THE LOADED BOX · SAFE-TO-GATE WEEKLY EDITION

Safe-to-Gate Weekly - Week of July 4, 2026

Vessel-level signals from the past seven days: where schedules moved, which ports warrant extra buffer, and what the week ahead likely holds.

Published July 6, 2026 · Safe-to-Gate Weekly v1.1

Safe-to-Gate Weekly

Sunday 28 June 2026 through Saturday 4 July 2026

Published: Monday 6 July 2026 URL: /loaded-box/weekly/2026-06-28/ Framework TradeLanes Safe-to-Gate Weekly v1.1 · Data baseline 2026-07-08 (100%-coverage mart) · Status Operator-facing


1. Weekly Note

Between Sunday 28 June 2026 and Saturday 4 July 2026, 169 vessel-voyages left U.S. export gateways. Most held their shape through the week; a share did not. Tacoma ran the least settled - 66.7% of its vessels sat in the High band, and 66.7% were still moving inside the late-stage window. The single widest move was ONE MAESTRO 0086 at Los Angeles: ERD +18.5d and CY Cut +15.6d, the whole cargo receiving window shifting as a unit. Every vessel that departed is listed below with its observed ERD and CY Cut shift.


2. Signal, Not Verdict

Safe-to-Gate Weekly surfaces motion, not conclusions. Every vessel that departed this week is listed below with observed ERD and CY Cut shifts, a late-stage flag, and a stability classification. These are observational. Whether this week's pattern reflects structural instability requires monthly context, see the VSSI Monthly for measurement, the Safe-to-Gate Monthly for diagnosis.


3. Port Summary

Port Vessels this week % High % Late-stage Dominant direction Port stability
USTIW Tacoma 6 66.7% 66.7% Mixed High
USSAV Savannah 28 46.4% 46.4% Mixed Elevated
USEWR Newark 17 23.5% 23.5% Late-biased Elevated
USLAX Los Angeles 17 17.6% 23.5% Late-biased Elevated
USHOU Houston 30 13.3% 20.0% Mixed Elevated
USSEA Seattle 8 12.5% 25.0% Late-biased Moderate
USORF Norfolk 28 7.1% 14.3% Mixed Moderate
USOAK Oakland 16 6.2% 50.0% Mixed Elevated
USLGB Long Beach 11 0.0% 18.2% Mixed Elevated
USNYC New York 8 0.0% 12.5% Mixed Stable

Covered ports: 10 U.S. export gateways. Ports with zero departures in the week window are omitted per framework Section 6.


Terminal Volatility Signals (Safe-to-Gate leading layer)

Three forward-looking signal layers, read together with the per-port tables below. They answer the exporter's core question - is this terminal's receiving window stable enough to commit dropoff, or is pressure building that will move it?

Port Quarterly volatility Revision-density early-warning Convergence pressure (vessels on shared dates) Upstream (previous-port) pressure
Tacoma (USTIW) Elevated (#2), Elevated (#3) - up to 3 vessels (Moderate) 19 vessels mismatched at prior port, ETA slipping ~122h
Savannah (USSAV) Moderate (#5), Stable (#21) - 8 vessels converged (High); 33% late-stage n/a (West-Coast coverage)
Newark (USEWR) Moderate (#10), Stable (#23) - up to 4 vessels (Moderate) n/a (West-Coast coverage)
Los Angeles (USLAX) High (#1), Elevated (#4) - up to 4 vessels (Moderate) 59 vessels mismatched at prior port, ETA slipping ~233h · PRE-CASCADE
Houston (USHOU) Moderate (#8), Moderate (#9) - 7 vessels converged (High); 7% late-stage n/a (West-Coast coverage)
Seattle (USSEA) Moderate (#13), Stable (#22) - up to 3 vessels (Moderate) 38 vessels mismatched at prior port, ETA slipping ~295h
Norfolk (USORF) Moderate (#12), Stable (#18) - 5 vessels converged (High); 20% late-stage n/a (West-Coast coverage)
Oakland (USOAK) Moderate (#11), Stable (#15) - up to 4 vessels (Moderate) 127 vessels mismatched at prior port, ETA slipping ~189h
Long Beach (USLGB) Moderate (#6), Stable (#17) - up to 4 vessels (Moderate) 92 vessels mismatched at prior port, ETA slipping ~368h
New York (USNYC) Moderate (#7), Stable (#16) - 6 vessels converged (High); 42% late-stage n/a (West-Coast coverage)

How to read this. Quarterly volatility is the terminal's standing reliability tier (the neutral, published Terminal Volatility Index). Revision-density early-warning flags a terminal running sustained above its own recent baseline - a change signal, so a consistently busy terminal shows pressure through convergence rather than here. Convergence pressure counts vessels bunching onto shared receiving dates before the revisions fire - a capacity signal that precedes the cascade. Upstream pressure (West-Coast transpacific only) flags vessels already running behind at their previous port, the earliest warning that a US receiving window will move. None of these is a verdict; they tell you where to tighten the commit and rebuild contingency.


4. Quick Scan Layer

  • Tacoma: 66.7% late-stage movement across 6 vessels.
  • Oakland: 50.0% late-stage movement across 16 vessels.
  • Savannah: 46.4% late-stage movement across 28 vessels.
  • Seattle: 25.0% late-stage movement across 8 vessels.
  • Newark: 23.5% late-stage movement across 17 vessels.

5. Per-Port Vessel Tables

Tacoma · USTIW · 6 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
YM MASCULINITY · 0106 · ONEY/106W ERD Jun 2 | CY Cut Jun 17
-> ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +12.3d
CY +9.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Compressed High
HMM MIR · 0021 · ONEY/021W ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 17
-> ERD Jun 16 | CY Cut Jun 24
ERD -0.3d
CY +7.3d
Yes (inside 24h) Mixed High
VIENNA EXPRESS · 627W · MAEU/WC4 ERD Jun 16 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jul 2
ERD +7.0d
CY +3.3d
Yes (inside 24h) Compressed High
CHARLOTTE SCHULTE · 612 · ONEY/PN1 ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD -3.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
EVER EAGLE · 0479-196W · EGLV/Transpacific Northwest Service(TPN) ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
YM WEALTH · 0191 · ONEY/191W ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Savannah · USSAV · 28 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
ZIM PEARL · 10W · ZIMU/MEMERALD ERD Jun 12 | CY Cut Jun 18
-> ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +7.0d
CY +7.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion High
MSC YOKOHAMA · IU626 · MSCU/INDUS ERD Jun 16 | CY Cut Jun 22
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +7.0d
CY +7.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion Elevated
MSC NOA · IV620 · MSCU/INDUS2 ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut Jun 20
-> ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +5.0d
CY +6.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion High
HYUNDAI EARTH · 055W · ONEY/PEC1 ERD Jun 14 | CY Cut Jun 20
-> ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +5.0d
CY +5.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Late expansion High
COSCO FAITH · 076W · COSU/OALP1 ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 23
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 27
ERD +4.0d
CY +4.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Late expansion High
EVER FOREVER · 037W · EGLV/OAAWE4 ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +4.0d
CY +4.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion Elevated
TUCAPEL · 6220 · HLCU/INDAMEX ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +4.0d
CY +4.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion Elevated
MSC AGAMEMNON · MG623 · MSCU/MMEDGULF ERD Jun 27 | CY Cut Jul 3
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD -3.0d
CY -3.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
HMM SAPPHIRE · 011W · HDMU/PEC2 ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
-> ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +2.0d
CY +2.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift High
ONE EAGLE · 038W · ONEY/PEC3 ERD Jun 27 | CY Cut Jul 3
-> ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jul 1
ERD -2.0d
CY -2.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
ZIM THAILAND · 16W · ZIMU/MEMERALD ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 27
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +2.0d
CY +2.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MAERSK IDAHO · 626E · MAEU/GTEX ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 27
ERD -1.0d
CY -2.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MSC DURBAN IV · FE626 · MSCU/MEAGLE ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 27
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +1.0d
CY +2.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MAERSK SKARSTIND · 626W · MAEU/GTP11US1 ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 23
-> ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
ERD +1.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MSC LUANDA VIII · MZ625 · MSCU/EMUSA ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 23
-> ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
ERD +1.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift High
GSL CHRISTEN · 625E · MAEU/GTA12AL6 ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD -1.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
HONG KONG EXPRESS · 624W · HLCU/GTP16US4 ERD Jun 14 | CY Cut Jun 20
-> ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut Jun 20
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MSC LISA · UF626 · MSCU/MUSWASA ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +1.0d
CY +1.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
NORDAMELIA · RPMAS · CMDU/RTWSB ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 27
ERD +1.0d
CY +1.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
ONE HAWK · 035W · ONEY/PEC3 ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift High
OOCL TOKYO · 144E · OOLU/TA1AL6 ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
ANTWERPEN EXPRESS · 625W · HLCU/GTP16US4 ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 27
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 27
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
CMA CGM PREGOLIA · RPLPN · CMDU/RTWNB ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 30
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MARGARETE SCHULTE · 627S · MAEU/SAE ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jul 1
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jul 1
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC AGAMEMNON VIII · MG623 · MSCU/MMEDGULF ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 30
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC GHANA · MG623 · MSCU/MMEDGULF ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
TRITON · 047W · EGLV/OAAUE ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
YANTIAN EXPRESS · 626E · HLCU/GTA2AL3 ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Newark · USEWR · 17 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
MSC BRASILIA VII · 626W · MSCU/ ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 22
-> ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +3.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
KUALA LUMPUR EXPRESS · 627W · MAEU/712 ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MARATHOPOLIS · 627E · MAEU/812 ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jul 1
-> ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jul 1
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
PORT EVERGLADES EXPRESS · 627S · MAEU/U7J ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jun 30
-> ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
ALTAMIRA EXPRESS · 627E · MAEU/810 ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
BREMEN · 627R · MSCU/ ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jun 30
-> ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
GSL CHRISTEL ELISABETH · 627E · MAEU/AL6 ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK MONTE ALEGRE · 627S · MAEU/AL6 ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK MONTE VERDE · 624S · MAEU/AL6 ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC CAROLINA · 625A · MSCU/ ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC FAIRFIELD · 627E · MSCU/ ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC LUCY · 626R · MSCU/ ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC RESILIENT III · 624R · MSCU/ ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC ROSARIA · 627A · MSCU/ ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jun 30
-> ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
PRAGUE EXPRESS · 2534W · HLCU/AL5 ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
SAN FELIX · 625W · MAEU/AL6 ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
TANGIER EXPRESS · 627W · MAEU/716 ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Los Angeles · USLAX · 17 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
ONE MAESTRO · 0086 · ONEY/086W ERD Jun 3 | CY Cut Jun 8
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 24
ERD +18.5d
CY +15.6d
Yes (inside 72h) Compressed High
CMA CGM MANTA RAY · 0GVMXW1MA · CMDU/EXX ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +8.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed High
PRESIDENT CARTER · 0DBOMW1MA · CMDU/EX1APL ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 23
-> ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +7.0d
CY +7.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Late expansion High
EVER MOST · 1457-009W · EGLV/ ERD Jun 12 | CY Cut Jun 22
-> ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut Jun 22
ERD +3.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MAERSK YELLOWSTONE · 0Y1FJS1MA · MAEU/PCX ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut Jul 2
-> ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut Jul 2
ERD +0.0d
CY -0.2d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
APL DUBLIN · 0M703W1MA · CMDU/MTE ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
EVER MAGUS · 1458-007W · EGLV/ ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
GUSTAV MAERSK · 626W · MAEU/ ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
-> ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
HMM RUBY · 013W · ONEY/ ERD Jun 12 | CY Cut Jun 18
-> ERD Jun 12 | CY Cut Jun 18
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
HMM RUBY · 0013 · HY/013W ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 5
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 5
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK ALGOL · 627W · MAEU/ ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK MAMMOTH · 0Y1M5S1MA · MAEU/PCX ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MOL PROFICIENCY · 254W · ONEY/VSE ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
NYK VESTA · 0094 · ONEY/094W ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 5
-> ERD Apr 30 | CY Cut May 5
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
ONE HUMBER · 0103 · ONEY/103W ERD Apr 2 | CY Cut Apr 7
-> ERD Apr 2 | CY Cut Apr 7
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
REN JIAN 20 · 018W · ONEY/EXW ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
ZIM ALBATROSS · 015W · ZIMU/ZX2 ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jun 30
-> ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Houston · USHOU · 30 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
TIANJIN · 61W · ZIMU/LONESTAR ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut Jun 19
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +6.0d
CY +6.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion Elevated
TIANJIN · 61W · ZIMU/LONESTAR ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut Jun 19
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +6.0d
CY +6.0d
No (outside 72h) Late expansion Elevated
MSC YORK VII · IV625R · MSCU/INDUSA ERD Jun 16 | CY Cut Jun 22
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +5.0d
CY +3.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Compressed High
MSC YORK VII · IV625R · MSCU/INDUSA ERD Jun 16 | CY Cut Jun 22
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +5.0d
CY +3.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Compressed High
CONTI ANNAPURNA · 022W · ONEY/EC4 ERD Jun 16 | CY Cut Jun 22
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +5.0d
CY +3.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
CONTI ANNAPURNA · 022W · ONEY/EC4 ERD Jun 16 | CY Cut Jun 22
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +5.0d
CY +3.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MAERSK SANA · 626W · MAEU/TP15 ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 23
ERD -4.0d
CY -3.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MAERSK SANA · 626W · MAEU/TP15 ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 23
ERD -4.0d
CY -3.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MAERSK KANSAS · 627E · MAEU/AL2 ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD -1.0d
CY -4.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MAERSK KANSAS · 627E · MAEU/AL2 ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD -1.0d
CY -4.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MSC EXPRESS III · LE626A · MSCU/GOX ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +3.0d
CY +1.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MSC EXPRESS III · LE626A · MSCU/GOX ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +3.0d
CY +1.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MSC TIANSHAN · MG625E · MSCU/MEDGULF ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +1.0d
CY +3.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MSC TIANSHAN · MG625E · MSCU/MEDGULF ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +1.0d
CY +3.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MAERSK CHAMBAL · 626S · MAEU/SCS ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jul 1
-> ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY -2.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MAERSK CHAMBAL · 626S · MAEU/SCS ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jul 1
-> ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY -2.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
COSCO VIETNAM · 108W · COSU/GME ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
-> ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
COSCO VIETNAM · 108W · COSU/GME ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
-> ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
HERMANN SCHULTE · NH626R · MSCU/MEX GULF ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
HERMANN SCHULTE · NH626R · MSCU/MEX GULF ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
AIAS · 0YKDGS1MA · CMDU/YUKA ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
AIAS · 0YKDGS1MA · CMDU/YUKA ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
CMA CGM SAMBHAR · 0GBG2S1MA · CMDU/BRAZEX ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
CMA CGM SAMBHAR · 0GBG2S1MA · CMDU/BRAZEX ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK NANSHA · 627W · MSCU/TP15 ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK NANSHA · 627W · MSCU/TP15 ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
SEASPAN EMISSARY · 625E · HLCU/MGX ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
SEASPAN EMISSARY · 625E · HLCU/MGX ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
YM MODERATION · 083W · ONEY/EC4 ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
YM MODERATION · 083W · ONEY/EC4 ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Seattle · USSEA · 8 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
CMA CGM BYBLOS · 0TNUO · CMDU/CPNW ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 18
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +8.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift High
CMA CGM SHANGHAI · 0TNIQ · CMDU/CPNW ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jul 2
ERD +0.0d
CY +7.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
MSC IVANA · 626R · MSCU/CHINOOK ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
COSCO SANTOS · 100E · COSU/ ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK YOSEMITE · 627S · MAEU/ ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jun 30
-> ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC BOSTON · 627R · MSCU/CALIFORNIA EXPRESS ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jun 30
-> ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
OOCL SEATTLE · 043W · OOLU/PNW1 ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 30
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
SM TIANJIN · 2604W · SMC/ ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Norfolk · USORF · 28 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
MSC LUCY · MZ626R · MSCU/EMUSA ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +8.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift High
MSC GIOVANNA VII · IV621A · MSCU/INDX ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +7.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
TUCAPEL · 6220 · HLCU/TPI ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +6.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
EVER MAST · 1358W · EGLV/LP2 ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +4.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
EVER MACRO · 1359W · EGLV/LP2 ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +2.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MSC CANDICE · MZ631R · MSCU/EMUSA ERD Jul 22 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jul 24 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +2.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
HMM SAPPHIRE · 011W · HDMU/EC2 ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Compressed Elevated
MSC VITTORIA · GU626E · MSCU/AMERICA ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
ONE SATISFACTION · 003E · ONEY/TA2 ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD -1.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
ATLANTIC SEA · ATE7126 · ACLU/ACL-A ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MSC DOMNA X · NO626E · MSCU/NEUSEC2 ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MSC NIGERIA · NN625A · MSCU/BLT ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut n/a
ERD -1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
WAN HAI A08 · W016 · WHLC/AA7 ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
X PRESS ANTLIA · 017E · COSU/AL8 ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
ALTAMIRA EXPRESS · 627E · HLCU/TEX ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
COLUMBIA FREEDOM · 427E · CCBZ/BAL ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
GSL C ELISABETH · 627E · MAEU/TA3 ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
GSL ELENI · 626E · MAEU/AL6 ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK GARONNE · 624W · MAEU/801 ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK IOWA · 626E · MAEU/801 ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MAERSK PITTSBURGH · 625E · MAEU/MECL ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC AUDREY · FD623E · MSCU/DRAGON ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC GABON · NO625E · MSCU/NEUSEC2 ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
OOCL TOKYO · 144E · OOLU/AMERIGO ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
POLAR BRASIL · 627S · MAEU/NAE ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
RICHMOND EXPRESS II · 938W · JRBU/64EX ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 20 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
SOUTHAMPTON EXPRESS · 626W · HLCU/US4 ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
TSINGTAO EXPRESS · 626W · HLCU/US2 ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut n/a
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut n/a
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Oakland · USOAK · 16 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
EVER LOGIC · 1223-085W · EGLV/ ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +6.0d
CY +2.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MSC TAYLOR · 626S · MSCU/SENTOSA ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 18
-> ERD Jun 15 | CY Cut Jun 23
ERD -3.0d
CY +5.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Mixed Elevated
EVER MOST · 1457-009W · EGLV/Asia-U.S. Southwest Coast Express Service(HTW) ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +2.0d
CY +4.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
MSC MELATILDE · 627S · MSCU/SENTOSA ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD -2.0d
CY -0.4d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
WAN HAI A01 · 018W · WHLC/ ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 30
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +1.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Compressed Elevated
PRESIDENT MONROE · 0DBOKW1MA · CMDU/EX1APL ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY -0.4d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift High
MAERSK YELLOWSTONE · 626S · MAEU/067 ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY -0.4d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
PRESIDENT GRANT · 0DBOIW1MA · CMDU/EX1APL ERD Jun 16 | CY Cut Jun 23
-> ERD Jun 16 | CY Cut Jun 23
ERD +0.0d
CY -0.4d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
NPDL CALIFORNIA · 2611S · NPD/ ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jul 1
-> ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jul 1
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
Yes (inside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
APL DANUBE · 0M701 · APL/ ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
GEORGE III · 102W · HLCU/ ERD Jun 11 | CY Cut Jun 17
-> ERD Jun 11 | CY Cut Jun 17
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
GUSTAV MAERSK · 626W · MAEU/708 ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 30
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
HMM RUBY · 013W · HDMU/ ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
ONE FRIENDSHIP · 012W · ONEY/MS2 ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
WAN HAI A09 · 016W · WHLC/ ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
-> ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
Wan Hai 511 · 110W · WHLC/PS8 ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

Long Beach · USLGB · 11 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
COSCO AFRICA · 102 · COSU/CEN ERD Jun 16 | CY Cut Jun 22
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +6.0d
CY +4.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
XIN FEI ZHOU · 110 · COSU/PSX ERD Jun 16 | CY Cut Jun 19
-> ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 23
ERD +2.0d
CY +4.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Elevated
OOCL ROTTERDAM · 164 · OOLU/PSX ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 30
ERD +2.0d
CY +1.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
MSC FAITH · 626S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
-> ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Moderate drift Elevated
MSC MELATILDE · 627S · MSCU/SENTOSA ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 23
-> ERD Jun 17 | CY Cut Jun 22
ERD +0.0d
CY -1.0d
Yes (inside 24h) Compressed Elevated
CAPE TAINARO · 621A · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jul 1
-> ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jul 1
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC ELIANA · 625R · MSCU/CALIFORNIA EXPRESS ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jul 1
-> ERD Jun 25 | CY Cut Jul 1
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC LYSE V · 627S · MSCU/PEARL ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
MSC MELATILDE · FV627S · MSCU/ORIENT SERVICE ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
-> ERD Jun 18 | CY Cut Jun 24
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
OOCL DAFFODIL · 005 · OOLU/PVCS ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 19 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
SEALAND BALBOA · 627S · MAEU/ ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jul 1
-> ERD Jun 26 | CY Cut Jul 1
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

New York · USNYC · 8 vessels this week

Vessel · Voyage · Carrier/Service CRW (Original -> Actual) Shift Late? Outcome Stability
ONE IBIS · 037 · ONEY/EC2 ERD Jun 16 | CY Cut Jun 21
-> ERD Jun 22 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +6.0d
CY +4.0d
No (outside 72h) Compressed Elevated
CMA CGM SURABAYA · 627E/W · CMDU/CAGML ERD Jun 28 | CY Cut Jul 3
-> ERD Jun 28 | CY Cut Jul 1
ERD +0.0d
CY -1.7d
Yes (inside 72h) Compressed Elevated
ONE MUNCHEN · 044 · ONEY/EC3 Single call (discharge and load) ERD Jun 24 | CY Cut Jun 29
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 28
ERD -1.0d
CY -1.0d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
CMA CGM ARISTOTE · 627E/W · CMDU/CAGML ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY -0.7d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
CMA CGM GREEN · 627E/W · CMDU/RTWPAN ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 30
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 29
ERD +0.0d
CY -0.7d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
CMA CGM KAILAS · 625E/W · CMDU/CAGML ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 21 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY -0.7d
No (outside 72h) Moderate drift Moderate
MSC Giovanna VII · IV621A · MSCU/INDUSA ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 26
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable
YM TOGETHER · 022 · YMLU/EC1 ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 25
-> ERD Jun 23 | CY Cut Jun 25
ERD +0.0d
CY +0.0d
No (outside 72h) Stable Stable

6. Weekly Signal Flags

  • MAEU/TP15: 2 of this carrier-service's 2 vessels this week classified High.
  • ZIMU/MEMERALD: 2 of this carrier-service's 2 vessels this week classified High.
  • ONEY/PEC3: 2 of this carrier-service's 2 vessels this week classified High.
  • MSCU/INDUSA: 2 of this carrier-service's 3 vessels this week classified High.
  • CMDU/EX1APL: 2 of this carrier-service's 3 vessels this week classified High.

7. Ports to Watch

Tacoma (USTIW) warrants extra buffer this week. 66.7% of vessels classified High and 66.7% showed late-stage movement across 6 vessels. If the pattern holds for another week, the port carries into this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly as a structural candidate.


8. Close

Full methodology in Appendix A. Vessels flagged this week on the watch list will be evaluated in this month's Safe-to-Gate Monthly. Next Safe-to-Gate Weekly: Sunday 5 July 2026. For monthly context, see the current-month VSSI Monthly and Safe-to-Gate Monthly.


Appendix A

Stability classification thresholds and the late-stage flag definition are maintained internally and held consistent across publications. They live in the internal methodology appendix and are not published.