAN · 076 · COSU/PVCS ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 6
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +0.0d
CY +2.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MSC ELISABETTA · 617R · MSCU/CALIFORNIA EXPRESS ERD Apr 28 | CY Cut May 4
-> ERD Apr 28 | CY Cut May 6
ERD +0.0d
CY +2.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
MSC LORENZA · 620S · MSCU/SENTOSA ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 4
-> ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 6
ERD +0.0d
CY +1.7d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MSC GABRIELLA · 614A · MSCU/CALIFORNIA EXPRESS ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 13
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 14
ERD +0.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
COSCO SHIPPING PEONY · 037W · COSU/ ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MAERSK GLACIER · 620S · MAEU/U8E ERD May 8 | CY Cut May 13
-> ERD May 8 | CY Cut May 13
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MATE · 618 · MAEU/PANZ ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC HORTENSE · 618R · MSCU/CALIFORNIA EXPRESS ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
YM UNIFORMITY · 0083 · ONEY/083W ERD Apr 2 | CY Cut Apr 7
-> ERD Apr 2 | CY Cut Apr 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Houston · USHOU · 32 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
MSC DORADO VIII · IV619R · MSCU/INDUSA ERD Apr 26 | CY Cut May 1
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +8.0d
CY +10.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion High
MSC DORADO VIII · IV619R · MSCU/INDUSA ERD Apr 26 | CY Cut May 1
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +8.0d
CY +10.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion High
ROTTERDAM · 85W · MSCU/LONESTAR ERD Apr 27 | CY Cut May 1
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +8.0d
CY +7.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Compressed High
ROTTERDAM · 85W · MSCU/LONESTAR ERD Apr 27 | CY Cut May 1
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +8.0d
CY +7.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Compressed High
EVER SALUTE · 127W · ONEY/EC4 ERD Apr 26 | CY Cut May 1
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +7.0d
CY +7.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Late expansion High
EVER SALUTE · 127W · ONEY/EC4 ERD Apr 26 | CY Cut May 1
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +7.0d
CY +7.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Late expansion High
MSC ANSHIKA VI · NH618R · MSCU/MEX GULF ERD Apr 26 | CY Cut Apr 30
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +4.0d
CY +7.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion Elevated
MSC ANSHIKA VI · NH618R · MSCU/MEX GULF ERD Apr 26 | CY Cut Apr 30
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +4.0d
CY +7.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion Elevated
MSC BARCELONA · MG618E · MSCU/MEDGULF ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 4
ERD -2.0d
CY -7.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MSC BARCELONA · MG618E · MSCU/MEDGULF ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 4
ERD -2.0d
CY -7.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MSC DAMLA · 619S · MSCU/SCS ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 8
ERD -1.0d
CY -3.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MSC DAMLA · 619S · MSCU/SCS ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 8
ERD -1.0d
CY -3.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
EM CORFU · 620S · MSCU/GOX ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 13
-> ERD May 10 | CY Cut May 13
ERD +3.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
EM CORFU · 620S · MSCU/GOX ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 13
-> ERD May 10 | CY Cut May 13
ERD +3.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
CMA CGM LAMARTINE · OVBMDW1MA · CMDU/VICTORY ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 5
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.2d
CY +2.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
CMA CGM LAMARTINE · OVBMDW1MA · CMDU/VICTORY ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 5
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.2d
CY +2.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MSC EXPRESS III · LE618A · MSCU/GOX ERD Apr 23 | CY Cut Apr 29
-> ERD Apr 23 | CY Cut Apr 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MSC EXPRESS III · LE618A · MSCU/GOX ERD Apr 23 | CY Cut Apr 29
-> ERD Apr 23 | CY Cut Apr 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
COSCO THAILAND · 114W · COSU/GME ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 6
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
COSCO THAILAND · 114W · COSU/GME ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 6
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
MAERSK IOWA · 620E · MAEU/AL2 ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MAERSK IOWA · 620E · MAEU/AL2 ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MAERSK LAVRAS · 620W · MAEU/TP15 ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 11
ERD -1.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
MAERSK LAVRAS · 620W · MAEU/TP15 ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 11
ERD -1.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
AIAS · 0YKD0S1MA · CMDU/YUKA ERD Apr 28 | CY Cut May 4
-> ERD Apr 28 | CY Cut May 4
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
AIAS · 0YKD0S1MA · CMDU/YUKA ERD Apr 28 | CY Cut May 4
-> ERD Apr 28 | CY Cut May 4
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
APL NEW JERSEY · 0GBFOS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
APL NEW JERSEY · 0GBFOS1MA · MAEU/BRAZEX ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
CMA CGM PLATON · 0YKD2S1MA · CMDU/YUKA ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
CMA CGM PLATON · 0YKD2S1MA · CMDU/YUKA ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
CMA CGM RHONE · OPGNGW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
CMA CGM RHONE · OPGNGW1MA · CMDU/PEXIII ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

New York · USNYC · 8 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
CMA CGM CONGO · 619E/W · CMDU/INDAMEX ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 4
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 10
ERD +1.0d
CY +6.3d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
CMA CGM LOUGA · 620E/W · CMDU/RTWPAN ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 14
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 12
ERD -1.0d
CY -1.7d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
CMA CGM SURABAYA · 620E/W · CMDU/CAGML ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY -0.7d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
CMA CGM MEXICO · 1TUIVN1 · CMDU/COLUMBUS ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 10
ERD +0.0d
CY -0.5d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
CMA CGM BEIRA · 619E/W · CMDU/AMERXL ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.3d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC Mexico V · IU618R · MSCU/INDUS EXPRESS ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
Cosco Shipping Orchid · 033W · COSU/ ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
ONE COLUMBA · 526 · ONEY/EC2 ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 5
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 5
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Norfolk · USORF · 33 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
AMSTERDAM EXPRESS · 620E · HLCU/TEX ERD May 17 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 8 | CY Cut n/a
ERD -9.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift High
MSC VANCOUVER · UA618A · MSCU/MD ERD Apr 25 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +8.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift High
OOCL TOKYO · 143E · OOLU/AMERIGO ERD Apr 26 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +8.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift High
MSC FATMA · FD613E · MSCU/DRAGON ERD Apr 24 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +7.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
NEVZAT KALKAVAN · 0USC8E1TK · TRKU/TURKON-USA ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +7.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
CMA CGM CONGO · 0INU3E1 · CMDU/EIS ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 13
ERD +5.0d
CY +5.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion Elevated
ONE SATISFACTION · 002E · ONEY/TA2 ERD Apr 27 | CY Cut May 4
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +4.0d
CY +4.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion High
MSC MIRELLA R · MZ619R · MSCU/EMUSA ERD May 5 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut n/a
ERD -4.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
MSC ORIANE · MZ615A · MSCU/EMUSA ERD May 4 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 8 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +4.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
MSC SOFIA CELESTE · IV613A · MSCU/IND ERD Apr 25 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +4.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
MSC STACEY · FD616E · MSCU/DRAGON ERD May 3 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +4.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
WAN HAI A18 · W005 · WHLC/AA7 ERD Apr 27 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +4.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
MH PEGASUS · 0XRAQW1 · CMDU/CBX ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 14
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
ERD -1.0d
CY -3.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
TAURUS · 1351W · EGLV/LP2 ERD May 1 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +3.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
CMA CGM MEXICO · 1TUIVN1 · CMDU/LP3 ERD May 9 | CY Cut May 15
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 14
ERD -2.0d
CY -1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
ZIM MOUNT DENALI · 013W · ZIMU/ZCP ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 2 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +2.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
PL GERMANY · 620E · MAEU/TA3 ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 13
ERD +1.0d
CY +2.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
ATLANTIC STAR · AST7026 · ACLU/ACL-A ERD May 3 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +2.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
HMM AMETHYST · 010W · HDMU/EC2 ERD May 8 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut n/a
ERD -2.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MAERSK TENNESSEE · 619E · MAEU/801 ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +1.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MSC KRYSTAL · IU619R · MSCU/INDX ERD May 4 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26420N · CCBZ/BAL ERD May 8 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut n/a
ERD -1.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
COSCO SHIPPING ORCHID · 033W · COSU/LP1 ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
ONE MADRID · 029W · ONEY/EC3 ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 13
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 12
ERD +0.0d
CY -1.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Compressed Elevated
ALTAMIRA EXPRESS · 619E · HLCU/TEX ERD May 1 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut n/a
ERD -1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
BASLE EXPRESS · 619W · HLCU/US4 ERD May 1 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 2 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
NILEDUTCH LION · 6214 · HLCU/TPI ERD May 5 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut n/a
ERD -1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
X PRESS ANTLIA · 016E · COSU/AL8 ERD May 3 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
COLOMBO EXPRESS · 619W · HLCU/US2 ERD May 3 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
MSC KATYA R. · NN618A · MSCU/BLT ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 21
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 21
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 26420N · COLUMBIA COASTAL/BARGE ERD May 7 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK KANSAS · 617W · MAEU/801 ERD May 2 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 2 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
POLAR MEXICO · 620S · MAEU/NAE ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Seattle · USSEA · 5 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
MSC ATHOS · 619R · MSCU/CALIFORNIA EXPRESS ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 5
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +6.0d
CY +2.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Compressed High
KOTA LUKIS · 2603W · SMC/ ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 6
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 6
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
LONG BEACH EXPRESS · 620S · HLCU/PANZ ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 12
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 12
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC CARLOTTA · 620R · MSCU/CHINOOK ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 12
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 12
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
NADI CHIEF · 011W · WSL/ ERD May 11 | CY Cut May 12
-> ERD May 11 | CY Cut May 12
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Los Angeles · USLAX · 18 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
PRESIDENT REAGAN · 0DBOEW1MA · CMDU/EX1APL ERD Apr 21 | CY Cut May 6
-> ERD Apr 21 | CY Cut Jun 2
ERD +0.0d
CY +27.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
EVER LASTING · 1215W · EGLV/HBB ERD Apr 15 | CY Cut Apr 20
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +16.0d
CY +17.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion High
PRESIDENT CARTER · 0DBO8W1MA · CMDU/EX1APL ERD May 14 | CY Cut May 19
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 12
ERD -7.0d
CY -7.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
SEASPAN BENEFACTOR · 0075 · ONEY/075W ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 1
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 5
ERD +1.5d
CY +4.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift High
EVER FUTURE · 0018-032W · EGLV/ ERD Apr 24 | CY Cut May 1
-> ERD Apr 27 | CY Cut May 5
ERD +3.0d
CY +4.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
CMA CGM FLORIDA · 0GVMJW1MA · CMDU/EXX ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +4.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
CMA CGM J MADISON · 1TUHXW1MA · CMDU/LP3 ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +4.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
EVER MAGIC · 1451-007W · EGLV/ ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +3.0d
CY +3.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion Elevated
SEASPAN GANGES · 620W · MAEU/706 ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 6
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
NYK NEBULA · 092E · ONEY/AL5 ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 12
ERD +1.0d
CY +1.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
COLORADO EXPRESS · 619W · MAEU/707 ERD Apr 28 | CY Cut May 4
-> ERD Apr 28 | CY Cut May 4
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
CONTI CONQUEST · 0035 · ONEY/035W ERD Apr 27 | CY Cut Apr 28
-> ERD Apr 27 | CY Cut Apr 28
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
CORCOVADO · 616W · MAEU/ ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
GUTHORM MAERSK · 620W · MAEU/708 ERD Apr 28 | CY Cut May 4
-> ERD Apr 28 | CY Cut May 4
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
HMM AQUAMARINE · 011W · ONEY/ ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
HMM HANUL · 0025 · ONEY/025W ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9
-> ERD Dec 4 | CY Cut Dec 9
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK ALGOL · 619W · MAEU/706 ERD Apr 24 | CY Cut Apr 30
-> ERD Apr 24 | CY Cut Apr 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
ZIM FALCON · 017W · ZIMU/ZX2 ERD May 8 | CY Cut May 12
-> ERD May 8 | CY Cut May 12
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Oakland · USOAK · 14 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
JANET MARIE · 074W · PHH/ ERD Apr 23 | CY Cut Apr 29
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 13
ERD +14.0d
CY +14.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion High
WAN HAI A12 · 010W · WHLC/ ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +0.0d
CY +3.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
EVER LOGIC · 1216-084W · EGLV/CPS ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 5
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +2.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
EDISON · 1TUHT · CMDU/CJX ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 7
ERD -1.0d
CY -1.4d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
EVER FUTURE · 0018-032W · EGLV/CPS ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +1.0d
CY +1.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
HMM HANUL · 025W · HDMU/ ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
ERD -1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
GUTHORM MAERSK · 620W · MAEU/708 ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 12
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 13
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.6d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
PRESIDENT MONROE · 0DBO6W1MA · CMDU/EX1APL ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +0.0d
CY -0.4d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
EVER FINE · 1217-027W · EGLV/Ocean-Going Ad Hoc call Europe(OGEU) ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 12
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 12
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
EVER MAGNA · 1450-004W · EGLV/HTW ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
HMM TOPAZ · 011W · HDMU/ ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
HTW7 · 1450-023W · EGLV/HTW ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC IVANA · GO618S · MSCU/ ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
WAN HAI A05 · 015W · WHLC/ ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 5
-> ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 5
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Newark · USEWR · 20 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
GSL ELENI · 619E · MAEU/812 ERD May 1 | CY Cut May 6
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +5.0d
CY +2.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MSC RIKKU · 618W · MSCU/ ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 5
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 4
ERD +0.0d
CY -1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Compressed High
ATLANTIC SKY · 7026 · ACLU/ ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 12
-> ERD May 7 | CY Cut May 13
ERD +0.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
NEVZAT KALKAVAN · 0USC8E1TK · HLCU/AL5 ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +1.0d
CY +1.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
AMSTERDAM EXPRESS · 620E · MAEU/810 ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
GJERTRUD MAERSK · 620W · MAEU/712 ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
LUDWIGSHAFEN EXPRESS · 620W · MAEU/716 ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK LUZ · 618W · MAEU/711 ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK MONTE ALEGRE · 620S · MAEU/UHC ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK MONTE VERDE · 617S · MAEU/84D ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK NACALA · 620S · MAEU/U7J ERD May 8 | CY Cut May 12
-> ERD May 8 | CY Cut May 12
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK NOMAZWE · 617W · MAEU/84W ERD May 12 | CY Cut May 13
-> ERD May 12 | CY Cut May 13
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC GABON · 619E · MSCU/ ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC GUERNSEY V · 619A · MSCU/ ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC JUBILEE IX · 620E · MSCU/ ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC MIRELLA R · 618A · MSCU/ ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 4
-> ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 4
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC NERISSA V · 620A · MSCU/ ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC ORIANE · 619R · MSCU/ ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
PL GERMANY · 620E · MAEU/803 ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 5 | CY Cut May 8
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
WAN HAI A13 · W009 · HLCU/AL5 ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Tacoma · USTIW · 3 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
ONE OWL · 0033 · ONEY/033W ERD Apr 29 | CY Cut May 4
-> ERD May 3 | CY Cut May 6
ERD +4.0d
CY +2.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
VIENNA EXPRESS · 620W · MAEU/WC4 ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 8
-> ERD May 4 | CY Cut May 7
ERD +0.0d
CY -0.7d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
CHARLOTTE SCHULTE · 611 · ONEY/PN1 ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 11
-> ERD May 6 | CY Cut May 11
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

6. Weekly Signal Flags

  • MSCU/INDUSA: 2 of this carrier-service's 2 vessels this week classified High.
  • MSCU/LONESTAR: 2 of this carrier-service's 2 vessels this week classified High.
  • ONEY/EC4: 2 of this carrier-service's 2 vessels this week classified High.
  • CMDU/VICTORY: 2 of this carrier-service's 2 vessels this week classified High.
  • MSCU/GOX: 2 of this carrier-service's 4 vessels this week classified High.

7. Ports to Watch

Savannah (USSAV) warrants extra buffer this week. 68.6% of vessels classified High and 60.0% showed late-stage movement across 35 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.

Long Beach (USLGB) warrants extra buffer this week. 36.4% of vessels classified High and 45.5% showed late-stage movement across 11 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.


8. Close

Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 17 May 2026. For monthly context, see the current-month VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.


Appendix A

Stability classification thresholds and the late-stage flag definition are maintained internally and held consistent across publications. They live in the internal methodology appendix and are not published.